Fw: Levy of Commodity Transaction Tax

 

Dear Customer, Sub: Levy of Commodity Transaction Tax This is to inform you that subsequent to the presidential assent to the Finance Act 2013 received on May 10, 2013, the levy of Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) is introduced with effect from June 1, 2013 as below:-

Transaction Rates Payable by Sale of commodity derivative (other than agricultural commodities) entered on a recognized association 0.01% Seller

For any clarification or assistance, you may contact the nearest branch / write to us at comm@indiainfoline.com or reach our customer service desk at (022) 40071000 or at our zonal customer service numbers: North -011-49315020, East - 033-44048600, Maharashtra-022-40609292, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh -079-40271800 and South-080-40547030. Regards, Loveena Khatwani Head, Customer Service India Infoline Commodities Limited

Fw: Revision in rates of Securities Transaction Tax

 

Dear Customer, Sub: Revision in rates of Securities Transaction Tax This is to inform you that subsequent to the presidential assent to the Finance Act 2013 received on May 10, 2013, the rates of levy of Securities Transaction Tax (STT) are revised with effect from June 1, 2013 as below:-

Sr. No. Taxable securities transaction Effective rate till 31.05.2013 New rate from 01.06.2013 Payable by A B C D E 1. Purchase of an equity share in a company, where - (a) the transaction of such purchase is entered into in a recognised stock exchange; and (b) the contract for the purchase of such share is settled by the actual delivery or transfer of such share 0.1 per cent 0.1 per cent (No Change) Purchaser   Purchase of a unit of an equity oriented fund, where - (a) the transaction of such purchase is entered into in a recognised stock exchange; and (b) the contract for the purchase of such unit is settled by the actual delivery or transfer of such unit 0.1 per cent NIL - 2. Sale of an equity share in a company, where – (a) the transaction of such sale is entered into in recognised stock exchange; and (b) the contract for the sale of such share is settled by the actual delivery or transfer of such share 0.1 per cent 0.1 per cent (No Change) Seller 2 A. Sale of a unit of an equity oriented fund, where – (a) the transaction of such sale is entered into in a recognised stock exchange; and (b) the contract for the sale of such unit is settled by the actual delivery or transfer of such unit 0.1 per cent 0.001 per cent Seller 3. Sale of an equity share in a company or a unit of an equity oriented fund, where – (a) the transaction of such sale is entered into in a recognised stock exchange; and (b) the contract for the sale of such share or unit is settled otherwise than by the actual delivery or transfer of such share or unit 0.025 per cent 0.025 per cent (No Change) Seller 4. (a) Sale of an option in securities (b) Sale of an option in securities, where option is exercised (c ) Sale of a futures in securities 0.017 per cent 0.125 per cent 0.017 per cent 0.017 per cent (No Change) 0.125 per cent (No Change) 0.01 per cent Seller Purchaser Seller

For any clarification or assistance, you may contact the nearest branch / write to us at cs@indiainfoline.com or reach our customer service desk at (022) 40071000 or at our zonal customer service numbers: North -011-49315020, East - 033-44048600, Maharashtra-022-40609292, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh -079-40271800 and South-080-40547030. Regards, Loveena Khatwani Head, Customer Service India Infoline Limited

Fw: Investor's Eye: Stock Idea - Jyothy Laboratories; Update - Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, PTC India, Tata Chemicals, Dishman Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals

 

 

Investor's Eye [May 28, 2013]  Sharekhan www.sharekhan.com     If you do not wish to receive this research report in future, please click here

