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Wednesday, June 11, 2008

DG - Wednesday Telefolio : Lakshmi Electrical Control System : May 21

Lakshmi Electrical Control Systems

Electrifying growth

The company is consistently growing its net profit at a CAGR of 50%

Buy	Lakshmi Electrical Control Systems
BSE Code	504258
NSE Code	Not listed
Bloomberg	LKEC@IN
Reuter	LKEL.BO
52-week High/Low	Rs 589 / Rs 241
Current Price	Rs 333 (as on 21st May 2008)

Lakshmi Electrical Control Systems (LECSL) manufactures contactors, thermal overload relays, electrical control panels and industrial plastic components. The demand for switchgear products tracks industrial capex and growth in building construction, while the latter tracks textile machinery usage.

Part of the LMW group

LECSL comes from a very respected south based LMW group. The LMW group is one of the most respected groups in India. The group’s flagship company is Lakshmi Machine Works (LMW). LMW has 60% market share in the domestic Textile Spinning Machinery Industry.

LECSL’s plastic division of the company was set up to support the manufacture of electrical mountings and components for switchgears. Due to excess capacity of machines they are used to manufacture engineering plastic components. The major buyers are Lakshmi Machine Works. The company manufactures textile machinery components using engineering plastics.

Its plastic division’s activity is focused on Engineering Plastic Components. For many economic and technical reason there is an unrelenting shift from metal to plastics in almost every branch of engineering industry. Thus the scope for the company is endless.

A good bet on industrial capex as well

LECSL manufactures contactors, thermal overload relays, control relays, electrical control panels and industrial plastic components. The company has a technical collaboration with Sprecher & Schuh, Switzerland, one of the leading manufacturers of low-tension switchgear items in the world.

Apart from LMW, LECSL caters to many industrial engineering companies. Industrial engineering industry itself is seeing hectic activity and is expected to see continued buoyancy.

The major focus area of the company is into manufacturing of low voltage electrical switchgears and control panels, which is seeing unprecedented growth due to solid growth in the user industries. The low voltage switchgears are contractors, control relays and thermal overload relays. These are components used in power supply systems. All of them are used in industrial applications for power supply. It also finds application in commercial and residential buildings. Contractors are two-state (On-Off) device for repeatedly establishing an interrupting electric power circuit. Relays are electrically controlled device that causes electrical contacts to change status. Open contacts will close and closed contacts will open when rated voltage is applied to the coil of the relay.

Other electrical components include motor starters and motor control panels. Motor starters are made from contractors and thermal over load relays. The company manufactures direct on line and start delta type motor starters. The major revenue driver for the company is from control panels. The company provides customised control panels for OEM companies. These are simple control panels for motor control as well as program logic control (PLC) panels for OEM segment.

Soild performance

For the nine-months ended Dec 2007, net sales grew 58% to Rs 78.78 crore. PBT was up 52% to Rs 13.37 crore and PAT was up 44% to Rs 8.53 crore.

For the quarter ended Dec 2007, net sales grew 107% to Rs 36.03 crore. PBT was up 73% to Rs 5.02 crore and PAT was up 58% to Rs 3.31 crore.

Attractive valuation

For the FY ending March 2008, we expect LECSL to report standalone sales of Rs 114.78 crore and PAT of Rs 11.53 crore. On equity of Rs 2.46 crore and face value of Rs 10 per share, EPS works out to Rs 46.9. The share price trades at Rs 333. P/E works out to just 7.1.

Lakshmi Electrical Control Systems: Financials

	0403 (12)	0503 (12)	0603 (12)	0703 (12)	0803 (12P)
Sales	25.92	39.95	49.89	68.24	115.59
OPM (%)	16.6	20.6	20.2	20.2	20.0
OP	4.30	8.24	10.09	13.76	23.09
Other Inc	0.48	1.09	1.38	1.96	2.54
PBIDT	4.78	9.33	11.47	15.72	25.63
Interest	0.13	1.10	1.16	1.47	1.88
PBDT	4.65	8.23	10.31	14.25	23.75
Dep.	0.95	1.67	2.29	2.54	5.85
PBT	3.70	6.56	8.02	11.71	17.90
Tax	1.43	2.30	2.72	3.83	6.38
PAT	2.27	4.26	5.30	7.88	11.53
EPS (Rs)*	9.2	17.3	21.5	32.0	46.9
* Annualised on current equity of Rs 2.46 crore. Face Value: Rs 10 Figures in Rs crore (P): projections Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

