**[investwise]** India's Natural Gas Demand To Jump 4 Fold By 2015; GSPL, GAIL To Benefit

 

India's Natural Gas Demand to Rise 4 Fold by 2015, Key Beneficiaries would be Gujarat Petronet and GAIL     A. How Large Would Be India's Gas Grid By 2015?   India's natural gas carrying capacities are expected to increase to 490 mmscmd by 2015, a four fold increase over 2005.   Total length of Gas pipelines will grow from 5600 kms in 2005 to 11000 kms in 2010 and further to 24000 kms by 2015.   B. Where is the Additional Gas Demand coming from?   -City Gas Distribution (IGL, MGL and GGL)   -Industrial, Petchem and Refineries, Fertiliser plants and Power.   B. What is the current Natural Gas pricing structure?   PMT, Ravva, Lakshmi-Gauri, Niko-GSPC, Reliance and Long Term LNG from Exxon Mobil-Gorgon Field and Ras Gas works out to between $ 4.4 to 5.7 MBTU at the pit head levels to Gas Transporters.   C. Where is Natural Gas likely to come from?   D3 KG Basin is estimated to hold 3.9 TCF (Trillion cubic feet of gas), and is adjoining the transmission facilities of the KG6 linked East-West Gas Pipeline.   D9 KG Basin is estimated to hold 5.2 TCF of Natural Gas.   GS01 Gujarat Offshore-declared commercial feasibility comprising 5890 sq kms of Gas Field (Dhirubhai 33)   PY1 and PY3 Cauvery Offshore will start giving additional production of 40 mn BOEs from 2012.   CY/OS2 Cauvery Offshore North of PY1, awaiting arbitration decision but ready to go commercial.   In all about 9.3 TCF of Gas Assets Discovered in KG, Cauvery and Gujarat Offshore, even excluding the GSPC owned Deen Dayal Fields which alone are believed to hold Gas Reserves of 5 TCF.   D. Production ramp-up by Reliance and it's partners, GSPC and ONGC will coincide with additional gas trunk lines, leading to rapid industrialisation in the heartland of India.   E. Current Consumption Jan 2010- 166 mnBTUs, a four fold increase   -Base Case Demand Assuming 6% Annual Demand Growth on as is basis policy-230 mn BTUs by 2015.   -Additional Demand if Natural Gas committed at $ 10-11/mmbtu at customer gate, the upside demand then rises 9 per cent per annum to 280 mnBTU's.   -Committing Natural Gas at $ 10-11 per MBTUs to Gas Based power, will raise Natural Gas demand Growth at 12 per cent per annum and will take 2015 Gas Demand at 320 mn BTUs.   Safe Harbor Statement: Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.   Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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