Summary of Contents   STOCK IDEA Jyothy Laboratories Recommendation: Buy Price target: Rs254 Current market price: Rs180 Shining bright Key points  Chip off the old block: With the successful integration of Henkel, which it had acquired in early FY2012, and the induction of a new management team led by a professional chief executive office (CEO; S Raghunanadan, who successfully built brands like Moov among other notable achievements) Jyothy Laboratories Ltd (JLL) is transforming itself from a one-brand wonder to an aggressive fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) player focused on gaining market share in a wide range of categories (including premium detergents, household insecticides, dishwash and deodorants). The new team has taken bold decisions including the restructuring of the distribution network and the margins for the channel partners, the implementation of technological solutions to modernise the supply chain and the adoption of better manufacturing practices. Set to grow exponentially: Given the company's highly focused strategy to leverage on its strong brand portfolio, the management is confident of surpassing the industry growth rates and gaining significant market share in categories like detergents (Henko and Ujala) dishwash (Exo and Pril), household insecticides (Maxo coils and liquids) and personal care (Fa deodorants and talc; and Margo soap). We estimate JLL's top line would grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of close to 25% over the next three years (FY2013-16). What's more, the strong revenue growth is likely to be accompanied by a considerable improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM; resulting from lower distribution margins and efficiency gains; margin improvement of over 300 basis points expected over the next three years) and a declining interest burden (through the repayment of the debt taken to acquire Henkel using internal accruals). This would result in an exponential growth in its earnings.  Focus on improving balance sheet: JLL has taken steps to reduce its working capital requirements by revamping its supply chain network. It also plans to reduce the debt on the consolidated books by improving its profitability and selling some of its non-core assets. The company targets to achieve a debt/equity ratio of 0.5x by FY2015 as against 0.9x at present. With an improvement in the margin, the return ratios of the company are expected to get back in double digits by FY2014 and cross 20% by FY2016.  Recommend Buy; price target of Rs254: For the company FY2013 was a year of integration and implementation of several initiatives that would reflect in its financial performance from FY2014. With a close to 25% growth in revenues and a potential for substantial improvement in the OPM, we expect JLL's consolidated bottom line to grow exponentially over the next three years. Hence, we are initiating coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation. Our price target for the stock is Rs254 (we have valued the stock at a 25% discount to the average multiple of some of the large FMCG companies). Our price target is based on an investment horizon of 18 months. At the current market price the stock is trading at 21.7x FY2015E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs8.3 and enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 12.8x.   STOCK UPDATE Sun Pharmaceutical Industries  Recommendation: Buy Price target: RsUnder review Current market price: Rs996 Q4FY2013 results-First cut analysis  Result highlights Q4FY2013 profits better than expected: Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries (Sun Pharma) reported a 31.8% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in the net sales to Rs3,071.5 crore in Q4FY2013, which is nearly 5% lower than our estimate. A lower than expected revenue is mainly attributable to the weak performance of Taro Pharmaceuticals (Taro) during this quarter. The operating profit margin (OPM) remained flat year on year (YoY) at 41% (in line with expectations) during the quarter. However, due to the lower than estimated interest costs and depreciation, the profit before tax jumped by 18.5% YoY to Rs1,281 crore. Moreover, the effective tax rate declined by 252 basis points YoY to 13.8% (vs our estimate of 19.7%), which helped the company to post an impressive 23.3% Y-o-Y rise in the net profit to Rs1,011.6 crore. The reported net profit during the quarter is 17% better than our estimate. US business drives growth; Indian market witnesses relatively slower growth: During the quarter, the US business grew by 77% YoY to Rs1,788 crore. The growth has been contributed by two months' revenues of the newly acquired generic business of URL Pharma and three months' revenues of Dusa Pharma. However, the revenues from the Indian formulation business witnessed an 11% Y-o-Y decline due to a high base effect. On normalised basis, the revenues from the Indian formulation business jumped by 16% YoY to Rs780 crore, which is below our estimate of Rs956 crore for the quarter. The company reported a 22% Y-o-Y rise in the revenues to Rs394 crore from the rest of the world (RoW) markets. The management is confident of maintaining growth momentum in the key geographies.  