Lakshmi Electrical Control Systems: Results

	0712 (3)	0612 (3)	Var. (%)	0712 (9)	0612 (9)	Var. (%)	0703 (12)	0603 (12)	Var. (%)
Sales	36.03	17.37	107	78.78	49.77	58	68.24	49.89	37
OPM (%)	16.4	19.1		20.9	20.0		20.2	20.2
OP	5.92	3.32	78	16.45	9.95	65	13.76	10.09	36
Other I nc.	0.71	0.52	37	1.75	1.35	30	1.96	1.38	42
PBIDT	6.63	3.84	73	18.20	11.30	61	15.72	11.47	37
Interest	0.40	0.40	0	1.28	0.97	32	1.47	1.16	27
PBDT	6.23	3.44	81	16.92	10.33	64	14.25	10.31	38
Dep.	1.21	0.54	124	3.55	1.54	131	2.54	2.29	11
PBT	5.02	2.90	73	13.37	8.79	52	11.71	8.02	46
Tax	1.58	0.01	15700	4.16	2.23	87	2.91	2.82	3
Deferred Tax	0.13	0.79	-84	0.68	0.62	10	0.92	-0.10	-1020
PAT	3.31	2.10	58	8.53	5.94	44	7.88	5.30	49
EPS* (Rs)	53.8	34.1		46.2	32.2		32.0	21.5
* Annualised on current equity of Rs 2.46 crore. Face Value: Rs 10 Figures in Rs crore (P): projections Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

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DG - Friday Telefolio : Aries Agro : May 23

Aries Agro

Micro product, mage prospects

The company is a major player in micronutrients, which have tremendous growth prospects and the company is expanding capacities 5-fold to capitalise on this opportunity

Buy	Aries Agro
BSE Code	532935
NSE Code	ARIES
Bloomberg	ARIE@IN
Reuter	ARAI.BO
52-week High/Low	Rs 265 / Rs 108
Current Price	Rs 143 (as on 23rd May 2008)

Aries Agro is a major manufacturer of micronutrient and other nutritional products for plants and animals. Its range of products comprise five categories: multi-micro nutrient fertilisers, chelated micro nutrient fertilisers, specialty soluble fertilisers, anti-bacterial products for agricultural use, and nutritional products for animals.

Micronutrients contribute 60-65% of the total revenue of the company. Around 1-2% of the revenue is contributed by the feed additive business and the rest is contributed by the secondary nutrients and Nitrogen-Phosphorous-Potash (NPK’s)

The company is a pioneer in introducing chelated micronutrients and chelated zinc in the country, under the brands Agromin and Chelamin, respectively.

With four manufacturing facilities in Bangalore, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Kolkata, AAL’s total production capacity is 21,600 tonnes per annum. It has 41 products under its umbrella. Strong trademarks protect these brands. These products are sold across 375 fertilizer-consuming districts in the country. The company has 25 branches with a distribution network comprising about 4,700 distributors and 65,000 dealers across the country.

To distribute its products to the far-flung corners of the country, where it does not have a distribution network, AAL is planning to buy around 100 mobile vans at a cost of Rs 5.79 crore.

Strong player

Aries Agro has been in the business of manufacturing and marketing plant nutrients since over three decades. During this period, it has acquired strong domain expertise, which is difficult for a new entrant to replicate.

Is a dominant player in the plant-nutrient space with minimal competition from the organised players.

The company has an in-house R&D facility, equipped with infrastructure required to develop new products targeted at specific crop requirement.

The company has an established distribution network spanning 375 fertilizer-consuming districts of the country. Has 4,700 distributors and more than 65,000 dealers.

