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A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL. XVII No. 14
Monday, February 18 - 24, 2008
Pages 18
Markets must stabilise
for a pre-Budget rally to unfold
By Sanjay R. Bhatia
It was a volatile week for the bourses. The listing of Reliance Power brought further pain to the markets as the indices
tanked on the underperformance of Reliance Power on listing. However, the markets managed to claw back to some
extent on the back of good global cues and on the back of short covering. Traders and speculators were seen unwinding
their positions in frontline index heavyweights, mid-cap and small cap stocks at higher levels. Incidentally, FIIs remained
net sellers in the cash segment but were net buyers in the
derivatives
segment.
Domestic institutional investors,
however, were net buyers supporting the markets at lower
levels. The volumes recorded have been low while the breadth
of the market remained weak even though it showed
occasional signs of recovery during the week.
Global cues remained mixed with mixed signals emanating
from the US economy. Crude oil prices that rose on the back of
fears of supplies from Venezuela and Mexico, come down
from the highs as concerns eased. But it is still close to a one-
month high. Inflation continues to remain a concern even as
the inflation rate has dropped a bit.
Even though the markets witnessed occasional bouts of smart
rallies, they were more on the back of short covering and some
value based buying at lower levels because follow-up buying
failed to emerge at higher levels. Now, it is important that markets consolidate and stabilise at present levels so as to lay a
foundation for a pre-budget rally to materialise. Follow-up buying at higher levels is essential for any sustainable rally to
unfold. In the meanwhile the markets are likely to take cues from the global markets, crude prices and rupee dollar
equation. Stock specific action will be witnessed amidst occasional bouts of volatility and choppiness.
Technically, on the upside if the Sensex sustains above the 17,475 level it is likely to test the 18,526 level. The Sensex has
support at the 17,475 followed by the 16,545 level. On the upside, if the Nifty sustains above 5156 level, it is likely to test
the 5519 level. The 5156 and 4987 are important support levels for the Nifty.
Traders and speculators could buy Hindustan Unilever with a target price of Rs.230-240 and a stop loss of Rs.195.
Bull hug on Valentine's Day
By Fakhri H. Sabuwala
14
th
February, Valentine's Day, should be the day of bears since teddy bears are the symbol of love and tenderness. But on
the bourses, it was the bull which hugged marketmen and investors doling out sugar free candies of 817 points on the
Sensex.
1
What marked the day was not the consistent rise and the paradigm shift in sentiment, but the absence of the wild swings
of volatility. The low volume was not a big concern. At least, it proves a point beyond doubt: the bear cartel, if any, did
not press any panic buttons. The 9:1 advance: decline ratio and with all the scrips closing nearly at their respective peaks
was a great respite after those deadly blows since 22
nd
January 2008.
The market has gone through the toughest period and the lull made life difficult not only for brokers but also for
investors. The big broking houses were busy making guesstimates of how low the Nifty or Sensex may sink. The
breaching of the 200 day moving average (200 DMA) downwards and remaining there for a couple of days gave
nightmares to marketmen. But it was the USA once again coming to our rescue with promising consumer spending
figures and sub prime woes cooling off giving the impression that the worst is over. Warren Buffet's interpretation of the
current woes of the US economy and his subsequent healing touch went well with the US investors.
As far as the Indian market is concerned, the Sensex or Nifty did not truly represent the erosion in values. Most mid-cap
and small cap counters had shaved off 40% to 60% of their mid-January highs and were quoting at the corresponding
Sensex levels of 10,000 to 11,000. Such valuations make such mid-caps and small caps very, very interesting.
In the wake of the market picking up momentum once again, large caps and blue chips are fast changing gear but beaten
down stories like Jaiprakash, KEI Industries, Paramount Communications and Finolex Industries promise a golden
harvest in the medium to long-term.