Management guides for 18-20% growth for FY2014: The management has guided for an 18-20% revenue growth for FY2014 at a constant currency from the existing business. It also indicated that the company aims to surpass $3 billion mark in the next three years. The growth guidance for FY2014 is significantly higher than our estimate of a 14% growth from a high base in FY2013. The company targets 28 abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) filings for FY2014 and a capital expenditure of Rs800 crore.  We have Buy rating on the stock. We will revisit our estimates and price target shortly.      PTC India Recommendation: Buy Price target: Rs88 Current market price: Rs58 Q4 results surprise positively; price target retained at Rs88  Result highlights Volume drove earnings growth in Q4FY2013: Driven by a significant volume growth (of 54% year on year [YoY] and 15% quarter on quarter [QoQ]), the sales of PTC India (PTC) grew by 52% YoY and 17% QoQ in Q4FY2013. The benefit of higher volume percolated to the operating and net profit levels as well. The operating profit grew by 59% YoY and 71% QoQ in the quarter. Sequentially, a higher volume of power trading through a tolling arrangement (up 34% QoQ) and a subdued price of imported coal helped the operating profit margin to expand by 73 basis points. The profit after tax (PAT) improved by 69% QoQ to Rs38 crore. However, on account of a lower other income, the PAT grew by 23% YoY despite a 59% growth at the operating level. On an annual basis also, the earnings were largely driven by the volume growth.  We attended the analyst meet of PTC recently. We present below the key takeaways from the event.  Power trading business set to see a healthy volume growth: The management of PTC expects the power trading volume to increase to approximately 32 billion units (BU) in FY2014 and around 38BU in FY2015. This volume growth would be driven by an improving volume from short-term trading, incremental tolling capacity of 150MW once the Meenakshi project gets operational, incremental supply (of over 2000MW and over 4000MW in FY2014 and FY2015 respectively) from the upcoming projects in long term arrangement.  Higher share of tolling and long-term volume to improve margin: Currently, the tolling business of PTC is the key margin kicker, being in a sweet spot (due to lower prices of imported coal and a healthy merchant price rate). With an incremental capacity of 150MW expected in Q1FY2014, the volume under tolling arrangement could go up in FY2014. Further, we sensed the management's emphasis on long-term capacity arrangement, which is expected to bring in higher volumes with an incremental capacity of about 6000MW in the next two years. Effectively, PTC expects a healthy volume growth for the next two to three years. The share of long-term volume and tolling volume should also move up which will help the margin to expand.  Positive development in sticky receivable issue: Pending receivables to the tune of Rs1,800 crore cumulatively from the Tamil Nadu State Electricity Board (TNSEB) and Uttar Pradesh SEB (UPSEB) were a major hangover for the company. However, the combined outstanding receivable from the SEBs has come down to Rs1,142 crore (Rs 773 crore from UPSEB and Rs 368 crore from TNSEB) by the end of FY2013. Further, the management of PTC expects the dues from the TNSEB to be negligible in the next couple of months. The receivable in the balance sheet dropped by Rs439 crore YoY to Rs2,142 crore in FY2013. On account of this positive development, cash generation from the operations of the company turned positive to about Rs435 crore in FY2013 against negative cash flow operation of above Rs800 crore in FY2012.  View-retain Buy with price target of Rs88: Currently, the stock is trading at 11x and 10x its FY2014 and FY2015 earnings estimates respectively. We expect PTC to have a healthy growth trajectory driven by volume growth, with incremental capacities arising from both tolling and long-term arrangements. Moreover, a favourable changing mix (a higher share of long-term and tolling volumes out of the total volume) should help PTC to notch a better margin. Further, we believe an improving outlook for the power sector (largely due to the measures taken by the government to fix the lingering issues) should help the company to exit from some of its long-term investments (in power projects). The management also shared healthy growth expectations for its subsidiary, PTC Financial Services (PFS), which contributes significantly to our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. Hence, we retain our Buy rating on the stock with the existing price target of Rs88.  