Monday, June 30 – July 6, 2008

 

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T

I

M

E

S

A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION

VOL. XVII No. 33

Monday, June 30 – July 6, 2008

Pages 17

Stay away

as markets test lower levels

By Sanjay R. Bhatia

The markets displayed a negative trend on the back of weak global cues, spike in crude oil prices and political

uncertainty. Selling pressure was witnessed amidst

occasional bouts of short covering ahead of the

derivatives segment expiry. Traders and speculators

were seen creating fresh short positions. The volumes

recorded remained marginally low with negative

breadth. FIIs remained net sellers in the cash and

derivative segments. Mutual Funds were also net sellers

during the week.

The global cues have remained negative. Crude has once

again spiked above the $140 per barrel due to tensions in

the Middle East and OPEC Chairman's statement that

crude oil prices would touch the $150 - $170 per barrel

during this year. Global markets continued to display a

negative sentiment on the back of the rise in crude prices

raising concerns of inflation, which has continued its

upward march and has touched 11.42% in India. In its efforts to curb the rising inflation, the RBI once again raised the

Repo Rate by 50 bps with immediate effect and the CRR by 50 bps to be implemented in two stages beginning 5

th

July. On

the political front, the Congress and the CPM deadlock over the nuclear deal continued.

The FIIs have continued to remain sellers. The markets have failed to witness follow up buying at higher levels indicating

lack of interest in taking fresh long positions. Now, it is important that the markets consolidate at present levels and

witness some amount of buying. It is also important that global market cues improve for the market to come out of the

present rut. The market sentiment would continue to remain negative and weak and fresh lower levels would be tested.

The Q1 results to be announced next month would be the only saving grace if at all corporate India doles out some

surprises. In the meanwhile, the markets would continue to take cues from the global markets and crude oil prices.

Updates on the progress of the monsoon would also impact the market sentiment along with the inflation numbers,

which are unlikely to come to in single digits.

The Sensex has support at the 13779 and 12884 levels. On the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 13989, 14141 and

14677 levels. The 4108, 4074 and 3750 are important support levels for the Nifty. On the upside the Nifty faces resistance

at the 4482, 4647 and 4899 levels.

Investors should stay away.

1

"It's my way…dear!"

BAZAR.COM

By Fakhri H. Sabuwala

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The anomalies in the capital market are indeed many. More often than not they 0catch you on the wrong foot! Only the

shrewd can decipher them while the crazy lot do not understand and live with the irrationalities. No wonder, it rises

when the whole world expects a meltdown or it melts when it is expected to rally. Most of us, it appears, are here for the

thrills and kicks, which it certainly provides albeit at a cost. Sometimes, it is at the cost of one's fortune. Worth it,

nevertheless.

The evening of Tuesday 24

th

June 2008, was darker than usual. No, it was not because of the monsoon clouds but due to

the dim closure of the stock markets earlier in the day and the raising of CRR (cash reserve ratio) and the repo rate (the

rate at which commercial banks borrow from the RBI) by 50 bps each. Such a move coming within hours after the RBI

Governor's statement that action shall be taken as and when the situation demands and now is not the time for it. Maybe,

the Finance Minister may have prevailed upon the RBI Governor to initiate such a blow, which may surely jeopardise

growth but make life easier for vote hungry politicians.

As the hours advanced to late evening and night, reactions of the so-called experts were frightening. Such was the scare

that almost all prayed that the market does not rob us of 400 to 600 points on the Sensex and break all support levels.

Neither did the Nasdaq, NYSE or Asian markets gave clues to avert such a happening.

But…

God's hand you may call it, if you are a believer. Or just irrationality at its peak if you are an atheist. The market did fall

to Sensex level below 13,800 but only for a few moments. The recovery from such lows was possibly quicker than the fall

and the breadth and depth, too, were such that they warrant a mention. Call it short covering or renewed buying interest

or whatever. The best performers of the day were the ones that were expected to lose the most. The Banking & Finance

segment was one that outsmarted every other segment and just galloped away. Can such a development be ever

understood by a rational mind?

Well, just to remind you, it was the natural outcome of the actions of each one of us. Does this mean that we all do the

reverse of what we expect or believe? Is it that the failure ratio in the markets is so high that at times when the consensus

is almost 100% about a certain eventuality, exactly the reverse happens? Strange are the ways of this market. Sometimes

so fictional, yet true, true to the core.

So what does one do? Where does one go from here?

Here lies a lesson for investors and marketmen. The government's inaction to price sensitivity, rise in crude prices,

inflation, nuclear deal etc. revolve around the elections. Ruling politicians feel that a delay may benefit the UPA and bring

them back to power. High time they learned from our markets and realise the way the masses behave. The time for action

is now, right now. Act boldly and firmly and establish your commitment to the nation before going to the polls. You may

get support like never before and win hands down. For polls, too, like the markets are where irrationality rules the roost.

So just do what your heart says….That's your way dear!

Further weakness possible

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

By Hitendra Vasudeo

Last week, we had expected the Sensex to test the lower ranges. The lower ranges indicated were 14581-14424, 13696-

13779 and 12671-12316. The low registered last week was

13731. Thus the 2

nd

lower range was attained.

The Sensex opened at 14423.05 attained a high at 14510.55

and fell to a low of 13731.54 before it finally closed the week

at 13760.78 and thereby showed a net loss of 810 points on a

week-to-week basis.

The Zig-Zag pattern formation is in place and is also in the

last leg of the Zig-Zag pattern formation. The price

implication of the A-B-C pattern is 13696. Last week, we saw

that level get some respect as the Sensex made a low of

13731 and held on to it. But the level will get violated this.

The level of 13696 coincides with one of the higher bottoms

of 13779. Important support ranges for this week on the

basis of the above points are placed at 13696-13779.

If the Sensex sustains and closes below 13696, then expect the slide to be sharper towards the cluster of support in the

range of 12671-12344. The level of 12671 was a top at a point of time and 12344 was a higher bottom at a point of time.

That range can offer support. Therefore, the Sensex on fall and close below 13696 on a weekly basis will take the Sensex

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first down towards 12671-12344. A bounce from this range can be anticipated and if the Sensex does not hold on to the

range of 12671-12344, then it will have no choice but to slide towards 10928.

The Sensex has violated important support of 14645-14677-15332. These one time supports of the market will now act as

its resistance. The lower top is placed at 15790. Only a breakout and close above 15790 can be the first indication of an

intermediate reversal of the lower top and lower bottom formation.

The weekly pivot lower level this week is placed at 13518 and 12739. On the upside, the upper resistance level is placed at

14014-14298-14571

Sensex Wave Analysis

Wave I-2594 to 3758

Wave II-3758 to 2904

Wave III- Internals as follows:

Wave 1- 2904 to 6249

Wave 2-6249 to 4227

Wave 3-4227 to 12671

Wave IV- 12671 to 8799

Wave V- 8799 to 21206

Wave A-21206 to 14677

Wave B-14677 to 17735

Wave C- 17735 to 13731 (current ongoing move)

3

Internal of Wave C

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS

Wave i- 17735 to 16546

Wave ii-16546 to 17497

Wave iii- 17497 to 14645

Wave iv- 14645 to 15789

Wave v- 15789 to 13731

(current ongoing move)

The current falling move

can get terminated at

either of the following

ranges: 13696-13779 and

12671-12316.

If the slide gets sharper,

then the alternate wave

count of the fall can be as

follow.

Wave A- 21206 to 15332

Wave B-15332 to 18895

Wave C- 18895 to 13731

Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy

with what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to

Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value

then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal

of the up Trend.

Last

Center

Relative

Weekly

Up

Close

Point

Strength Reversal Trend

Scrips

Level 1 Level 2

Level 3 Level 4

Value

Date

Stop

Loss

Buy

Price

Buy

Price

Book

Profit

Book

Profit

SPICE

COMMUNICATION

72.05 35.6

57.9

66.1

80.2

102.5

78.8

61.9

04/04/08

CADILA

HEALTHCARE

310.00 262.3

295.3

313.7

328.3

361.3

77.2

309.4

13/06/08

GLAXO

SMITHKLINE PHA

1126.00 1054.0

1099.0

1117.0

1144.0

1189.0

76.0

1105.0

27/06/08

LUPIN

674.00 572.7

639.7

672.3

706.7

773.7

75.7

679.3

13/06/08

STERLING

INTERNATION

289.90 255.3

278.5

290.4

301.8

325.0

73.7

268.4

13/06/08

(current ongoing move)

Internals of Wave C then

will be

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS

Wave i-18895 to 14677

Wave ii-14677 to 17735

Wave iii- 17735 to 13771

(current ongoing move)

Conclusion

Once again the lower

range 13696-13779 and

12671-12316

will

be

tested.

