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Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Fw: Investor's Eye: Update - Ipca Laboratories, Power, Telecommunications
Fw: Annual Report Analysis - Petronet LNG - BUY
Petronet LNG: Tracking project execution – BUY CMP Rs123, Target Rs173, Upside 40.4% Growth potential of Petronet LNG (PLNG), over the medium term, is linked to the execution of its ongoing projects especially the second jetty at Dahej and the Kochi terminal. Over the longer term, execution of the Gangavaram project will also be keenly watched given the delays witnessed in Kochi project. In its FY13 annual report, PLNG has given detailed information on the status of these projects and has also provided outlook on international and domestic LNG markets. We believe, the company is well poised to see a strong growth in revenues and profitability in the medium term as relative affordability of LNG will improve post the gas price hike. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a reduced target price of Rs173. Projects going on schedule except some delays at Kochi The overall progress achieved for the second jetty at Dahej terminal is at 70% and is likely to be commissioned by Q1 CY14. The Kochi Terminal after seeing substantial delays is likely to be commissioned by July/August 2013, initially with FACT & Kochi Refinery consumers. For expansion of regasification capacity at Dahej, PLNG has completed pre-qualification of prospective bidders for selection of contractors for the lump sum EPC contracts. For the Gangavaram terminal, a binding term sheet with Gangavaram Port has been signed and the option of early commencement of supplies through a Floating Storage and Re-gassification Unit (FSRU) is being evaluated. With the objective to achieve the strategic goal of developing storage and re-gassification capacity of 30mtpa by 2020, PLNG is keeping provision for further enhancement of Dahej Terminal from 15mtpa to 20mtpa. Return ratios decline but balance sheet and cash flows gain strength During FY13, PLNG saw a decline in return ratios with RoE decreasing by 537bps yoy, RoCE falling 88bps yoy and RoA dropping 136bps yoy. Nevertheless, both RoE and RoCE remained comfortably over the 20% mark. During FY13, PLNG saw a 45% jump in operating cash flows and saw second consecutive year wherein operating cash flows exceeded capital expenditure requirements. Balance sheet gained further strength with gross debt/equity improving to 0.6x from 0.9x and net debt/equity falling to 0.3x from 0.6x. |
Click here for the detailed report on the same. |
Warm Regards, Amar Ambani |
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Fw: Investor's Eye: Update - HCL Technologies, Gateway Distriparks
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Friday, June 07, 2013
Fw: Investor's Eye: Special - Q4FY2013 Construction earnings review, Q4FY2013 Capital Goods & Engineering earnings review, Q4FY2013 earnings review
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Fw: Company Report - Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd - BUY
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd: Prime pick – BUY CMP Rs243, Target Rs283, Upside 16.5% Sturdy business model; brisk growth over FY10-13 Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd (MMFSL), a subsidiary of M&M is one of the leading vehicle financing NBFCs in India with an AUM of Rs267bn. It has one of the largest rural and semi-urban distribution franchises comprising 657 branches across 25 states and 4 UTs. Starting as a captive finance company for M&M products, the company has evolved into a diversified vehicle financier. MMFSL's localized business model and nimble loan processing lends it with a strong pricing power. During FY10-13, MMFSL witnessed robust AUM growth and sharp improvement in assets quality driven by rural upswing and structural factors such as network expansion, conservative LTV/loan tenor, robust credit appraisal/monitoring and strong collections engine. Asset and earnings growth to slow but remain impressive In view of deep macro slow down and waning momentum in rural consumption, moderation in MMFSL's disbursement growth is likely to accentuate in FY14 (~18% v/s ~22% in FY13) before recovering marginally in FY15. The deceleration in disbursements would translate into moderated though respectable asset growth of 23.5% pa over FY13-15. MMFSL's NIMs are favorably placed in a declining rate environment and therefore would remain firm despite increase in competition. Delinquencies could show an uptick and along with migration to 120-day NPL recognition should drive a material increase in credit cost in FY14/15. Consequently, earnings growth is estimated to decelerate to 18-20% over FY13-15. Valuation is not cheap but can remain so; initiate coverage with BUY MMFSL's premium valuation amongst NBFCs (2.7x 1-year roll fwd P/BV) is likely to sustain aided by better earnings growth and RoA delivery. Diversified business compared to other vehicle financiers and strong relationships with manufacturers lend higher predictability to MMFSL earnings growth. Key risks to our hypothesis would be a negative surprise in asset growth and asset quality. Initiate coverage on MMFSL with a BUY recommendation and 12-month target price of Rs283 which includes forecasted value of Rs12.5 for insurance broking business and Rs4 for rural financing business. |
Click here for the detailed report on the same. |
Warm Regards, Amar Ambani |
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