To increase capacity 5 fold to meet growing damands

A of FY 2008 the company had a capacity of 21,600 metric tonnes at around 89% capacity utilization. Now 89% capacity utilization is for a seasonal business, which means during the peak season the capacity utilization were going above 125%, that is why the company needs to rapidly scale up its capacities.

This 21,600 tonnes was split among 4 manufacturing units. This year the company is putting up 4 more. The total capacity at the end of the expansion would be 1,00,800 metric tonnes per annum.

The 4 existing plants are at Bombay, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Calcutta. The new units would be in Hyderabad (which incidentally would be its largest unit in the country), Lucknow, Ahmedabad and one in Maharashtra, near Panvel.

All these units would be operational by September 2008. So effectively in FY 2009 the company would get half of the expanded capacity.

Eying international markets

With an aim to expand its global footprint, specially the Middle East, AAL is investing Rs 7.37 crore in one of its group companies Golden Harvest Middle East (FZC), incorporated in the UAE, to convert it into a subsidiary. Golden Harvest is setting up a facility in Sharjah to manufacture chelated micronutrients with a capacity of 10,800 tonnes per annum. It is also investing Rs 2.46 crore (or 25% stake) in another company, MAPCO Fertilizer Industries Free Trade Zone Company (MAPCO). MAPCO’s distribution reach in the Middle East will be used to sell the company’s micronutrients in those markets.

This arrangement will also see Aries Agro get assured source of NPK’s from MAPCO to source it to India. As NPK’s price every where in the world is very volatile, by getting an assured source for India makes sense for it to have tied down source from the UAE which is also close to India Geographically.

By virtue of this investment in MAPCO Aries Agro will get access to their distribution network in the Middle East and the North African region, which becomes its springboard to conquer those markets. The reason why the Middle East and Africa is very attractive is that for agriculture there is no (much) soil, so which means 100% of agriculture in those areas is specialized. This has to be done with specialized agricultural technics. So because of that the products which are in Aries Agro’s portfolio, is ideally suited for those markets simply because those markets have specialized agriculture which needs specialized plant nutrients.

Moreover, the company already trades in complex fertilizers produced by MAPCO fertilizer. These fertilizers are sourced to India and Aries trades in these fertilizers in India. It already have NPK fertilizers in its range sine the year 2002 when it launched them. It has water soluble NPK’s, which it gets from a company, which had invested, in MAPCO, which is also the current supplier.

Government’s plan to set up soil testing laboratories will be a big positive

A major positive for Aries Agro, is that the government is setting up soil testing laboratories in every district of the country. That will add to the wealth of knowledge, which is available in the sector. Because today until a company like Aries Agro goes and does the testing, the farmer really does not know what is really deficient in their soil. So since the government is going and setting up such kind of labs in every district, it will reduce the company’s load to educate farmers. Moreover, those soil-testing labs will give farmers accurate information. So government in a way will do an indirect marketing for Aries Agro, because government will go and tell the farmers that there is certain deficiency in their soil, so the farmer will use the company’s products which will supplement that deficiency. Thus it will definitely has a positive impact on the company’s business.

Bouyant outlook

Indian farmlands have one of the lowest yield rates in the world. Hence, there is good scope for improvement in yields by using micronutrients. Spread of organised retail and development of farm-to-consumer supply chain will encourage better yields through use of micronutrients.

With recent scarcity and high prices in many agricultural products, focus in future is going to be on increasing productivity as the availability of land is going to remain scarce. One of the major cost effective and environment-friendly way to increase agricultural production is to encourage use of micronutrients specific to the different soil and crop patterns. The company is rightly positioned in this respect. The company uses chelation (in case of metal based micronutrients) and watersoluble (in case of non metal micronutrients) technologies which make the delivery of micronutrients environment friendly and reduces cost and dosage significantly. Moreover it makes large number of varied formulations customised for specific type of soil and crops which puts the company in a unique position of knowledge-based solution provider.

Moreover its products are not subject to price control as other fertilisers.

Growth in the use of micronutrients is directly linked to increase in awareness. Company’s efforts and government’s plans to set up soil testing laboratories is increasing the awareness and as the awareness grows, demand grows at a fast pace.