Intermediate

reversal confirmation can

happen on rise and close

above 15789.

Strategy for the week

Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell

with what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to

Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal

Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly

reversal of the Down Trend.

Last

Center

Relative

Weekly Down

Close

Point

Strength Reversal Trend

Scrips

Level 1 Level 2

Level 3 Level 4

Value

Date

Cover

Short

Cover

Short

Sell

Price

Sell

Price

Stop

Loss

BAJAJ AUTO

453.75

322.7

416.6

473.3

510.5

604.4

0.00

509.91

20/06/08

BAJAJ FINSE

561.40

471.1

533.0

566.4

594.9

656.8

0.00

582.04

20/06/08

BRAHMANAND

HIMGHAR

53.05

37.2

49.1

57.0

61.0

72.9

0.00

80.82

30/05/08

SOBHA

DEVELOPERS

296.90

208.1

273.8

316.3

339.5

405.2

15.31

373.40

09/05/08

OMAXE

138.85

102.2

128.7

145.1

155.3

181.8

24.19

165.34

09/05/08

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The overall strategy still remains to exit on a rally to Weekly resistance

levels. Sell at 14960 and

15400 with a stop loss of

15789. Sell at 14014-14298

with a stop loss of 14571.

Intra-week traders can

wait for a rise above

14014 or 14298 and when

it falls below 14014 or

14298 then sell with high

above 14014 or 14298 as

the stop loss. Expect lower range of 13518-12739 to be tested during the week if the downside momentum continues.

EXIT LIST

Scrip

Last Close Sell Price Sell Price Sell Price Stop loss Target

Monthly Relative

Strength (RS)

NATIONAL ALUMINIUM C

332.80

410.76

436.30

461.84

544.50 194.4

38.81

SHIV-VANI OIL & GAS

504.00

541.91

563.50

585.09

655.00 358.9

40.82

SESA GOA

3417.00 3608.57 3742.50

3876.43

4310.00 2473.6

41.23

PROVOGUE (INDIA)

941.10 1033.34 1068.03

1102.71

1215.00 739.4

42.28

GUJARAT NRE COKE

128.80

132.38

136.20

140.02

152.40 100.0

44.27

NESTLE INDIA

1600.00 1652.11 1675.00

1697.89

1772.00 1458.1

47.18

SUN PHARMACEUTICAL I

1334.00 1361.74 1391.00

1420.26

1515.00 1113.7

47.26

* The list of stocks that hit new 52-week lows is the longest ever and most of the newly listed companies (over the last 2

years) have hit all time lows. Does it indicate the begining of a bear run?

TOWER TALK

* Even in this market, Core Project & Technologies has taken the approval of its board to raise a whopping Rs.2000 cr. by

way of equity.

* More than the jump in crude oil prices globally, the rising inflation at home is affecting the sentiment the most. Experts

fear the inflation touching 13-14% in few weeks.

* The real estate sector is being butchered the way dotcom companies were in 2000. From DLF to DS Kulkarni, all

construction scrips have been reduced to half or one-third. Is the sector headed for a recession?

* Jubilant Organosys with sales of Rs.1530 cr. and PBIT of Rs.310 cr. is attracting fancy with its new prescription of

growth.

* Even the bonus trump card could not infuse power into Reliance Power. Switch over to NTPC. At least, you can get into

a better stock, valuewise.

* Media stocks still have mutual fund support in select counters like UTV, Sun TV, Mukta, ENIL and Balaji Telefilms.

* With its 1:2 bonus, handsome divided and robust working GAIL is an ideal switch from BPCL, HPCL and IOC. At least,

an investor is invested in the fuel of tomorrow and not the rude crude!

* 'Karaar v/s Takraar ya bachao sarkaar'. That's the agenda for the 10

th

meeting of UPA constituents on the nuclear deal.

The market is watching these developments and expects early Lok Sabha polls by year end.

* Atlas Copco, which was on a downtrend hit the circuit on the news of buy-back. Now that it has been deferred the stock

has gone down again. Who has benefited by the announcement and the deferring of the plan?

Investors may enter a stock only on conclusion of board meeting and not on announcement of board meeting.

* Look for debt free companies in mid-cap and small-cap space. VST Tillers, Macmillan (India) Ltd. are two examples of

debt-free companies.

* Stone India has declared dividend of 12.5% for FY07 and FY08 at one go. At current levels, the stock looks interesting

* Rajendra Mechanical and Jetking Infotrain have announced a bonus. But these announcements did not attract the

attention of value seeking investors in the current mayhem.

* The grey market premium for Avon Weighings Systems was quoted at Rs.5 and Sejal Architectural Glass at Rs.14.

•

By Saarthi

BEST BETS

Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd. (Code: 532734)

Rs.207.35

Incorporated in 1999, Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd. (GPIL), the flagship company of the Raipur-based Hira Group of

Industries, is an integrated steel manufacturer with dominant presence in long products, mainly mild steel wire. The

company manufactures sponge iron, billets, ferro alloys, captive power, wires rods and steel wires. Over the last few

years, it has not only scaled up its capacity five-fold but has also got itself backward as well as forward integrated to

emerge as an end-to-end manufacturer of mild steel wires. Today, GPIL boasts of being the third largest producer of coal

based sponge iron in India and is one of the largest players in the mild steel wires segment. The company has also been

awarded rights for iron ore and coal mining for captive consumption; As a result, it has managed to traverse the entire

value chain from raw material to final product and is now a fully integrated manufacturer.

GPIL's manufacturing facilities are located in Siltara industrial estate, near Raipur in Chattisgarh. It produces steel via the

sponge iron route and generates captive power from waste gases produced at the kilns to feed its induction furnaces for

making billets. Post completion of its Phase-II expansion in September 2007, it has an installed capacity of 495,000 TPA for

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sponge iron; 400,000 TPA for steel billets; 150,000 TPA for HB wires along with 53 MW of captive power plant. Besides, it

also has two subsidiaries, RR Ispat and Hira Steel, which are also engaged in manufacturing wire rods and HB wire.

Currently, GPIL generates power only for captive consumption and it uses the waste gas from its sponge iron plant as

feedstock to generate 42 MW and the rest is generated from coal rejects. Because of this, the company will earn nearly

150,000 to 175,000 carbon emission receipts (CER) under the clean development mechanism (CDM) project.

In 2005, GPIL was awarded two iron ore mines in Chattisgarh, one at Boria Tibu (reserve of approx. 8 million tonnes) and

another one in Ari Dongri (reserve of approx. 7 million tonnes) both about 150 km away from its existing plant. Only last

week, the company received the in-principle approval from the forest department for mining iron ore from 107 hectare

land at Ari Dongri in Chhattisgarh. For the other mine, forest approval is still awaited. In addition, the company has been

allotted prospective license for iron ore mines over 754 hectares at Dhalli Rajhara in Durg District of Chhattisgarh in

January 2008. Besides, GPIL has also been allotted captive coal blocks in Nakia I and II in Madanpur, Chhattisgarh by the

Ministry of Coal in consortium with 4 other partners. Its share is worth 63 million tonnes in the total reserves of 243

million tonnes. The mining activities are under progress and the company will benefit from FY10. Accordingly, GPIL is a

executing backward integration plan at a capex of Rs.235 cr., which includes setting up of 0.6 MTPA iron ore Pelletization

plant, 0.1 MTPA iron ore Beneficiation plant, 1.2 MTPA iron ore Crushing plant etc. In addition, it has acquired 75% stake

in Ardent Steel Ltd., which is a newly formed company, and is in the process of setting up 0.6 MTPA pelletization plant in

Orissa. All these projects are slated to be completed by December 2010.

Meanwhile, GPIL posted spectacular Q4FY08 results and ended FY08 on a buoyant note. Sales and net profit both

increased by more than 80% to Rs.829 cr. and Rs.95 cr. respectively leading to an EPS of Rs.34 on its current equity of

Rs.28 cr. As Phase II of the expansion was completed during Q3FY08, its full benefit will be visible in FY09. Accordingly it

is estimated to operate at 70-80% capacity utilisation and produce 350,000 tonnes of sponge iron and 275,000 tonnes of

steel billets. On the back of higher sponge iron prices and better profit margin, GPIL is expected to clock a turnover of

Rs.1200 cr. with PAT of Rs.125 cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.45 on its current equity. Investors are advised to accumulate the scrip at

declines for a price target of Rs.300 in 12-15 months.

