BSEIndia: All Stock Market News: $$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 25th Jul 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 25, 2007
Tel: 022 - 25308355 Email: mail@sachinchavan.com Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.
	Learning Center:	"If you bow at all, bow low" - Chinese Proverb

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

	Overview
	Many leading counters of this rally are overbought now. Though the Indian market shows more resilience, international cues can have depressing effect. All in all, a volatile and highly stock-specific movement may be expected with 2 days to go for settlement. Traders who remain thin may benefit from their patience.


	Nifty
	Current Spot Rate	Supports		Resistances		Trend
	Current Spot Rate	S2	S1	R1	R2	MT	ST
	4621	4380	4450	4770	4900	Bullish	Ovrbot

	MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

	Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)						Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)
	Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power, Metals						FMCG, Tech Majors, Refining majors
	Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

	Market Barometer (for short term only)
	Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

	Short term position:		Long (plus)			Short (minus)			Uninvested
	Break-up:		*Med*			*None*			*Med*


Media Schedule:		Wed, Jul 18 11:00am-12:00pm: 'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz
		Wed, Jul 18 09:40am-10:30am: Zee Business
		Wed, Jul 18 03:00pm-03:40pm: '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

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	Salient News (from public domain)
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Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

	c Cosmo Films completed target (106) amounting to 10.4% profit in 5 days. c.
	c Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.
	c BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.
	The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below. These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.
	A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

	Scrip	Break-out Point			Likely Targets		Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	Scrip	Type	Date	Price	T1	T2	Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	Patel Engg	Bullish	12-Jul	452	495	-	DCL<425	476	None	Equity
	Blue Star Inds.	Bullish	09-Jul	248	274	-	DCL<235	253	None	Equity
	Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips


	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.
	Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

	Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:							Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 -> Bullish ASI = 60-70 -> Mildly Bullish
	- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast), plotted in the grid above							ASI = 40-60 -> Flat ASI = 30-40 -> Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30 -> Bearish
	Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

	How to Use
	The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.
	The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if MT trend is Bearish *AND* ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.
	The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

	Scrip	CMP	Medium Term (MT)				Short Term (ST)
	Scrip	CMP	ASI	Trend	Target		ASI	Trend	Target
	Nifty	4621	98	Bullish	4900		97	Ovrbot	-
	ACC	1116	74	Bullish	1180		57	Flat	1070-1160
	Bajaj Auto	2446	38	Flat	2100-2675		86	Bullish	2520
	BPCL	310	21	Bearish	280		10	Bearish	295
	Bharti Airtel	933	95	Bullish	960		93	Bullish	960
	BHEL	1832	98	Bullish	1800		91	Ovrbot	-
	Century Text	738	88	Bullish	825		57	Bullish	790
	Cipla	188	26	Flat	175-260		7	Bearish	180
	Dabur	101	64	Bullish	115		29	Corr Dn	-
	Dr Reddy's	672	48	Flat	550-810		41	Flat	650-690
	GAIL	337	90	Bullish	360		96	Ovrbot	-
	Grasim	3028	83	Bullish	3220		87	Ovrbot	-
	Guj Ambuja	135	74	Bullish	148		56	Flat	130-140
	HCL Tech	315	57	Flat	285-360		10	Bearish	305
	HDFC Bank	1249	88	Bullish	1280		100	Bullish	1280
	HDFC	1973	86	Bullish	2250		64	Flat	1885-2025
	Hero Honda	697	33	Bearish	615		61	Corr Up	-
	Hind Lever	200	38	Flat	175-240		49	Flat	195-210
	Hind Petro	254	21	Bearish	235		14	Bearish	235
	Hindalco	187	71	Bullish	210		90	Ovrbot	-
	I - Flex	2343	71	Bullish	2660		9	Corr Dn	-
	ICICI Bank	970	98	Bullish	1015		34	Flat	940-1000
	IDBI	109	81	Bullish	130		31	Corr Dn	-
	Indian Hotels	141	64	Flat	130-160		16	Bearish	140
	IPCL	381	100	Bullish	420		100	Ovrbot	-
	Infosys	1975	57	Flat	1820-2280		57	Flat	1900-2030
	ITC	152	31	Bearish	135		17	Bearish	148
	Jet Airways	769	25	Flat	700-950		30	Flat	730-815
	L&T	2670	98	Bullish	2800		86	Ovrbot	-
	M&M	795	55	Flat	590-860		53	Flat	770-840
	Maruti	820	43	Flat	720-860		47	Flat	800-845
	Nalco	290	86	Bullish	330		51	Flat	280-300
	ONGC	917	69	Bullish	1040		56	Flat	865-930
	PNB	565	79	Bullish	625		59	Flat	550-590
	Ranbaxy	345	26	Bearish	330		19	Bearish	330
	Rel. Capital	1200	98	Bullish	1340		63	Ovrbot	-
	Rel. Energy	775	81	Bullish	860		100	Ovrbot	-
	Reliance Ind	1913	98	Bullish	1980		91	Ovrbot	-
	Satyam	518	93	Bullish	530		84	Bullish	530
	SCI	221	95	Bullish	230		83	Ovrbot	-
	SBI	1576	100	Bullish	1840		49	Flat	1530-1640
	Steel Authority	161	100	Bullish	170		97	Bullish	170
	Tata Chem	262	81	Bullish	280		76	Bullish	280
	Tata Steel	722	86	Bullish	740		100	Bullish	740
	Tata Motors	747	45	Flat	660-920		49	Flat	725-780
	Tata Power	686	93	Bullish	710		64	Flat	655-700
	TCS	1172	45	Flat	1050-1250		57	Flat	1160-1200
	VSNL	480	93	Bullish	525		44	Flat	465-500
	Wipro	506	40	Flat	435-630		23	Bearish	480
	Zee Telefilms	334	100	Bullish	350		70	Bullish	350
\

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot
	Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.
	Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same



Disclosure:
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient & reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author. - Sachin Chavan