Jaiprakash Associates: Sinking to as low as Rs.250 from a recent high of Rs.510, this growth story finds support even from
a technical view point. The market fears a delay in the IPO of its power projects and the constraints that it may face in
Ganga project. The promoters did appear on TV to clarify this misconception and repair the damage. Since the sentiment
has cut deep in this scrip, it's only a matter of time before the company re-establishes its catchy advertisement jingle 'No
dream too big'.
KEI Industries: A leading player in the field of power cables, KEI manufactures broad range of power cables catering to
various industries and used under specific applications. A known brand name in the industry, it is an approved vendor of
major blue chip clients and will be there on all major power sector and related infrastructure projects.
The company's current fiscal revenue will be in the vicinity of Rs.791 cr. with PAT of Rs.65 cr. giving an EPS of Rs.11 on
its Rs.2 paid-up share. For FY09, the revenues can cross Rs.1120 cr. and net profit touching Rs.106. cr. giving a CAGR of
35% in revenue and 42% at net level.
The scrip by mid-January was hitting a continuous upper circuit and reached Rs.160 to fall back to half the rate in a
month. This beaten down scrip is poised to go up with vengeance. It's only a matter of time.
2
Will it sustain?
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Last week, the Sensex opened at 17427.34 and fell to a low of
16457.74. Further, it recovered to a high of 18142.92 and
closed the week at 18115.25 and thereby showed a net rise of
714 points on a week-to-week basis. The recovery from the
low of 16457 to 18142 shows some ray of hope but a lot of
restoration work is needed as the resistance is hanging
overhead.
The first resistance is from the island reversal formation
which has a gap at 18274-18509. This island reversal is not
the classical text book style nor is it 100% perfect in terms of
location and occurrence but its effect was witnessed as the
market had a slide down to 16457. Resistance of the gap of
18274-18509 will be on important resistance this week.
A trend line on the daily chart drawn from the top of 21206
and high of 20985 will offer resistance at 18300 on daily charts, which coincides with the gap of 18274-18509.
Retracement levels of the fall from 21206 to 15532 are placed at 17580, 18274 and 18968. The high registered last week was
18142, which is above 17580 and now the next level to watch out will be 18274 and 18968.
If we ignore the low of 15532 and take the higher bottom of 16457 as the low for a retracement of the fall from 21206 to
16457, then the pull back levels will be placed at 18274, 18834 and 19395. The pull back retracement level of 18274 and
18834 coincides with the resistance gap of 18274-18509.
The lower top for the Sensex is placed at 18895, which has almost tested the 0.618 level of fall from 21206 to 15532.
All the above mentioned points go to show that the Sensex is likely to witness stiff resistance levels. It now depends how
comprehensively it takes on all the retracement and resistance levels.
On the other hand, support will be in the range of 17464-17200, 16729-16608 and 15532. The Sensex did well last week and
hung on to the 200 day SMA (Simple Moving Average). It did close below it for a day but remained around the 200 day
SMA to get back strong support to the market.
Overall, we might get a
pull-back
to
higher
resistance
levels
but
sustainability is the issue
and the rise can create a
bull trap.
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS
A weekly breakout and
close above 19000 may
just save the market from
a bear grip. A weekly
close above 19000 is
required on Friday or
ideally above 19400. If
that happens, then the
Sensex will not only test
the top of 21206 but could
cross it convincingly to
move towards 24840. But
getting over optimistic
should be put on hold.
Let us see if the market
can survive at higher
levels first and then think
of the dream levels.
Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy
with what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to
Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value
then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal
of the up Trend.