JK Cement Ltd. (Code: 500380)

Rs.88.73

JK Cement Ltd. (JKCL), an affiliate of the JK Organization, was formed in November 2004 as a result of the slump sale of

the cement division of JK Synthetics Ltd. (JKSL), a BIFR registered sick company. Since then, it has made a smart

turnaround with lower cost of production by setting up a captive power plant and is among the largest grey cement

manufacturers in North India and the second largest manufacturer of white cement in the country. It manufactures

ordinary portland cement (OPC) and portland pozzolana cement (PPC) and markets them under its own brand names

such as JK Cement, Sarvashaktiman, JK Super, JK

White and Camel, which are very popular brands.

PPC's margins are generally higher compared to

OPC as each tonne of PPC requires approximately

0.75 tonnes of clinker, 0.05 tonnes of gypsum and

0.20 tonnes of fly ash. On the other hand, each tonne

of OPC requires approximately 0.95 metric tonnes of

clinker and approximately 0.05 metric tonnes of

gypsum. JK Water Proof and JK Wall Putty are its

other premium products. It also exports white

cement to a number of countries including South

Africa, Nigeria, Singapore, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Sri

Lanka, Kenya, Tanzania, United Arab Emirates and

Nepal.

JKCL has three manufacturing plants in Rajasthan

which are producing cement since 1975. Two plants

at Nimbahera and Mangro are producing grey

cement and one at Gotan is manufacturing white

cement. Presently, the company has a combined

installed capacity of 4 million tonnes of grey cement

and 0.4 million tonnes of white cement. Of late, the

company has acquired Nihon Nirmaan facility from

IDBI for Rs.42 cr. and is now expects to start the

production of grey cement with an initial capacity of 0.4 million tonnes, which will enhance its total cement

manufacturing capacity of company to 4.4 million tonnes. Moreover, the company has installed a 43 MW captive power

Workshop on Technical Analysis

By Hitendra Vasudeo

Orientation of Technical Analysis and its application

On Saturday, 5

th

July 2008, from 9 am to 6 pm.

Fees: Rs.6000 per participant

Enroll for the workshop and get 1 month of Profitrak Weekly

& Top Trades absolutely free

Venue:

Hotel Bawa International

Nehru Road, Near Domestic Airport

Vile Parle (East), Mumbai – 400 099

For bookings contact:

Time Communications (India) Ltd.

Goa Mansion (Gr. Flr.), 58, Dr. S. B. Path (Goa Street), Fort,

Mumbai – 400 001

Tel: 022-2265 4805, Telefax: 022-2261 6970

E-mail: moneytimes@vsnl.com

5

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Page 6

generation facility consisting of 13.2 MW under waste heat recovery system, 20 MW under pet coke based thermal plant

and 10 MW coal-fired thermal plant. This has led to substantial savings in power costs in addition to generating some

revenue through carbon credits. On the other hand, JKCL has access to large reserves of high quality limestone for both

grey and white cement operations and that too within close proximity to its plant.

To maintain its growth momentum and capture new markets, JKCL has formed a wholly-owned subsidiary called

Jaykaycem Ltd., which is setting up 3 million tonnes greenfield grey cement plant with split grinding unit in Karnataka. It

will have 2.25 million tonnes clinker capacity accompanied by a 40 MW captive power unit and will primarily produce

blended PPC cement. This Rs.1000 cr. project is being funded through a debt of Rs.525 cr. and the balance through

internal accruals and is expected to become operational by mid-2009. Further, the company is contemplating to set up a

grey cement plant at Fujairah in the UAE at an estimated cost of Rs.1,400 cr. The company has already entered into a 90:10

joint venture agreement with the Fujairah Government, whereby JKCL will hold 90% stake in the joint venture.

Fundamentally, JKCL is doing satisfactorily and has recorded 20% growth in sales to Rs.1458 cr. and 50% increase in PAT

to Rs.265 cr. The sharp improvement in the bottomline is due to the tax benefit availed by the company under Sec 80IA

and thereby the lower tax for FY08. Hence it posted an EPS of Rs.38 on its equity of Rs.69.90 cr. and declared 50%

dividend, which gives a yield of nearly 4% at CMP. A few weeks back, JKCL decided to merge JayKaycem Ltd. with itself

which is just an accounting procedure since it is a wholly-owned subsidiary. With rising input costs and anticipated fall in

cement prices, JKCL is expected to clock a turnover of Rs.1500 cr. with profit of Rs.225 cr. on a conservative basis i.e. EPS

of Rs.32 on its current equity. Despite this, at a modest discounting by 6 times, the JKCL scrip can shoot up to Rs.200 in

12-15 months.

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.: A good defensive pick

ANALYSIS

By Devdas Mogili

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (APL) is a 22-year old Hyderabad-based company established in 1986. It develops, manufactures

and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), intermediates and generic formulations. APL, today, is a

manufacturer of anti-infectives, intermediates and active ingredients for anti-infectives with leadership positions in India

and a significant presence in emerging global markets. P Rama Prasada Reddy is the chairman while K Nityananda

Reddy is the managing director of the company.

The company's robust product portfolio is spread over six major therapeutic/product areas viz. antibiotics, anti-

retrovirals, CVS, CNS, gastroenterologicals and anti-allergics encompassing 65 APIs in the non-antibiotics and 55 APIs in

the antibiotic segment. These segments have worldwide market size of US $229 billion including US $118 billion in USA

and US $51 billion in Europe.

The company ranks among the top five pharmaceutical companies in India and is a multi-product, multi- technology and

transnational company. Today, the company's products serve consumers in India and over 100 other countries including

the premium markets of USA and Europe.

APL is the largest manufacturer of semi-synthetic penicillin in the continent and the fourth largest in the world. It has

integrated facilities to manufacture bulk drugs, bulk drug intermediates and formulations. Its Srikakulam Unit

manufactures products like Ciprofloxacin,

Enrofloxacin and Amoxycillin.

Subsequently, its product range was expanded

to include antibiotic bulk drugs like cloxacillin

and dicloxacillin and high-value drugs like

Astemizole,

Famotidine,

Domeperidone,

Omeprazole, Norfloxacin and Ciprofloxacin.

The diverse product segments are Steriles,

Betalactams, Anti-virals and Lifestyle drugs.

The company has completed the development

cycle of over 100 products for Generics. A

separate block has been set up to manufacture

Norfloxacillin and Perfloxacillin.

The company adopted both the organic and

inorganic routes for expansion. As a result, the

company has a number of subsidiaries. It has

also set up a 100% subsidiary in China that will help to procure the raw material 6 APA at an economical cost.

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APL is a government recognised export house and has developed a reputed client base both in India and abroad. During

1999-2000, the company diversified its product portfolio further with the introduction of wide range of Cephalosporins

(Oral & Sterile) and anti - virals in addition to macrolides, anti-ulcerants, quinolones, semi-synthetic penicillin's and

formulations for the domestic and export market.

The company has a new division called 'Imunus' dedicated to Aids patients, which has launched two new products called

'Indivex' and 'Stavex' and is planning to launch a few more products. To market its branded formulations in the domestic

market, the company has formed a 50:50 JV with the Citadel Group. The joint venture, Citadel Aurobindo Biotech Ltd.

will focus on therapeutic areas like cardiovascular, diabetology, gastroenterology, infection and pain management.

On 10 June 2008, APL received the final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture

and market Zaleplon capsules in 5 and 10-miligram strengths. Zaleplon Capsules are the generic equivalent of King

Pharmaceuticals Sonata Capsules, which are indicated for the treatment of insomnia. APL is in the first line of generics

and got the USFDA nod on the very first day after the expiry of the relevant patent and has already launched the product

in the US market. This is APL's 70th ANDA approval from the USFDA.

The company has also received final approval from the USFDA to manufacture and market Benazepril Hydrochloride

tablets 10, 20 and 40 mg. Benazepril HCI Tablets are the generic equivalent of Novartis Pharmaceuticals' Lotensin tablets,

which are indicated for the treatment of hypertension.

Since April 2008, the company has also received the final approval for its anti-infective product Penicillin V Potassium

Tablets USP 250 mg and 500 mg and tentative approval for its anti-AIDS product Emtricitabine Capsules 200mg from the

USFDA.

R & D: The company's R&D team has filed 100 ANDAs in USA and 40 ANDAs in Europe and the approvals on hand

from USA and Europe aggregate to 57.