Tata Chemicals Recommendation: Buy Price target: Rs380 Current market price: Rs305 Earnings hit by European write-off  Result highlights Revenues in line with expectations; European write-off drags consolidated earnings: During the fourth quarter of FY2013 Tata Chemicals Ltd (TCL)'s consolidate revenues degrew by 2% to Rs3,391.5 crore, which was largely in line with our expectations. The consolidated earnings was negatively impacted by the European write-off (Rs97.14 crore goodwill + Rs386.7 crore assets write-down) during the quarter. The reported profit after tax (RPAT; after minority interest and share of associate) for the quarter stood at Rs(188.3) crore, which included an extraordinary income of Rs187.9 crore from the redemption of investment in subsidiaries, a foreign exchange loss of Rs31 crore and the UK write-off for assets and goodwill stood at Rs483.8. Adjusting for this the profit after tax (PAT) stood at Rs175.3 crore, which was in line with our estimate. Lower profitability in stand-alone business and heavy operating losses in Kenyan business dent overall margin: The stand-alone performance of TCL for Q4FY2013 was lower than expected on account of a sluggish volume growth and a high margin pressure in the fertiliser segment because of higher discounts and a one-time write-off of Rs28 crore (for reducing the price of complex fertilisers in FY2014 as per the government notification). The total revenues for the stand-alone business degrew by 4% to Rs1,998 crore and the EBIDTA margin stood at 9%, which was marginally lower than our expectations. In Q4FY2013, the Kenyan business posted heavy losses as the sales were impacted due to heavy rains. Also, its margin was under pressure due to a lower realisation of soda ash in the Middle East and the anti-dumping duty in India on import of Kenyan soda ash. The total fertiliser subsidy pending with the government stood at Rs1,753 crore at the end of Q4FY2013. Outlook: fertiliser demand and European business key concerns: The demand environment for the non-urea fertilisers remains soft even though a normal monsoon is expected as the inventories are at a very high level. On the chemical front, the business environment in Europe is challenging, which is putting pressure on the revenues and earnings, whereas in Kenya, the margin may remain under pressure till the next quarter. However, the company believes that the demand for soda ash and salt will remain firm in India and North America. On the pricing front, the price of soda ash has bottomed out at the current level and may rise as the Chinese players have started to increase the price of soda ash. Valuation: We have broadly maintained our revenue estimates, but on the earnings front we have reduced our margin estimates for FY2014 and FY2015 on account of a soft margin in the fertiliser segment and European business (business environment for soda ash remains sluggish for the next two to three years). Consequently, we have lowered our earnings estimates for FY2014 and FY2015 by 13% each and arrived at the earnings per share (EPS) of Rs30.5 and 33.5 respectively. At the current market price, the stock trades at 10x its FY2014E earnings and 9.1x its FY2015E earnings. On the valuation front, we value TCL at 10x FY2015E EPS and investment value of Rs45 per share and arrive at a fair price of Rs380. We maintain Buy recommendation on the stock.  Dishman Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals Recommendation: Buy Price target: Rs130 Current market price: Rs69 Margin improves  Result highlights Q4FY2013 results in line with expectations: Dishman Pharmaceutical & Chemicals (Dishman) reported a nearly flat year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth to Rs345.5 crore in Q4FY2014, which is 2% lower than our estimate. However, the operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 270 basis points year on year (YoY) to 26.2% (better than our estimate of 18.5%). On account of a 45% Y-o-Y jump in the other income to Rs13.7 crore and lower than expected interest costs of Rs17.2 crore (Y-o-Y decline of 20.8%), the profit before tax (PBT) recorded a decline of 17.1% YoY to Rs61 crore (before foreign exchange [forex] loss). However, the net profit dropped by 40.6% YoY to Rs18.6 crore on account of a higher effective tax rate of 43.9% (vs 40% in Q4FY2013) and a forex loss of Rs15.6 crore. However, the adjusted net profit jumped by 9.5% YoY to Rs34.2 crore, which is better than our estimate. High debts remain a concern; deal for SEZ land still alluding: The company has a gross outstanding debt of nearly Rs818 crore (Rs21 crore of cash in hand), of which nearly Rs105 crore is payable in FY2014. The company continues to look for buyers to sell-off the special economic zone (SEZ) land in a couple of months (which could generate nearly Rs100 crore) and also expects to pay off nearly Rs100 crore through internal accruals. With the company having no major capital expenditure (capex) plans for this year and FY2014 (only maintenance capex of Rs30-40 crore), the debt equity ratio is expected to decline substantially if the deal for the SEZ land goes through as per plan.  We maintain our estimates, price target and recommendation: We broadly maintain our estimates for FY2014 and FY2015, given that the results for Q4FY2014 are in line with our expectations and the management's guidance is falling in line with our estimate. We believe the traction in Carbogen Amcis and the vitamin D3 business would be a major growth driver going forward. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with a price target of Rs130, which implies 7x average earnings for FY2014E and FY2015E. The stock is currently trading at 3.7x average earnings for FY2014E and FY2015E.  Click here to read report: Investor's Eye     Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

