Mishkin: Asset Bubbles No Worry
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:55 AM
While experts such as economist Nouriel Roubini warn that a dangerous bubble is brewing in global financial markets, former Federal Reserve Gov. Frederic Mishkin disagrees.
"There is increasing concern that we may be experiencing another round of asset-price bubbles that could pose great danger to the economy," Mishkin, now a Columbia University professor, wrote in the Financial Times.
"Does this danger provide a case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to exit from its zero interest rate policy sooner rather than later, as many commentators have suggested? The answer is no."
The recent market gains in the U.S. and Europe don't present any threats, Mishkin argues.
"Our problem is not a credit boom, but that the deleveraging process has not fully ended. Credit markets are still tight and are presenting a serious drag on the economy."
As a result, "Tightening monetary policy in the U.S. or Europe to restrain a possible bubble makes no sense at the current juncture," Mishkin says.
"The Fed decision to retain the language that the (federal) funds rate will be kept 'exceptionally low' for an 'extended period' makes sense."
That's because the economic rebound is still tentative and inflation remains low, Mishkin writes.
In Asia, though, some analysts see a major bubble developing.
"Unless we get (monetary) tightening in the next 12 months or so, it will become uncontrollably large," Frederic Neumann, senior economist at HSBC, told CNBC.
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