Financial Highlights: For FY08, APL has registered a total income of Rs.2530 cr. (Rs.2172 cr.) up by 16.5%. The profit

before tax has jumped to Rs.292 cr. (Rs.206 cr.) up by 41.7%. After making a provision for tax of Rs.54 cr. (Rs.4 cr.) the net

profit stands at Rs.238 cr. (Rs.201 cr.) up by 18.4%. The consolidated EBIDTA stands at Rs.435 cr. (Rs.351 cr.) up by 23.9%.

Quarterly Results: The latest quarterly results for the Q4FY08 are as shown below:

(Rs. in cr.)

The company registered a sales of Rs.632.40 cr. with a net profit of

Rs.76.08 recording an EPS of Rs.14.15. Going forward, the annualised

EPS works out to Rs.56.60. However, the company showed

improvement in operating profit margin and gross profit margins as

compared to Q4FY07.

Financials: The company has an equity capital of Rs.26.88 cr. Face value

per share is Rs.5 with a book value of around Rs.177.

Share Profile: The company's shares are listed and traded on the BSE

and NSE under the B group. Its share price touched a 52-week high/low

of Rs.820/233. At its current market price of Rs.278, it has a market

capitalisation of Rs.1578 cr. The share has a beta value of 0.7.

Dividends: The company has been paying regular dividends as shown

below:

FY08 - 65%, FY07 - 50%, FY06 - 30%, FY05 - 10%, FY04 - 45%, FY03 -

35%, FY02 - 30%.

The company hiked the dividend from 52% to 65% for 2007-08.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 55.27% while the balance of

44.73% is held by non-corporate promoters, institutions, mutual funds and the Indian Public. Among mutual funds,

Reliance Mutual Fund, ING Vysya, UTI, Kotak, Franklin India, Fidelity, JM Health Care, HDFC and Canequity have been

adding the company's shares to their various schemes during the past several months.

Particulars

Q4FY08

Q4FY07

Sales

632.40

532.76

Other Income

8.87

15.23

Stock Adjustment

41.21

-16.06

Raw Material

344.56

321.66

Power And Fuel

0.00

0.00

Employee Expenses

38.82

32.00

Other Expenses

106.95

130.00

Operating Profit

100.86

65.16

Interest

4.38

2.97

Gross Profit

105.35

77.42

Depreciation

19.33

26.28

Taxation

9.94

-30.13

Net Profit / Loss

76.08

81.27

Prior Year Adjustments

0.00

-3.16

Equity Capital

26.88

26.67

OPM(%)

15.94

12.23

GPM(%)

16.42

14.12

NPM(%)

11.86

14.83

EPS (in Rs.)

14.15

15.23

Prospects: The Indian pharmaceutical market is poised to grow by 10% by 2010. The pharmaceutical industry worldwide

grew by 7% in 2006 with USA growing at 8.2%. During the same period, Europe grew at 4.4% with an industry size of

US$ 156 billion. Some of the other markets such as Canada and Australia grew by 7% and 6% respectively.

North America and Europe are the largest markets and account for 48% and 28% respectively of the global industry. The

highly regulated US market includes drugs that are under patent and those that have gone off patent and is valued at

around US $276 billion. The global pharmaceutical market is forecast to grow to US $842 billion in 2010, an equivalent

CAGR of 6.9% over the next few years.

More significant, the world's leading drugs are facing patent expiry in the near future. In USA alone, close to US $50

billion worth of branded revenue will be made available to generic competition.

7

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Page 8

Conclusion: APL is an acknowledged leader in APIs particularly in anti-infectives, anti-virals and select lifestyle disease

drugs and has a significant presence in large parts of the world. Aurobindo's goal is to build a globally successful

pharmaceutical company and its mission is to make quality pharmaceutical products affordable to all.

At its current market price of Rs.278, the share price is discounted less than 6 times against the industry average P/E

multiple of about 23. Moreover, in the present uncertain markets, the pharma sector is a defensive sector. Considering its

global positioning, robust performance and bright prospects, the share is a good defensive bet in these troubled times.

The share becomes even more attractive on declines and may be accumulated at every fall for good appreciation with a 2-

3 year time frame.

The outlook remains grim

MARKET REVIEW

By Ashok D. Singh

The benchmark indices declined as soaring crude oil prices, high inflation rate and a political rift over nuclear deal

weighed heavily on the market sentiment. The BSE Sensex fell to the lowest level in 13 months while the NSE Nifty

touched a 10-month low. The Sensex lost 769.07 points or 5.28% to 13,802.22 for the week ended Friday, 27 June 2008. The

NSE Nifty lost 210.90 points or 4.85% to 4136.65 for the week.

The BSE Mid-Cap index declined 473.68 points or 7.85% to 5,558.75. The BSE Small-Cap index slumped 459.59 points or

6.21% to 6,938.07.

The wholesale price index rose 11.42% in 12 months to 14 June 2008, above the previous week's annual rise of 11.05%,

government data released on Friday, 27 June 2008, showed. Inflation for the year through 19 April 2008 was revised

upwards to 8.23% from 7.57%.

Crude hit a record of $141.71 on Friday, 27 June 2008 after OPEC President, Chakib Khelil predicted that the oil prices

could rise to $150-170 a barrel in the next 3-4 months. Rising crude oil remains a major worry as India imports close to

70% of its crude requirements.

After market hours on 24 June 2008, the RBI raised its key lending rate viz. the repo rate by 50 bps to 8.5% with immediate

effect, its highest since March 2002 and the second hike this month. Earlier on 11 June 2008, it had raised the repo rate by

25 bps to 8%. The RBI also increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the ratio of deposits that banks must keep with it, to

8.75% from 8.25% in two 25-basis-point stages on 5 July 2008 and 19 July 2008.

Political uncertainty weighed heavily on the market due to confrontation between the UPA government and the Left

parties over the Indo-US nuclear deal. The UPA-Left coordination committee on the Indo-US nuclear deal on 25 June 2008

decided to meet again later to finalise its findings. The Left parties have already made it clear that they will withdraw

their support to the UPA government if it moves ahead with the nuclear deal. Left parties are opposing the deal saying it

undermines India's independent foreign policy and nuclear weapons programme.

The Finance Ministry on 25 June 2008, said the direct tax receipts were up 43.45% to Rs.49411 cr. until 21 June 2008, on the

back of a higher advance tax payments by corporates. Collection from corporate tax were Rs.30655 cr., up 39.81% from a

year-ago, while income tax receipts were up 49.8% to Rs.18756 cr.

Foreign investors, who usually set the trend for the market, have been withdrawing relentlessly this year. FIIs dumped

shares worth Rs.9349.60 cr. in the month of June 2008 till 26 June 2008. FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totalled

Rs.24,719.10 cr. till 26 June 2008.

The market suffered major losses on 23 June 2008 to settle at a 10-month low on sustained selling pressure throughout the

day. The Sensex lost 277.97 points or 1.91% at 14,293.32. The broader based Nifty was down 81.15 points or 1.87% to

4266.40.

Equities extended losses for the fifth straight day on 24 June 2008 with the Sensex falling below the psychologically

important 14,000 mark in intra-day trading for the first time in 10 months since late August 2007. It lost 186.74 points or

1.31% to close at 14,106.58. The Nifty slumped 75.30 points or 1.76% at 4,191.10.

On 25 June 2008, stocks staged a solid rebound after touching fresh calendar 2008 lows in early trade. The initial jolt was

caused by the RBI's move to hike the key lending rate. However, short covering ahead of the expiry of June 2008

derivatives contracts on next day, 26 June 2008, provided the foundation for the recovery. The Sensex gained 113.49

points or 0.80% at 14,220.07. The broader Nifty surged 61.55 points or 1.47% at 4,252.65.

On 26 June 2008, short covering ahead of expiry of June 2008 derivatives contracts helped market move higher for the

second straight session. However, the market underwent choppy swings throughout the day. The Sensex gained 201.75

points or 1.42% at 14,421.82. The broader Nifty was up 63.20 points or 1.49% at 4,315.85.

A setback to stocks in Asia and USA together with the sharp spurt in crude oil prices and political uncertainty due to the

Indo-US nuclear deal rattled the bourses on Friday, 27 June 2008. The Sensex slumped 619.60 points or 4.30% to 13,802.22.

Intense selling pulled it lower to day's low of 13,760.78, which is its lowest level in over 13 months. The broader based

Nifty tanked 179.20 points or 4.15% at 4,136.65.