Fw: Stock Idea: Jyothy Laboratories (Shining bright)

 

 

Stock Idea [May 28, 2013]  Sharekhan www.sharekhan.com

Summary of Contents     STOCK IDEA Jyothy Laboratories Recommendation: Buy Price target: Rs254 Current market price: Rs180 Shining bright Key points  Chip off the old block: With the successful integration of Henkel, which it had acquired in early FY2012, and the induction of a new management team led by a professional chief executive office (CEO; S Raghunanadan, who successfully built brands like Moov among other notable achievements) Jyothy Laboratories Ltd (JLL) is transforming itself from a one-brand wonder to an aggressive fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) player focused on gaining market share in a wide range of categories (including premium detergents, household insecticides, dishwash and deodorants). The new team has taken bold decisions including the restructuring of the distribution network and the margins for the channel partners, the implementation of technological solutions to modernise the supply chain and the adoption of better manufacturing practices. Set to grow exponentially: Given the company's highly focused strategy to leverage on its strong brand portfolio, the management is confident of surpassing the industry growth rates and gaining significant market share in categories like detergents (Henko and Ujala) dishwash (Exo and Pril), household insecticides (Maxo coils and liquids) and personal care (Fa deodorants and talc; and Margo soap). We estimate JLL's top line would grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of close to 25% over the next three years (FY2013-16). What's more, the strong revenue growth is likely to be accompanied by a considerable improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM; resulting from lower distribution margins and efficiency gains; margin improvement of over 300 basis points expected over the next three years) and a declining interest burden (through the repayment of the debt taken to acquire Henkel using internal accruals). This would result in an exponential growth in its earnings.  Focus on improving balance sheet: JLL has taken steps to reduce its working capital requirements by revamping its supply chain network. It also plans to reduce the debt on the consolidated books by improving its profitability and selling some of its non-core assets. The company targets to achieve a debt/equity ratio of 0.5x by FY2015 as against 0.9x at present. With an improvement in the margin, the return ratios of the company are expected to get back in double digits by FY2014 and cross 20% by FY2016.  Recommend Buy; price target of Rs254: For the company FY2013 was a year of integration and implementation of several initiatives that would reflect in its financial performance from FY2014. With a close to 25% growth in revenues and a potential for substantial improvement in the OPM, we expect JLL's consolidated bottom line to grow exponentially over the next three years. Hence, we are initiating coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation. Our price target for the stock is Rs254 (we have valued the stock at a 25% discount to the average multiple of some of the large FMCG companies). Our price target is based on an investment horizon of 18 months. At the current market price the stock is trading at 21.7x FY2015E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs8.3 and enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 12.8x. Click here to read report: Stock Idea   Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

Fw: Investor's Eye: Update - Oil India, Crompton Greaves; Viewpoint - Bharat Forge

 

 

Investor's Eye [May 27, 2013]  Sharekhan www.sharekhan.com     If you do not wish to receive this research report in future, please click here