Last
Center
Relative
Weekly
Up
Close
Point
Strength Reversal Trend
Scrips
Level 1 Level 2
Level 3 Level 4
Value
Date
Stop
Loss
Buy
Price
Buy
Price
Book
Profit
Book
Profit
REI AGRO
1229.00 890.7
1093.7
1161.3
1296.7
1499.7
85.1
1114.3
28/12/07
ESSAR SHIPPING
223.00
168.4
202.5
216.2
236.7
270.8
78.6
215.9
16/11/07
SHRIRAM TRANS. 394.10
319.8
365.5
382.6
411.2
456.9
77.0
393.3
15/02/08
INDIAN BANK
228.85
176.8
209.1
221.7
241.5
273.8
74.1
219.0
04/01/08
SBI
2298.00 1802.0
2102.0
2206.0
2402.0
2702.0
72.8
2229.0
15/02/08
WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS
Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell
with what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to
Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal
Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly
reversal of the Down Trend.
Last
Center
Relative
Weekly Down
Close
Point
Strength Reversal Trend
Scrips
Level 1 Level 2
Level 3 Level 4
Value
Date
Cover
Short
Cover
Short
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Stop
Loss
I-FLEX SOLUTIONS 1025.00 900.3
981.3
1018.7
1062.3
1143.3
19.80
1061.75 20/12/07
SPICE COMMUN.
32.25
24.5
29.8
32.7
35.1
40.4
23.50
35.81
11/01/08
TECH MAHINDRA
674.60
551.4
640.4
695.2
729.4
818.4
25.89
717.20
28/12/07
FIRSTSOURCE
49.80
39.5
46.2
49.3
52.9
59.6
26.49
52.16
11/01/08
MOSER-BAER
178.25
133.5
163.5
178.8
193.5
223.5
26.70
200.36
11/01/08
Sensex Wave Analysis
Wave I-2594 to 3758
Wave II-3758 to 2904
Wave III- Internals as
follows:
Wave 1- 2904 to 6249
Wave 2-6249 to 4227
Wave 3-4227 to 12671
Wave IV- 12671 to 8799
Wave V- Internals as
follows:
BUY LIST
Scrip
Last Close Buy Price Buy Price Buy Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
Monthly
RS
JUBILANT ORAGANOSYS
365.90
355.23
348.50
341.77
320.00
412.2
469.2
51.44
Wave 1-8799 to 14724
Wave 2-14724 to 12316
Wave 3-12316 to 21206.
Wave 4-21206 to 15532
(current ongoing move)
Internal of Wave 4
Wave A-21206 to 17203
Wave i-21206 to 2505
Wave ii-2505 to 20985
Wave iii-20985 to 15332
Wave iv-15332 to 18895
Wave v- 18895 to 16457
Wave B-16457 to 18142
(current ongoing move)
It appears to be a Wave v
failure that terminated
Wave A resulting in a
pull-back. This can be
EXIT LIST
Scrip
Last Close Sell Price Sell Price Sell Price Stop loss Target
Monthly Relative
Strength (RS)
ADANI ENTERPRISES
731.00
772.1
797.5
822.9
905.00
557.1
40.05
RAJESH EXPORTS
124.80
131.2
136.3
141.3
157.50
88.7
40.83
JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATE
286.40
321.4
340.8
360.1
422.80
157.3
40.84
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO
1778.00
1830.9
1872.5
1914.2
2049.00 1477.9
43.95
CENTURION BNK OF PUN
50.05
50.4
51.9
53.4
58.10
38.0
45.94
FEDERAL BANK
295.25
299.9
303.6
307.3
319.45
268.2
46.09
SREI INFRASTR.FINANC
172.75
185.4
191.9
198.3
219.25
130.7
46.75
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM C
361.65
367.8
381.0
394.2
437.00
255.8
46.76
BANK OF MAHARASHTRA
66.80
70.8
72.5
74.3
80.00
55.8
51.93
RELIANCE ENERGY
1710.00
1729.4
1809.5
1889.6
2149.00 1050.4
52.08
UCO BANK
52.10
52.7
54.5
56.4
62.35
37.0
56.88
3
Wave V now or Wave B.