8

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Page 9

The Sensex lost 769.07 points to close at 13,802.22 for the week. With inflation expected to remain in double-digits in the

coming months, the outlook for the market remains grim for the near term as steaming inflation, record high global crude

oil prices and high interest rates threaten the pace of growth in the world's second fastest expanding major economy,

driving investors to the sideline or to exit.

Market manipulation continues

MARKET

By G. S. Roongta

Last week ending Friday, 27

th

June 2008 is indeed significant and would be remembered as a week full of worries and

wonders. The worries emerged mostly on account of the rise in crude oil prices and inflation, which has vitiated the

atmosphere and triggered a fresh round of speculation whose ugly impact was evident in abundance as the indices

nosedived on the last trading day after having settled somewhat during the week.

Given the global crude oil scenario, the hike in crude prices and resulting inflation has been factored in and most

investors have begun to live with the uncertainty on this front. But expectedly, the crude price hike and the inflation

thereafter provide excellent handles for the bears to beat down the market with. Not surprisingly, therefore, they

hammered down stocks on Tuesday, 24

th

June 2008, despite the RBI Governor, Y. V. Reddy, having assured the nation the

previous day that the Indian economy was relatively better off to contain the high and volatile level of energy prices. His

attempt to soothe the nerves was obviously taken with a pinch of salt by the bears.

He took pains to explain how the central banks had ensured an orderly condition to manage money supply and adjust to

foreign exchange markets in a cautious and continuous manner maintaining a balanced demand and supply position

domestically, which is the main source of our economic strength to withstand the unprecedented shock from the oil &

energy markets. His observation that out of three shocks of food, financial crisis and energy in the global economy, India

is quite safe and better off as only fuel is the main concern that needs to be monitored since demand outstrips supply.

With such an encouraging presentation in the media on Monday, 23

rd

June 2008, speculation about a hike in interest rates

were set at rest while the bear operators were taken aback by the confident outlook presented by the RBI Governor. They

were, however, not convinced and continued to press sales on 23

rd

& 24

th

June 2008 as they saw a political crisis

developing at the Centre over the nuclear deal with USA.

Hence the hike by 50 bps in the CRR and the repo rate announced after market hours on Tuesday, 24

th

June 2008, did not

deal a major blow as it normally would have. The market, which had touched a new low of 4156.10 on the Nifty and

13991.31 on the BSE Sensex finished with a loss of 75 points on the Nifty at 4191.10 and loss of 186.74

points on the Sensex at 14106.58 on that day before the announcement of the hike in CRR and repo rate.

9

Had this announcement been made earlier in the day, imagine the panic it would have created. It did,

however, have the desired impact as the market opened with a down gap of 250 points on the Sensex at

13856 and fell to a new low of 13731.54 on Wednesday, 25

th

June 2008. Correspondingly, the Nifty made a

low of 4093.20. Thus the deck seemed to have been cleared for the Nifty at 4000 and the Sensex at 12500.

But wonder of wonders, the sharp fall ignited all round value buying and left the bears bewildered.

The resilience demonstrated at this juncture reminds one of the Shakespearean character, Antonio, who

offered a pound of flesh for having failed to return the money to the money lender, Shylock, but

demanded that not a drop of his blood should be lost as a consequence. This was exactly the case with the stock markets

on Wednesday, 25

th

June 2008, when the bears were hell bent to hammer down stocks the Nifty 4000/Sensex 12500 levels.

It seems the markets responded 'do what you like but make sure there are no bloodbaths as the markets have been

defamed for this in the past'.

G.S. Roongta

Remember how Lord Krishna responded to the cry of Draupadi, who was the wager of the Pandavas in the dice game

with the Kauravs and was being disrobed after the Pandavas lost the game, and came to her rescue with an unending

saree to tire out the Kauravs. Similarly, everyone was left wondering when the Sensex closed the day with a gain of 113.49

points and the Nifty by 61.55 points against strong speculation that all supports would be stripped that day!

This was the wonder last week after the fear and worries that had set on the first two days of the week. The worries had

coupled with the wonder as stated in the opening sentence of this column.

Market operators, whether bulls or bears, are basically the same. Just as the bulls were in a tearing hurry to take the

Sensex to 25000 or the Nifty to 7000 and exercised their power ruthlessly ignoring the ground realities only to be shocked

and humiliated since 21

st

January 2008, the bears are adopting the same strategy and may have to repent like the bulls did

earlier. They are entitled to encash the fears unleashed by the fuel crisis and inflation or the draining out of excess

liquidity from the market or the adverse political scenario. But their attempt to hurry up the process and pull down the

indices to unrealistic levels is sure to backfire sooner than later.

---

Page 10

Readers may recall that I had written about the rampant speculation in the CNX Nifty Futures last week when I cited the

example of the normal ratio of 3 to 3.5 on the Sensex against 1 point on the Nifty. This ratio has been alarmingly disturbed

over the last 10 days fluctuating between 1.5 to 2:1 and sometimes beyond. This is a clear example of the short positions in

the Nifty Futures created to take advantage of the bearish market and force the bulls to cut their positions earlier in the

cash segment or their target prices in the F&O segment due for settlement on Thursday, 26

th

June 2008. But their desire

could not be fulfilled as all round bottom-fishing, as advocated by this column over the last 4 weeks, emerged on

Wednesday, 25

th

June 2008.

Why are the authorities not keeping a strict watch on such rampant speculation and book a few such operators? Typically,

they will wake up after the horses have bolted! Is the system not favouring the bears since they do not have to pay

margins unlike the bulls? When margins are imposed to contain a bull run, why is not a similar step not adopted to rein

in the bears who are rampant?

Since oil prices are likely to remain high and inflation sure to rise, have they been factored in current prices or is the worst

yet to come? Although it is very difficult to answer this question with precision, a great deal on this front appears to have

been discounted considering the u-turn taken by the market with the rise of 113.49 points on the Sensex and 61.55 points

on the Nifty on Wednesday and by 201.8 points rise on the Sensex and 63.2 points on the Nifty on Thursday, 26

th

June

2008. Although some analysts call this as a pull-back rally or relief rally, the fight between the bulls and bears will

continue till such time as a positive trigger like good rains or Q1FY09 results surface in July 2008. They might bring about

widespread relief just as the falling rupee and Q4FY08 results brought to the IT sector.

The risk of early elections is also real and the next few weeks will be very trying. Election news may wipe out the positive

sentiment that a generous monsoon or good corporate results may create. The market may thus be influenced by

technicals, which only favour the trend and ignore all fundamentals.

But by fundamental considerations, most stocks have turned cheap and are available at throwaway prices and

recommended for buying for long-term investment. Just as the market has lost 50-70% from its peak, it is sure to bounce

back once the sentiment turns around. And it will do so in multiples as witnessed in the boom in 2007 when stocks gained

by 500-1000% in a matter of months. Hence investors who are sitting on cash should start bottom-fishing without waiting

for the Sensex to touch 12500 or the Nifty at 4000 as value buying has already begun and will ultimately lead to a change

in trend.

(This column was written as on Thursday, 26

th

June 2008 and does not take into account the happenings on Friday, 27

th

June 2008. )

10

By Saarthi

STOCK WATCH

Once again Shakti Metdor Ltd. (Code: 526510) (Rs.157) has come out with encouraging Q4FY08 results. Sales improved

by 25% to Rs.21 cr. and PAT shot up 40% to Rs.3 cr. For entire FY08, it registered a growth of 15% in sales at Rs.73 cr. and

20% rise in profit to Rs.12.50 cr. thereby registering an EPS of Rs.45 on its very tiny equity of Rs.2.75 cr. However, for

FY08, the company has announced a dividend of 30% same as last year with a poor divided payout ratio of less than 7%.

The company is a market leader in making specialised scientific doors, fire doors, stainless steel doors and general doors.

In short, it is a one-shop stop for total door solutions. It caters primarily to the infrastructure industry, information

technology, ITES, BPO, pharma and healthcare sector. To maintain its leadership, the company is regularly expanding its

manufacturing capacity and plans to triple it to 200,000 doors from 60,000 units currently. On the export front, the

company is looking at South Asia, as a possible growth area and is actively exploring it. Despite the rise in steel prices, the

company is estimated to maintain it's bottom-

line to around Rs.13 cr. on sales of Rs.85 cr. i.e.

an EPS of Rs.47 for FY09. Secondly, with a huge

reserve of around Rs.35 cr. on its small equity,

the scrip is ripe for bonus as well. Accumulate at

declines.

******

Last week, International Combustion Ltd.