Summary of Contents     STOCK UPDATE Oil India Recommendation: Buy Price target: Rs650 Current market price: Rs587 Price target revised to Rs650  Result highlights Net profit increased by 71.9% YoY; better than estimate: In Q4FY2013, Oil India Ltd (OIL) posted a net profit of Rs764.5 crore (a growth of 71.9% year on year [YoY]), which is better than our estimate on account of a lower than expected subsidy burden (Rs1,850 crore as compared with our estimate of Rs2,216 crore) and also lower than the expected effective tax rate (30.7% as against expectation of 33%). On the revenue front, the company posted a growth of 37.2% YoY due to a better net realisation ($55/barrel in Q4FY2013 as against $39/barrel in Q4FY2012) as the subsidy burden has decreased. However, the company continued to disappoint with a degrowth in the production of crude oil and a muted growth in the production of natural gas.  Production of oil and gas continued to be affected during the quarter: During the quarter, the production of crude oil and natural gas was adversely affected due to an external environmental issue and was unable to support the revenue growth of the company. The crude oil production and sales volume for the quarter declined by 8.8% YoY and 9.3% YoY respectively. On the natural gas front, the company posted a muted production growth of 1.4% YoY, whereas the sales volume increased by 2.6% YoY to 0.51 billion cubic meter (bcm) in Q4FY2013. Going ahead, in FY2013-15, we expect the company's oil and gas to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% and 4% respectively. Net realisation supported by lower subsidy burden: With the correction in the crude oil price during Q4FY2013, the company's gross realisation declined by 6.9% YoY to $111.4/barrel. However, with the decrease in the subsidy burden (to make up for the loss incurred by the oil marketing companies) to Rs1,850 crore as compared with Rs2,874 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the company's net realisation improved by 42.4% YoY to $55.4/barrel. Further, with the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, the net realisation improved by 53.4% YoY in rupee terms. On the margin front, the operating profit margin (OPM) of the company expanded sharply by over 8 percentage points YoY to 39.5% (compared with our estimate of 40.8%) on account of a lower subsidy outgo, which results in better net realisation. Other income supported by huge cash balance: During the quarter, the company's other income remained strong and increased by 9% YoY to Rs369.4 crore. It is well supported by the company's huge cash balance. As on March 2013, the company has a cash balance of Rs12,133 crore. Going ahead, this cash could be utilised for the acquisition of oil and gas assets, which could provide an inorganic growth to the company.  Partial de-regulation of diesel and a likely increase in the gas price augurs well: The oil ministry has initiated a move to partially de-regulate the diesel price by allowing the oil marketing companies to increase the price by Rs0.50/litre on a monthly basis and eventually make diesel a completely de-regulated product. The move will result in a reduction in the subsidy outgo of the company and will improve the net realisation and earnings of the company. In addition to this, the oil ministry has moved a cabinet note for increasing the price of natural gas. Hence, the move will further increase the profitability and earnings of the company going ahead. However, currently, we are not incorporating impact of these developments into our earnings estimate and would like to wait a little longer for better clarity. Marginally downgrading earnings estimates for FY2014 and FY2015: We are marginally downgrading our earnings estimates for FY2014 and FY2014 mainly to incorporate lower than expected production in the crude oil and gas. The revised earnings per share (EPS) estimates now stand at Rs62.8 and Rs72.7 for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively.  Maintain Buy with revised price target of Rs650: We continue to hold our bullish stand on OIL because of its huge reserves and healthy reserve/replacement ratio (RRR), which would provide a reasonably stable revenue growth outlook. Further, the move to de-regulate the diesel price and a likely revision in the natural gas price augurs well for the company. In terms of valuation, the fair value of OIL works out to Rs650 per share (based on the average fair value arrived at using the discounted cash flow [DCF], price earnings [PE] and EV/EBIDTA valuation methods). In our fair value computation we have not incorporated the impact of a partial de-regulation of diesel and the new gas pricing, which could provide a further upside to our revised price target of Rs650. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation on OIL with a revised price target of Rs650 (roll forward on FY2015 earnings). At the current market price, the stock trades at PE of 9.4x its FY2014E EPS of Rs62.8 and 8.1x its FY2015E EPS of Rs72.7.   Crompton Greaves Recommendation: Hold Price target: Rs105 Current market price: Rs94 Price target revised to Rs105  Result highlights Restructuring pain and margin pressure kept results below expectations In Q4FY2013 Crompton Greaves Ltd (CGL) reported a net profit of Rs25 crore, which is significantly lower than our estimate. Though, the sales numbers reported by the company were in line with our estimate. The performance failed to meet expectations for two factors: a slower than expected recovery in the international business (mainly the European subsidiary) and the mounting pressure on the power system segment of the stand-alone business.  