Strategy for the week
Pull-back rallies are meant to generate cash. Use the higher levels to generate cash. As the market moves to a pull-back
rise, traders can get some good trading opportunities. Those who manage the risk well and trade with stop loss can get
into trading long positions and exit at higher levels. Please note that if stop losses are violated, then the bull trap ploy laid
would be successful. If the stop losses are not violated and the market sustains at higher levels, bears could be in serious
trouble. A breakout and close above 19000 or 19400 could create trouble for the bears. Traders trading long should be
clear in mind to exit long at Sensex 19000 plus mark. Sustainability is still not guaranteed in spite of the recovery.
* Most marketmen have turned bearish for the short to medium term and advise to postpone buying till March end.
Market does not show much strength and chance of further weakness is quite high.
TOWER TALK
* Videocon Industries, a diversified conglomerate, has come down to attractive levels. From its high of Rs.870 in early
Jan, it is available at Rs.360 level now. Keep accumulating at every dip.
* Although further downfall can't be ruled out, NIIT Tech, Financial Tech & I-Flex solution looks excellent bet at current
levels in the tech space.
* There may be a correction in real estate prices but companies like PBA Infra, Valecha, C&C Construction, Roman
Tarmat & Pratibha Industries are into infrastructure development and will continue to do well. Don't sell them in panic
as they are nit into housing construction.
* Zen Technology is holding strong only because of the recent placement with, market bull, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. One
can book profit now and buy later as its share price may come down after its March'08 numbers.
* Reliance Power will touch Rs.430 sooner than later and by then the mood of the market will be so robust like the
hysteria developing once again.
* Cals Limited is splitting its face value to Re.1 and is going great in refineries business.
* With Lok Sabha polls only a year away, FM should lock horns with his communist comrades and kick start the second
generation reforms while simultaneously taking care of the 'aam aadmi'.
* The rush for NFOs is seen as a weakness of Indian investors, who fail to realise that the unit value of Rs.10 per unit does
not represent the underlying NAV.
* Ansal Housing has a rich land bank of 2500 acres with almost half in its own name while the balance is under firm
collaborator agreement and is currently developing 1200 acres. With a likely EPS of Rs.45 in FY08 and Rs.60 in FY09, the
shares are being accumulated by knowledgeable persons.
* Ajanta Pharma's Rs.18 cr. expansion of R & D Centre is nearing completion. Sources project an EPS of Rs.16 in FY08 and
Rs.22 by FY09 and its share is likely to spurt to Rs.120 in the near term.
* Savera Industries (formerly Savera Hotels) is being bought by knowledgeable persons with a target of Rs.130 as it is
likely to register an EPS of Rs.14 in FY08 and Rs.20 in FY09.
* The shares of IDFC and Power Grid Corporation are being accumulated by FIIs and mutual funds.
* A leading brokerage house strongly recommends Surya Pharma for the long-term with a target price of Rs.150. SPL is
likely to post an EPS of Rs.32 in FY08.
* IVR Prime is recommended for a decent rise in the long-term as it is quoting half the price and is estimated to post an
EPS of Rs.35 in FY08 and Rs.50 in FY09.
* Morgan Stanley units are a good bet in the volatile market. The fund is converting to an open ended fund soon.
* Asian Oilfield services is at an attractive price level considering its future earnings potential.
* Companies with open offer are a good bet. Check out on Lanxess ABS, NDTV for risk-free investments.
* Budget could spur low budget realty growth. Eldeco and Ashiana Housing are good bets in this sector.
* Ennore Coke looks good in view of the buoyancy in the coke prices worldwide. The scrip could race past Rs.150 mark in
the next 6 considering its Metallurgical Coke project this months and power project next month.
* Phoenix International Ltd. has come up encouraging Q3 numbers and looks highly undervalued at Rs.29.
* Important developments are on in NEPC India Ltd. and the stock is already in the upper circuits.
* Walchandnagar Industries Ltd. looks good at the CMP of Rs.6280.