Nine months (ended December 2007) sales and net profit are already more than the FY 2007 figures

For the nine months ended December 2007, its sales and net profit stood at Rs 74.11 crore and Rs 11.05 crore respectively. In fact during the nine month ended December 2007, the company’s sales have already exceeded total sales for the entire FY 2007. Moreover, its net profit for the nine month ended December 2007 is already 27% higher than the net profit for the entire FY 2007.

High growth and attractive valuations

In FY 2008, we expect the company to register consolidated EPS of Rs 12.2. This is likely to jump to Rs 18.1 in FY 2009. The share price trades at Rs 143. P/E on FY 2009 EPS works out to just 7.9. For a fast growing company with a niche product line with high growth potential, the current P/E is low.

Aries Agro: Consolidated Financials

	0603 (12)	0703 (12)	0803 (12P)	0903 (12P)
Sales	58.39	74.05	103.01	148.21
OPM (%)	20.9	22.7	27.6	28.0
OP	12.18	16.81	28.46	41.56
Other inc.	0.04	0.12	0.18	0.22
PBIDT	12.22	16.93	28.64	41.78
Interest	1.7	2.48	3.84	4.48
PBDT	10.52	14.45	24.80	37.30
Dep.	0.28	0.48	0.63	1.14
PBT	10.24	13.97	24.17	36.16
Tax	3.57	5.28	8.26	12.65
PAT	6.67	8.69	15.91	23.50
EPS* (Rs)	5.1	6.7	12.2	18.1
* on current equity of Rs 13 crore; Face value Rs 10. (P): Projections # EPS can not be annualised due to seasonality. Figures in Rs crore Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

Aries Agro: Consolidated Results

	0712 (3)	0612 (9)	Var. (%)	0712 (9)	0612 (9)	Var. (%)	0703 (12)	0803 (12P)
Sales	28.90	23.54	23	74.11	--	--	74.05	103.01
OPM (%)	30.1	27.5		26.7	--	--	22.7	27.6
OP	8.70	6.47	34	19.77	--	--	16.81	28.46
Other inc.	0.06	0.04	45	0.12	--	--	0.12	0.18
PBIDT	8.75	6.51	35	19.89	--	--	16.93	28.64
Interest	1.12	0.76	47	2.72	--	--	2.48	3.84
PBDT	7.63	5.75	33	17.17	--	--	14.45	24.80
Dep.	0.16	0.13	31	0.47	--	--	0.48	0.63
PBT	7.47	5.62	33	16.70	--	--	13.97	24.17
Tax	2.61	2.07	26	5.65	--	--	5.28	8.26
PAT	4.86	3.55	37	11.05	--	--	8.69	15.91
EPS* (Rs)	22.9	2.7		8.5	--		6.7	12.2
* on current equity of Rs 13 crore; Face value Rs 10. # EPS can not be annualised due to seasonality. Figures in Rs crore Source: Capitaline Corporate Databases

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DG - Friday Telefolio : Cummins India : May 30

Cummins India

Will get back on the consistent growth track

Catering to well diversified market segments, the company should continue to grow its sales at healthy rates and recover the profit margins, which were affected by one-time factors

Buy	Cummins India
BSE Code	500480
NSE Code	CUMMINSIND
Bloomberg	KKC@IN
Reuter	CUMM.BO
52-week High/Low	Rs 463 / Rs 265
Current Price	Rs 295 (as on 30th May 2008)

Cummins India (CIL) is an integrated engine, equipment and component manufacturer - it operates in market segments that include power generation equipment, commercial vehicles and, industrial equipment and applications (such as construction and earth moving equipment, compressors, pumps and cranes). Nearly 45% of the total sales come from sales of engines to Power Generation sector, 15% to industrial sector, 5% to Automobiles sector, 30% to exports and the rest from spare parts. In automobile sector, the company has engines based on duel fuel technology ie, natural gas and diesel. The company has won the CNG bus orders from Tata Motors of 2500 engines (each engine is worth around Rs 3-4 lakh).