(Code: 505737 ) (Rs.376.45) announced decent

Q4FY08 results as sales grew by 20% and profit

increased by 25% to Rs.29 cr. and Rs.3.50 cr.

respectively posting an impressive EPS of

Rs.14.50 for the quarter. For entire FY08, sales

was up by 20% to Rs.95 cr. and PAT was up by

40% to Rs.11.75 cr. This translates into an EPS of

Rs.49 on its tiny equity of Rs.2.40 cr. It has

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declared 50% dividend same as last year. The company is a leading manufacturer of sophisticated plant and machinery

for core sector industries like mining, steel, cement, petrochemicals, construction, sugar, power, textile, paper, rubber,

pharma, chemicals etc. It is engaged in manufacturing of heavy engineering equipment, geared motors and gear boxes,

vibrating screens and feeders, bulk material handling equipment, rubber/polyurethane screen decks and liners, Raymond

grinding mills, air classifiers and flash drying system etc. On the back of its wide product range and high engineering

skills, it is contemplating to enter the lucrative turnkey project segment in the foreseeable future. It may end FY09 with

sales of Rs.110 cr. and net profit of Rs.13.50 cr. i.e. an EPS of Rs.56 on its current equity. Besides being a debt-free, it also

has an impressive ROCE of 40% and ROE of 25%. At a reasonable discounting by 12 times, the scrip can shoot up Rs.675

in 12-15 months.

******

Couple of days back, HBL Power Ltd. (Code: 517271) (Rs.241.10) declared excellent results for the March 2008 quarter.

Sales shot up 70% to Rs.287 cr. and PAT has more than doubled to Rs.22.50 cr. Although it reported lower profit on QoQ

basis, the company has been able to achieve and maintain the higher operating margin of 19% due to lower production

cost. Even on an yearly basis, the company has more than doubled its bottomline to Rs.67 cr. on 90% higher sales of

Rs.973 cr. Thus it posted an EPS of Rs.28 on its equity of Rs.24.30 cr. and declared 15% dividend, same as last year, which

is below expectation. At the same time the company has announced a rights issue in the ratio of 1:25 at a concessional rate

of Rs.150 only. However, there is no rationale for the company to raise such a miniscule amount nor will it to benefit

shareholders significantly. Incidentally, the company has put up two new factories at Vizianagaram and SEZ Vizag in

Visakhapatnam at a capex of Rs.150 cr. Apart from supplying a variety of batteries for train lighting, air conditioned

coaches etc., the company has also designed and developed a wide range of microprocessor based signalling products

and power systems to cater to the needs of Indian Railways. For FY09, it is expected to clock a turnover of Rs.1350 cr. with

net profit of Rs.95 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.39 on its current equity of Rs.24.30 cr. A screaming buy.

******

For Q4FY08, Roto Pumps Ltd. (Code: 517500) (Rs.48.90) registered 30% growth in sales at Rs.14 cr. whereas it's net profit

zoomed by 80% to Rs.1 cr. For FY08, its turnover grew by 25% to Rs.42 cr. and PAT jumped by 50% to Rs.3 cr. on the back

of better price realisations. Notably, the company recorded remarkable improvement in OPM to 15% in FY08 from 12% in

FY07. It even declared a higher dividend of 20% for FY08. The company is a reputed manufacturer of progressive cavity

pumps and twin screw pumps, which have a very wide application in agriculture, domestic and industrial sectors.

Besides India, it has warehouse cum marketing office in Australia and U.K. and a good network of distributors spread

across the globe. The company is in the midst of expanding its manufacturing facility and may register a topline of Rs.50

cr. with bottomline of Rs.3.75 cr. for FY09. This translates into an EPS of Rs.12 on its small equity of Rs.3.09 cr. At the

current enterprise value of Rs.20 cr., the scrip is trading fairly cheap and can double in the medium-term.

By Kukku

FIFTY FIFTY

Investors are advised to be very careful in buying at higher levels. Market is not likely to sustain higher levels in view of

the following:

(1) Sharp spurt in prices of main raw materials like steel/coal/crude based raw materials has changed the equation in the

core manufacturing sector. Industry is not able to pass on the sharp price increase to customers.

(2) Money market is very tight and interest rates are going up. On the other hand inventories are building up leading

many companies to sell their products at a discount.

(3) There is sharp rise in manpower costs and lease rentals.

(4) In view of the above, profits margins are likely to shrink in the coming quarters. This along with the tight financial

market will force many managements to go slow on their capex plans.

(5) Companies having loan in foreign currencies are likely to make provisions for exchange rate difference which will

further reduce their profits. Many companies have not made provisions for interest in the case of FCCBs. Many of them

may not be converted into equity as many of these stocks are trading below half the conversion rate.

All these factors are likely to affect our growing economy and the growth rate is likely to slip.

With the expected slowdown in growth rates and fall in profits margins of companies, the market may not sustain at

higher levels.

Retail participation in the market has reduced sharply in the last few months. With continued selling by FIIs, we may see

the market inching slowly towards lower levels unless crude reacts to around US $100 per barrel level, which may halt

the downtrend.

The BSE Sensex is most likely to come down to 12000/12500 levels or still lower.

Long-term investors intending to buy stocks can do so slowly at every downfall. Buying should be done in stages as

recovery may take long.

11

---

Page 12

Since the market sentiment is weak, investors should buy stocks recommended in this column from time to time, in small

quantity only at lower levels whenever the market reacts.

Investors should also increase defensive stocks in the portfolio as many of them are even available below their book

values. But such buying should be done with a long-term holding strategy.

Avoid all speculative stocks or stocks having no fundamentals.

Investors should avoid the temptation of averaging at lower levels just because a stock is available at 1/3 or 1/4 from its

peak value. This is because many stocks had gone up to unrealistic/unjustified high levels in the last 18 months and may

witness a further downside.

Investment Calls

* First Leasing (Rs.42) was incorporated 34 years back as the first leasing company in India and for several years

remained the only leasing company till the capital boom of the Eighties saw several new entrants.

The company distinguished itself by emphasising on financial assistance to 'Green Energy' in the form of Windmill

Leasing recognising that building a foundation for non-toxic and renewable energy is critically important. It also placed

emphasis on financing Software given its importance to economic growth and as a business opportunity since banks and

financial institutions were reluctant to finance software given its intangibility.

This explains why First Leasing holds 'Triple AS' ratings from Fitch and CARE, two leading credit rating agencies apart

from the fact that it consistently paid dividend every year for 33 years - an enviable record for any company! The

company has recommended dividend of 22.50% for FY08, which amounts to a tax adjusted return of 33.91%.

After providing depreciation of Rs.20.5 cr., net profit of First Leasing rose 22.08% to Rs.30.96 cr. in FY08 as against

Rs.25.36 cr. during FY07. Sales rose 26.50% to Rs.152.87 cr. in FY08 as against Rs.120.85 cr. during FY07.

On its equity capital of Rs.22.58 cr. its EPS was Rs.13.58 while cash EPS was Rs.22.58 while the book value of the share is

around Rs.80.

The stock looks attractive around Rs.40/41 levels as the P/E ratio is just 3 and it is available at half the book value.

Investors can accumulate this stock around Rs.36/40 levels for good long-term growth and earn good dividend yield year

after year. The stock had touched 52-week high of Rs.102.

* Kirloskar Pneumatic (Rs.309) has given an optimistic outlook in its annual report. Its order book position is around

Rs.460 cr. The company is optimistic about gas compressors and high capacity wind-mill gear boxes since there is huge

potential for long-term growth.

The company has good orders for Gas Compression systems for CNG Stations from Refineries and Petrochemicals units.

The company has developed systems for using coal bed methane from huge coal deposits in the country. This translates

into an incredible amount of carbon credits to end users.

It makes transmission products at Hadapsar, Pune, for Rail Traction Gears, Wind Turbine Gear Boxes, Marine Gearboxes

for Naval and commercial ships and gearboxes for industrial applications. Requirements from Railways and Defence for

custom built products continue to be encouraging.

Reliance Capital Assets hold 4.72% in the company and Reliance Capital Trustee holds 2.32%.

Investors can take benefit of this downtrend and accumulate this stock slowly at every dip for good long-term growth.

The stock has reacted from a high of Rs.815.

Market Guidance

* Hindustan National Glass (Rs.664) has reported an EPS of Rs.92 (including write back of deferred tax) on its equity of

Rs.17.4 cr. for FY08. The stock has reacted from a high of Rs.1800 and is now available around Rs.600 level. Investors can

keep a watch to add on dips.