* K Sera Productions Ltd. came out with a good set of Q3 numbers. The scrip looks attractive at Rs.28 and is all set to
move up.
* The grey market premium on IPOs weakened last week with Rural Electrification Corporation at Rs.21/23. Its proxy
IPO application form for Rs.1 lakh retail application was quoting Rs.1800/2000.
* 18
th
February to 14
th
March'08 – Conjunction of Sun+Rahu in Kumbh and opposition of Sun with Saturn+Ketu can bring
about political instability and prove highly volatile for the Sensex.
BEST BETS
4
5
By Saarthi
Yuken India (Code: 522108)
Rs.209.95
Yuken India Ltd. (YIL) was set up in 1976 in technical and financial collaboration with Yuken Kogya Co. Ltd., Japan,
mainly for the manufacture of oil hydraulic equipment. Since then, it has emerged as a leading and reputed manufacturer
of power saving hydraulic pumps & valves. Its product range consists of all types of hydraulic pumps like vane pumps,
piston pumps, gear pumps, pal pumps etc. Under valves, it manufactures various types of hydraulic valves for industrial
and mobile applications including pressure control valves, modular valves, flow control valves, logic valves, electro
proportional valves, servo valves, direction control valves & mobile control vavles. Besides, it also manufactures complete
hydraulic power units as per customer specifications, cylinders, parison controllers, actuators, accumulators and power
packs. Moreover, it also supplies related accessories such as cartridge kits, pipe flanges, air bleed valves, act pressure
switch, sub plates, MMC manifolds, modular bolt kits, pump mounting brackets, coolers etc. Hydraulic devices are very
popular in heavy engineering industry as an effective means of automation. Hence the company's products find extensive
use in various key sectors like machine tools, material handling equipment, construction machinery, drill rigs,
automobiles, defence, steel, power & cement plants, plastic machinery etc.
YIL operates through its main foundry plant at Bangalore and four subsidiaries spread across Bangalore, Hyderabad and
Chennai. Its subsidiary, Yuflow Engineering, manufactures hydraulic cylinders for industrial use: Sriplas Engineering
acts as an ancillary unit for machined components and Coretec Engineering manufacture iron cores for solenoid valves
and Prism Hydraulics to manufacture solenoid coils. Earlier in 1991, the company formed a joint venture to manufacture
radial piston motors in collaboration with Sai of Italy, the largest manufacturers of radial piston motors in the world. In
order to fulfill the rising demand, YIL is implementing a gradual expansion plan to increase its capacity multifold.
Accordingly, it has recently doubled its hydraulic casting products capacity to 2400 TPA and is further augmenting it to
6000 TPA within next 2-3 years by installing additional hi-tech machineries in the existing foundry unit. Recently it made
a tie up with Hydrocontrols SPA, Italy, to produce and market state-of-the-art mobile control valves especially for
agriculture, construction, earth moving and lifting machineries. Importantly, YIL has forayed into the Chinese steel
industry by successfully commissioning hydraulic systems for a cold rolling mill line in China for M/s. Changshu
Everbright. In short, apart from catering to the domestic market YIL is looking to increase its foothold in global markets as
well.
Interestingly, YIL runs a 'Hydraulic School' at different levels for its customers to provide hands-on experience and has
already trained more than 6000 engineers from a large number of organisations, both from India and abroad. Financially,
the company is doing well and has reported a 20% rise in sales to Rs.39 cr. and 70% jump in bottomline to Rs.3.90 cr. for
the first nine months ending 31
st
December 2007. Considering its expansion plan and the strong demand for its products,
it is estimated to report a topline of Rs.100 cr. and bottomline of Rs.5.50 cr. for FY08. This translates into EPS of Rs.18 on
its tiny equity of Rs.3 cr. For FY09, EPS is estimated to shoot up to around Rs.25. Thus investors are strongly
recommended to buy it at a reasonable discounting by 12 times as the scrip can easily touch Rs.300 in 9-12 months.