Subsidiary of a strong parent

Cummins Inc. (which holds 51% equity stake in the company) is a global power leader and is a corporation of complementary business units that design, manufacture, distribute and service engines and related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handling, filtration, emission solutions and electrical power generation systems. Headquartered in Columbus, Indiana, (USA) Cummins serves customers in more than 160 countries and territories through its network of 550 company-owned and independent distributor locations and more than 5,000 dealer locations. With more than 28,000 employees worldwide,

March 2008 quarter was affected by one time factors

For the quarter ended Mar’08, the net sales grew by 33% to Rs 670.00 crore. OPM fell by 530 bps to 11.0%, which resulted in fall in operating profit by 11% to Rs 73.64 crore. However, interest declined by 64% and depreciation grew by 23% leading PBT to increase by 13% to Rs 110.61 crore. The dip in the effective tax rate (by 100 bps) helped Net Profit to grow by 15%.

The OPM of the company for the quarter ended Mar’08 stood at 11% via a vis 16.3% y.o.y. The margins were hit badly due to the following reasons (most of which are of exceptional nature): -

There was a retrospective revision in pricing of steel (pig iron) of the previous nine months during this quarter by the suppliers. As a result of which the company got hit by around 200 basis points in margins (150 due to previous nine months increase and 50 basis points for the quarter)
The Pune Municipality increased Octroi for the import of some components from 3% to 7% from Jan’08, which lead to 50 basis points reduction in margins. However, the company is confident that after negotiations with government, the same will be brought back to 3% by June’08
Exchange rate loss of Rs 27 crore (for the year and around 9 crore for the quarter as against exchange gain in the corresponding previous quarter). The exports stand around 30% of the total sales and the company is net exporter. The exports grew by 22% in dollar terms and 20% in rupee terms.
Change in product mix. The production of lower engine category (below 160 KVA capacity) was more vis a vis corresponding previous year. The low capacity engine have lower margins vis a vis heavy duty and high horse power engine. (More than 350 KVA). Presently the low engine represents 12% of sales, mid range engine (range between 160 KV-250 KV) represents 25% of sales, heavy duty engine (range 250-350 KV) represents 10%, spares contributes around 8%, while the rest is contributed by high horse power (more than 350 KV). While the trend in product mix will continue, because the demand for low horsepower engine is more and is increasing, the company will try to maintain the optimum balance within the same.

According to Mr. Anant Talaulicar, Chairman, Cummins India " 'It has been another year of very respectable performance improvement by the Company with business growing strongly in both domestic and export markets. We are investing aggressively in our people, new customer relationships, new products and additional manufacturing capacity to sustain our profitable growth. Unfortunately, as expected, the company’s bottom line performance this quarter was impacted by unprecedented increases in commodity prices over the past few months, the appreciation of the Rupee against the dollar when compared with the previous year, as well as a sudden decision by the Pune administration to raise Octroi charges on imported inputs. In spite of these adverse factors we were able to grow our profits for the quarter, compared to the corresponding quarter last year. As we look ahead, we could look forward to continued profit growth particularly if commodity prices and the exchange rate levels out.'

Capacity expansions on track

The two new manufacturing facilities for manufacturing diesel engines became operational from Jan’08 at Pirangut near Pune and one in Ranjangaon. The company had spent around Rs 100 crore for FY’08 and expects to spend another Rs 150 crore for FY’09. However there is no theoretical term of capacity as it largely depends upon the engine size. So overall, the company has mentioned that the capacity is 30% higher than the previous year.

The capacity expansions at Phaltan, near Pune is progressive beyond their expectations and the full fledge capacity will be operational by the end of this calendar year. The company will manufacture engines both for exports and for domestic marker.

Reasonable valuation

For FY 2009 we expect Cummins India to report consolidated sales of Rs 3032.38 crore, net profit of Rs 389.41 crore and consolidated EPS of Rs 19.7. Current price of Rs 295 discounts this less than 15 times.