* Since Ashiana Housing (Rs.70) is almost debt-free, such companies are not much affected in the downtrend. Ashiana

Retirement Villages Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company and specialises in the housing needs of senior

citizens under the brand 'Ashiana Utsav'. The response to this project is beyond expectations. Investors can stay invested

in this stock.

* Assam Company's (Rs.25) revenue from the oil division will come from the current quarter onwards.

* Sugar Sector - The country is expected to

export a record 4.2 million tonnes of sugar in

the crop year to September 2008, exceeding

earlier estimates of 3.5 million tones. This will

help sugar prices firm up. Investors with a

long-term view can accumulate sugar stocks

only on reactions.

* Z F Steering, Elgi Equipments, Auto

Corpn. of Goa, SKF Bearings, Grindwell

Norton, First Leasing and many others are

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available cheap corresponding to Sensex 6000/9000 levels.

* Foreign Currency Loans - Investors need to be careful about companies with foreign currency loans as they make

higher provisions in view of the fall in the Rupee against the US Dollar and is now trading around Rs.43 level as against

Rs.40.5 during the same period last year.

By V. H. Dave

EXPERT EYE

Rolta India Ltd. (Code: 500366) (Rs.260.55) is a multinational organisation headquartered in India, with subsidiaries

around the world and is well-equipped to provide IT services in engineering and internet environments. By judiciously

combining resources from Rolta's facilities in USA, Europe, Middle-East, Asia-Pacific and India, Rolta is able to cost

effectively meet customer expectations in the global marketplace. It enjoys more than 70% share of the GeoSpatial market

(applications like Photogrammetric Mapping, Aerial Triangulation, Digital Terrain Modelling, Orthophoto creation,

Image Interpretation etc.) in India.

Rolta's engineering design business group provides design automation tools and services for a variety of facilities

including power plants, oil refineries and petrochemical plants. Its eSolutions business group provides consulting,

application development and testing services. This group provides network and eSecurity implementation services in

partnership with CA, USA.

Rolta has entered into a strategic partnership with Stone & Webster Inc., USA one of the world's foremost engineering-

construction companies, to provide high-quality cost-effective engineering, design and procurement services, related to

power, refinery and petrochemical projects worldwide. This partnership is envisioned to evolve into an independent full

service engineering and procurement operation pursuing large contract business in India and elsewhere in the world.

Rolta has recently signed an agreement with Thales to establish a joint venture (JV). Thales is a leading international

electronics and systems group established in France more than a century ago, employing more than 60,000 people in 50

countries and serving the Defence, Aerospace and securities market worldwide with revenues of over US $13 billion.

The proposed JV will leverage the broad spectrum of cutting-edge technologies, systems and solutions from Thales and

Rolta's leadership position in domestic and international markets for developing state-of-the-art Command, Control,

Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and reconnaissance information systems.

RIL acquired Orion Technology Inc., a Canadian software and Integration Company specialising in enterprise web-GIS

solutions that will enable it to own exceptional technologies for taking its GIS offerings to the next level of sophistication.

It hopes to generate $100 million (Rs.400 cr.) worth business over the next five years through the Orion Technology.

RIL also acquired TUSC, a Chicago-based company specialising in Oracle related technologies and ERP for US$45 million.

The acquisition will enable it to move up the value chain in the GIS space by providing end-to-end solutions to its GIS

clients by way of integrating GIS output into client ERP systems. TUSC has served over 2000 customers in diverse sectors

like Utilities, Energy, Engineering, Manufacturing, Finance, Insurance, Retail, Government, Healthcare, Services,

Transportation, and Technology.

Rolta has taken possession of 5 acres of land in Nonadanga in East Kolkata for setting up a Rs.250 cr. proposed IT park in

a phased manner. This IT Park will have extensive facilities for delivery of information technology based GeoSpatial

services, Engineering Design Services, Software Development and ERP Implementation Services worldwide. Once

completed, this facility will provide employment opportunity for about 5000 technical professionals and domain experts

from the talent available in West Bengal.

Rolta's management has indicated there is a huge opportunity for it in terms of airport redevelopment, 3D city mapping

and work related to power distribution companies (discoms). It is already involved with 26 airport projects across the

country. Mapping a single city would be a Rs.1.5 - 2 billion project. The company has hands on experience in this as it has

done 3D city mapping for Dubai. It is working on nine projects for power distribution companies.

For its major expansion plans, Rolta raised $103.5 million in April 2006, through issue of Global Depositary Receipts

(GDRs) priced at $5.60 (Rs.250) per equity share. Rolta recently completed an offering of FCCBs of $150 million (Rs.600

cr.) with term of 5 years and one day in the international markets. The conversion price is set at Rs.737.40 (ex-bonus

Rs.368.5) per share representing a premium of 50% over the closing price as on 21 June 2007 on the NSE.

For Q3FY08, Rolta achieved 55% higher sales and earned 44% increased net profit of Rs.65.7 cr. For the first 9 months

ended 31 March 2008, it posted 48% higher sales of Rs.751 cr. and 45% increased net profit of Rs.179.8 cr. During FY07

(June ending) it had posted a net profit of Rs.172.6 cr. on sales of Rs.711.4 cr. yielding an EPS of Rs.21.5 on the then equity

capital of Rs.80.1 cr.

Its equity capital has gone up to Rs.160.2 cr. after 1:1 bonus and with reserves of Rs.982 cr., the book value of the share

works out to Rs.71.3. The promoters hold 40.6% in the equity, FIIs hold 39.2%. Mutual funds hold 2.7%, PCBs hold 2.1%

leaving 15.4% with the investing public.

13

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Page 14

The spending on engineering services is projected to increase from US $750 billion in 2004 to US $1.1 trillion by 2020 and

the potential engineering market in India could exceed US $60 billion by that year. This presents immense possibilities of

growth to Rolta in the years to come.

The Indo-US Nuclear Treaty approved by the US Senate and the Indian Government plans envisaging a capacity addition

of 40,000 MW over the next 10 years through nuclear power generation, which has opened tremendous growth

opportunities for Rolta as its JV partner, Stone & Webster, is one of the world leaders in nuclear power technologies.

Rolta is already working with its JV partners in China on nuclear power plants. But if it starts happening in India, the

upside will be much larger and Rolta believes that it would happen.

Rolta's acquisitions would be beneficial in the medium-term as its combined offerings enable it to provide enterprise level

solutions to their clients. Acquisitions also provide cross-selling opportunities of their respective service offerings by both

companies to their existing clients.

Rolta is well-positioned to tap opportunities arising from the core infrastructure development and increased usage of

geospatial data in infrastructure development projects. The rising input costs, mainly employee cost and lower margin

acquisitions, are likely to impact its margins in the near future. However, the higher blended billing rate gain arising from

improvement in employee productivity and redeployment of IPRs would offset it to some extent. Its strong order book of

Rs.1380 cr. provides decent growth confidence in coming quarters.

For FY08 ending 30 June 2008, Rolta is likely to register sales of Rs.1050 cr. with a net profit of Rs.250 cr., which would

give an EPS of Rs.15.5. Sales are expected to advance to Rs.1490 cr. in FY09 with net profit to Rs.345 cr., which would

further enhance its EPS to Rs.21.4.

At the CMP of Rs.260.55, the share is trading at a P/E of 18 on FY08 EPS of Rs.15.5 and 13.1 times it's FY09 EPS. The share

is recommended with a medium-to-long-term target of Rs.375. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.390/200.

******

The results of Ramsarup Industries Ltd. (RIL) (Code: 532690) (Rs.125.90) went unnoticed by the marketmen in the

subdued market sentiment. Its EPS is likely to go up to Rs.41 in FY09 after expansion and merger of its group company

from Rs.33.5 in FY08. The share is available at a forward P/E of just 2.8.

RIL commenced its manufacturing activities in 1966 in the name of Ramsarup Industrial Corporation. Its plants are

located at Kalyani Industrial Area, Nadia in West Bengal. It produces steel wires (coated and uncoated) in several grades

and applications. RIL also has a wind mill at Dhule, Maharashtra, to generate 3.75 MW of power annually. It is the largest

supplier of steel wires and TMT bars to the power and infrastructure sectors. It has recently forayed into building power

infrastructure. The company has five units viz. Ramsarup Industrial Corporation, Ramsarup Utpadak, Ramsarup Vidyut,

Ramsarup Infrastructure and Ramsarup Nirman Wires.

The company's products find application in Power (40%), Railways (5%), Roads & Bridges (10%), Housing &

Construction, (20%), Water Management (10%), Defence (5%) and others-retail etc (10%).