The consolidated net profit declined by 75% year on year (YoY) to Rs25 crore while the sales grew by 10% in Q4FY2013 as the power system segment (which contributes 60% of the revenues) continued to be in red with Rs59 crore of loss at the profit before interest and tax (PBIT) level. The other two segments, industrials and consumer, were relatively stable, though the consumer segment also witnessed margin contraction YoY in Q4FY2013. Sequentially, there was an improvement as the business turned from loss-making to profit-making, since in Q3FY2013 it had borne the brunt of restructuring related huge one-off expenses. Even in Q4FY2013, at the PBIT level the loss of the international operations had hovered around Rs60 crore. The PBIT margin of the power system at the consolidated level recovered from a 6% loss in Q3FY2013 to a 3% loss in Q4FY2013. That was largely because of the continued loss of the power system segment at consolidated level (a 10% loss at the PBIT level in Q4FY2013) as the recovery after the restructuring is in process.  Steady order backlog growth to reflect on sales, but profitability and pace of recovery would be monitorable The consolidated order book grew by 9% YoY and declined by 1% quarter on quarter (QoQ) to Rs9,126 crore at the end of FY2013. The order book traction was largely noticed from the Middle-Eastern and African region (power system), which will be serviced by the Indian facility. Based on this, the management expects the sales to grow at 8-10% in FY2014 while the profitability could be unpredictable given the possible negatives from the liquidation damages of the European operations (related to restructuring). Moreover, the rising competition is building margin pressure in the domestic power system segment. The industrial and consumer segments should have a healthy sales growth of 10% and 20% respectively but the sustainability of the double-digit margin (at the PBIT level) would be the key monitorable in FY2014.  View and valuation Earnings estimates downgraded; price target revised down to Rs105: We have lowered our earnings estimates for FY2014 and FY2015 by 35% and 11% respectively to build in the slower than expected recovery post-restructuring and the mounting pressure on the margin of the domestic power system business. Based on the revision, we have downgraded our price target to Rs105 (12x its FY2015E earnings). The stock currently trades at 20x and 10x its estimated earnings of FY2014 and FY2015 respectively and 8x and 5x its EV/EBITDA for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively. We believe the restructuring is behind us and the company should stabilise gradually. Hence, we have maintained our Hold recommendation on the stock.  VIEWPOINT Bharat Forge Demand weakness to sustain in near term Q4FY2013 conference call takeaways Demand to remain under pressure in H1FY2014, expect better outlook for H2 BFL has been witnessing demand pressure from the last two quarters with the revenues declining by about 30%. For FY2013, BFL's revenues declined by 15%. The demand deterioration is across the geographies (domestic market, the USA and Europe). In addition to the declining truck sales both in the stand-alone and the export markets, BFL is seeing a considerable slowdown in the non-automotive segments (oil and gas, construction and mining) due to a weak macro-economic growth in the key markets of India and Europe.  BFL expects the demand to remain subdued in H1FY2014 as there is no marked improvement expected in the key markets. BFL expects a meaningful recovery in H2FY2014 on account of an improved outlook for its key customers both in the automotive and the non-automotive segments. Margin under pressure on operating deleverage and unfavourable mix BFL has been witnessing margin pressure on account of a subdued demand. The margin in the last two quarters declined from 24-25% range to about 21%. The operating deleverage caused by a lower capacity utilisation has impacted the margin. The capacity utilisation levels dropped to 60% in Q4FY2013 as against 68% for FY2013, impacting the margin. Further a drop in the machining mix (due to demand slump in the oil and gas, and mining sectors) has put further pressure on the margin. The margin is likely to inch higher in H2FY2014 once the demand recovers and there is an improvement in the machining mix. Subsidiaries performance improves in Q4FY2013 The profitability of BFL's overseas subsidiaries (excluding the US subsidiary, which discontinued operations) improved despite the challenging demand environment. The cost rationalisation initiatives and productivity improvements improved profitability. At the profit before tax (PBT) level, the subsidiaries contributed profit of Rs14.4 crore as compared with a loss in Q3FY2013.  New customer additions and focus on high technology products to drive growth in long term  BFL recently won a global passenger vehicle original equipment manufacturer (OEM) order for supply to its new platform. Going ahead, BFL plans to focus on the passenger vehicle space and increase the market share globally. Also, BFL has witnessed new orders in the non-automotive segments (oil and gas, construction and railway). The revenues from the new orders are likely to commence from 2015. BFL thrust on technology (increasing mix of newly introduced aluminium forgings), which provides significant benefits to the automotive players, is likely to boost the revenues and margin in the long run. Further, focus on the high value products (higher machining on account of increased contribution from the non-auto segments) would help BFL to improve performance in the long run. Valuation We expect the demand pressure to continue in the near term and expect the revenues for FY2014 to decline marginally. We expect FY2015 to witness a strong demand with the revenues growing in the double digits. The margin is expected to remain under pressure in FY2014 on account of a sluggish demand. We expect the margin to decline by 40 basis points in FY2014. We have estimated EPS of Rs12.6 and Rs16.9 for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively. The stock can trade at 13x FY2015 earnings and can also incorporate a book value of investments in the subsidiaries and joint ventures estimated at Rs22 per share. We have a Neutral view on the company.  Click here to read report: Investor's Eye     Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.