Cummins India: Consolidated Financials

	0503 (12)	0603 (12)	0703 (12)	0803(12)	0903 (12P)
Net Sales	1490.24	1806.92	2156.83	2655.00	3032.38
OPM %	11.8	14.0	16.0	14.1	15.7
OP	176.35	252.85	345.42	373.80	474.96
Other income	67.14	64.54	91.17	131.00	134.12
PBIDT	243.49	317.39	436.59	504.80	609.08
Interest	4.13	4.52	6.46	2.50	2.64
PBDT	239.36	312.87	430.13	502.30	606.26
Depreciation	40.64	39.04	38.10	38.30	43.83
PBT	198.72	273.83	392.03	464.00	562.42
Tax	65.29	90.19	124.06	139.60	173.01
PAT	133.43	183.64	267.97	324.40	389.41
EPS (Rs)*	6.7	9.3	13.5	16.4	19.7
Annualised on current equity of Rs 39.60 crore, Face Value: Rs 2 Figures in Rs crore Source: Capitaline Corporate Database

Cummins India: Standalone Results

	0803(3)	0703(3)	Var (%)	0803(12)	0703(12)	Var (%)
Sales	670.00	504.91	33	2330.78	1840.78	27
OPM (%)	11.0	16.3		13.2	16.0
OP	73.64	82.34	-11	306.92	294.67	4
Other income	46.39	23.64	96	122.71	85.34	44
PBIDT	120.03	105.98	13	429.63	380.01	13
Interest	0.41	1.14	-64	0.67	1.41	-52
PBDT	119.62	104.84	14	428.96	378.60	13
Depreciation	9.01	7.35	23	32.96	32.60	1
PBT	110.61	97.49	13	396.00	346.00	14
Tax	35.01	31.81	10	115.31	103.95	11
Net Profit	75.60	65.68	15	280.69	242.05	16
EPS	15.3	13.3		14.2	12.2
Annualised on current equity of Rs 39.60 crore, Face Value: Rs 2 EO: Extraordinary items EPS is calculated after excluding EO and relevant tax Figures in Rs crore PL: Profit to Loss; LP: Loss to Profit Source: Capitaline Corporate Database

Cummins India: Segment Results

Standalone									Consolidated
Particulars	0803(12)	0703(03)	(%) of Total	Var (%)	0803(12)	0703(12)	(%) of Total	Var (%)	0803(12)	0703(12)	(%) of Total	Var (%)
Segment Revenue
Engine business	612.96	469.78	90	30	2129.77	1710.05	91	25	2566.86	2185.02	87	17
Others	65.01	39.81	10	63	222.43	150.58	9	48	366.86	198.80	13	85
Total Sales	677.97	509.59	100	33	2352.20	1860.63	100	26	2933.72	2383.82	100	23
Less : Inter-Segment Revenue	0.00	0.00		0	0.00	0.00		0	240.48	226.52		0
Net Sales	677.97	509.59		33	2352.20	1860.63		26	2693.24	2157.30		25
Segment Results
PBIT
Engine business	84.65	81.17	93	4	310.86	284.92	92	9	363.64	335.61	88	8
Others	6.74	5.40	7	25	28.58	16.85	8	70	48.43	23.03	12	110
Total Segment Results	91.39	86.57	100	6	339.44	301.77	100	12	412.07	358.64	100	15
Less: Intra-group eliminations	0.00	0.00		0	0.00	0.00		0	0.85	1.85		0
Interest (Net) / Dividend Income	0.41	1.14		-64	0.67	1.41		-52	2.54	6.46		-61
Other Unallocable Income net off Unallocable (Expenditure)	19.63	12.06		63	57.23	45.64		25	55.82	41.70		34
EO	0.00	0.00		0	0.00	0.00		0	0.00	0.00		0
PBT	110.61	97.49		13	396.00	346.00		14	464.50	392.03		18
Capital Employed
Engine business	654.12	663.21	91	-1	654.12	663.21	91	-1	709.89	715.58	91	-1
Others	68.41	25.88	9	164	68.41	25.88	9	164	68.63	36.48	9	88
Aggregate for the company	722.53	689.09	100	5	722.53	689.09	100	5	778.52	752.06	100	4
Source: Capitaline Corporate Database

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008

DG - Wednesday Telefolio : Lakshmi Electrical Control System : May 21

DG - Friday Telefolio : Aries Agro : May 23

DG - Friday Telefolio : Cummins India : May 30

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