Power

Grid,

Gammon,

plant at its Durgapur

Its

customers

include

Reliance

Industries, Tata Group, Adani, Punj

Lloyd Group, L&T, IVRCL, NHPC,

NTPC, CPWD and Nuclear Power

Corp,

14

Kalpataru, Sterlite Group, Defence and

Indian Railways among others.

Its expansion has lifted its coated wire

capacity to 1,97,000 TPA, uncoated

wires to 36,000 TPA, galvanized wires

to 84,000 TPA, TMT bars to 1,67,000

TPA. Its 37,300 TPA Low Relaxation

Prestressed Concrete Wire (LRPC) wire

commenced production from October

2007 and the expansion of its plant

commenced w.e.f. 17 March 2008 and

progress of ongoing single line LRPC

and plating line

site is under full swing of

implementation.

During Q4FY08, RIL posted 45% higher

net profit of Rs.16.3 cr. on 21%

increased sales of Rs.507 cr. For FY08,

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Page 15

15

r sales of Rs.1582 cr. and it posted an EPS of Rs.33.8. and declared a

equity capital, Foreign holding is 2.5%, Institutions hold 2.6%, PCBs hold 11.6% leaving

cture for design, supply, erection,

s would increase its capacity of black and coated wires to 6,00,000 TPA and downstream

eing merged with RIL. RLUL has also received confirmation of a long

a 90 cubic

LUL. The equity capital of RIL after allotment

acturers of the world

ment has begun to pick up over the past two years driven by

The demand for steel wires, which is the key raw material for construction, will increase

ut of the Rs.4,00,000 cr.

s.178 cr. in FY09 and Rs.374 cr. in FY10 and the EPS would work out to Rs.41 and Rs.70 for FY09 and

re is

recommended with a target of Rs.185 in the medi

igh/low of the share has been Rs.300/120.

and has been

in Maharashtra. This

net profit advanced by 36% to Rs.59.4 cr. on 21% highe

dividend of 20%.

The promoters hold 66.8% in the

16.5% with the investing public.

The Rs.665 cr. expansions across all products lines during FY08-10 will be carried out at Durgapur, West Bengal, for

which RIL has acquired 50 acres of land. Its infrastructure unit, Ramsarup Infrastru

testing & commissioning lines for T&D on a turnkey basis has commenced operation.

The expansion and acquisition

wire products to 50,000 TPA.

RIL has taken over Balasore Minerals Co., which has iron ore, limestone and dolomite mines located in neighbouring

Orissa. This acquisition will ensure regular and long-term availability of raw materials for Ramsarup Lohh Udyog Ltd.

(RLUL), the steel producer of the group, which is b

term coal linkage from the Union Ministry of Coal.

RIL has proposed the scheme of amalgamation of RLUL with itself having common promoters. The proposed scheme is

under consideration of the Honble High Court at Kolkata and if approved the scheme will be effective from 1 April 2O07.

RLUL is in the process of putting up an integrated steel plant at Kharagpur, West Bengal, to produce 7,00,000 TPA of

billet for captive consumption at a cost of Rs.755 cr. The 3,00,000 TPA plant of hot metal/pig iron commenced production

from June 2007. The sponge iron plant of 1,50,000 TPA, 20 MW captive power plant are expected to be commissioned in

July 2008. It is also setting up an air separation plant to produce oxygen, nitrogen & argon for captive use and

metre sinter plant to produce sinter ore. The sinter plant for 9,76,000 TPA would be completed by March 2009.

The swap ratio has been fixed at 2 shares of RIL against every 5 shares of R

of 21 lakh shares at Rs.195 and merger would go up to Rs.43.5 cr. in FY09.

With both organic and inorganic growth routes, RIL aspires to emerge among the top 10 wire manuf

over the next three years. The merger will make RIL an integrated player in the steel wire industry.

The Government of India has realised that if the economy has to grow at a rate of 7-8% p.a., the manufacturing sector

needs to expand substantially. Infrastructure develop

government initiative as well as private participation.

The requirement of over Rs.20,00,000 cr. to plug the infrastructure in power, roads, ports, airports and railway in the 11

th

Five Year Plan period as per the Economic Survey for 2007-08 spells tremendous growth potentials for the companies

serving in these sectors.

tremendously in future.

India consumes approximately 1.4 million tonnes of steel wires, which is less than 4% of its steel consumption. With the

growing infrastructure, the demand for wires is expected to grow to 10 million tonnes by 2020. O

to be spent in T&D, Rs.1-lakh cr. would be spent on wires and cables alone over the next 4 years.

After its expansion & merger with RLUL, RIL expects a sales turnover of Rs.2980 cr. in FY09 and Rs.3990 cr. in FY10. Net

profit would rise to R

FY10 respectively.

At the CMP of Rs.125.90, the share is trading at a P/E of 3 on FY09 EPS of Rs.41 and 1.8 on FY10 EPS of Rs.70. The sha

um-term. The 52-week h

MARKET FOLIO

Birla Cotsyn IPO opens on 30

th

June

Birla Cotsyn (India) Ltd. belonging to the Rs.2300 cr. Yash Birla Group and engaged in textile manufacturing, plans to

enter the capital market with an IPO of Rs.144.18 cr. through the 100% book building issue in the price band of Rs.15 to

Rs.18 per equity share of Rs.10 each. The Issue opens on Monday, 30 June and closes on Friday, 4 July 2008

graded 'IPO Grade 3' by Care Ltd. indicating average fundamentals and will be listed on the BSE and NSE.

The proceeds from the issue will be utilised to set up an integrated textile unit at an estimated cost of Rs.320 cr. and a

garment manufacturing plant at their facilities located at Khamgaon, Ghatanji & Makkapur

investment will also fund its foray into retail outlets, which it plans to set up on a pan India basis.

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Page 16

16

is setting up a 36,000 cotton spindles yarn manufacturing unit at Malkapur. Commercial production in Phase I has

End rotors based Cotton yarn manufacturing facility and is also setting

ny, manufacturing & exporting readymade

arments, knitted & dyed fabrics, cotton yarn with production facilities located in Ludhiana & Baddi, is setting up an

tegrated Textiles & Apparel park at village Sekhan Majra, district Nawan Shaher, Ludhiana, for which the concerned

PV has received approval from the Union Ministry of Textiles entitling it to a maximum subsidy of 40% of the total

frastructure cost.

he company is implementing two projects. The first involves setting up of a terry towel project, a greenfield captive

ower plant and expansion of spinning capacity by another 75600 spindles at a capex of Rs.410 cr.

he second project involves setting up of greenfield Technical textiles and open end spinning facilities and further

xpansion of terry towel and captive power plants at a cost of Rs.611.67 cr.

The textile project at Malkapur has been granted the 'Mega Project' status by the Government of Maharashtra and will

entitle it to fiscal benefits over the next seven years.

It

commenced. In Phase II, it has set up 1,728 Open

up a weaving unit of Cotton Grey Fabric with 114 looms. Moving forward, it plans to set up a 50,000 meters per day

Dyeing and Processing facility in Phase III.

The company is also setting up Readymade Garment unit and establish 20 retail outlets of its own across the country

apart from other multi brand outlets (MBO).

For the nine month period ended 31

st

December 2007, it posted a total income of Rs.63.93 cr. with PAT of Rs.2.52 cr.

against total income Rs.56.15 cr. with PAT of Rs.2.57 cr. for the whole FY07.

IndusInd Bank's net up by 10%

IndusInd Bank has posted a Gross Income of Rs.2178.24 cr. for FY08 against Rs.1744.39 cr. in FY07 recording a growth of

24.87%. Net Interest Income (NII) jumped by 25.40% and stood at Rs.340.37 cr. as against Rs.271.41 cr. in FY07. Its

Operating Profit was up by 14.34% at Rs.196.19 cr. against Rs.171.58 cr. in FY07, while Net Profit was higher by 10.01% at

Rs.75.05 cr. compared to Rs.68.22 cr. last year. The FY08 EPS was Rs.2.35 against Rs.2.31 in FY07. Its Capital Adequacy

Ratio as on 31 March 2008 stood at 11.91% and the Net NPA of the bank was 2.27% as compared to 2.47% as on 31 March

2007.

SEL to set up integrated Textile & Apparel park

SEL Manufacturing Co. Ltd., an integrated multi-product textile compa

g

in

S

in

T

p

T

e

Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources

that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does

not accept any liability for the use of this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell

securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his

acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.

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Page 17

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