Avantel Softech (Code: 532406)
Rs.64.95
Incorporated in 1990, Avantel Softech Ltd. (ASL) is a technology driven, ISO 9001 - 2000 accredited company that offers
telecom products and software solutions. It has over the past few years developed expertise in telecom hardware, relevant
embedded software and network management systems. In order to provide better solutions in communications and
computing, ASL has made strategic alliance with renowned entities like Space Applications Centre, ISRO, L3
Communications - Narda, USA and Vedang Radio Technology. Through its government recognized R&D division, ASL
has developed a number of products for the defence sector by ensuring compliance of stringent defence standards. In fact,
it was the first Indian company to supply HDSL (High Speed Digital Subscriber Line) and DSL equipments. The company
primarily caters to the telecom and defence sector organizations. Broadly, its business model can be divided into the
following two segments:
A) Telecom: ASL is actively involved in design and development of products based on high power broadband wireless,
satellite communication and broadband access technologies. The design, development and integration of wireless and
access products are carried out using its own proprietary software tools. Besides, the company has a test and measuring
facility for design, development and manufacture of wireless products (up to 20 GHz) and various access products
supported by compilers and evaluation modules to test and integrate the software and hardware. This segment can be
further subdivided into the following two divisions:-
•
Wireless - ASL designs and manufacturers repeaters, filters, splitters, tappers, combiners, couplers & amplifiers
to enhance the capacity and coverage of wireless communication networks for use in GSM, CDMA and 3G
networks. In short, it offers products for indoor and outdoor environments to improve signal quality, coverage
and capacity
•
Satelite Communication - Ironically, ASL's design and engineering team has developed a range of subsystem for
satellite earth stations in collaboration with ISRO. It has developed customised solutions for INSAT based mobile
satellite services with advance microwave, digital wireless communication and signal processing products for
military and commercial applications. Hence it offers mobile satellite services for messaging, tracking and all
locations based services with appropriate network security. Using this same technology, it provides specialised
products like Ship borne terminal, handheld terminal, S-band receiver, UHF transmitter, burst demodulator etc
which are one of its kind.
B) Software: ASL provides services in the areas of ERP, web enabled business processes as well as
maintenance/enhancement of legacy systems, network management systems, remote monitoring & management,
automation of test equipments and corporate portals. Its ERP software product called 'FunWork' covers all core and
extended business critical functions of the enterprise such as marketing and sales, finance and accounts, manufacturing
operations, customer support, personnel and administration. It also has expertise in electronic design services for product
development, re-engineering, PCB design etc. Under multimedia, ASL offers complete in-house creative and production
capabilities-from concept development and script writing to programming, assembly, and testing.
Presently, ASL has development centres at Hyderabad and in Boston, USA. Its client base comprises of telecom service
providers like Airtel, BSNL, Ericsson, Vodafone, Idea, L3Communications, Nokia and Siemens and many other
government organizations like BEL, Defence Labs, ECIL, Indian Army, Indian Navy, ISRO Centres etc. Notably, ASL can
develop transmitters and receivers to offer mobile satellite services for applications in the defence and other sectors.
Secondly, its products for EW and COMINT applications have been well received by defence PSUs such as BEL and
ECIL. The company is also developing a network manager to offer wide range of VSAT services with cost effective
indigenous technology. It has also signed a Transfer of Technology (TOT) agreement with ISRO for supply of hubs and
satellite interactive terminals for EduSat networks. Moreover, it is developing various products for GPS based vehicle
tracking system. To enhance its presence, the company is in talks with some international players involved in the system
integration business for strategic tie-ups and alliance. In future, it plans to address requirements of railways, coast guards,
fishing trawlers and transport vehicles. To conclude, the company has huge potential for future growth. For the first nine
months ending 31
st
December'07, its sales jumped up 135% to Rs.19 cr. whereas PAT zoomed up to Rs.3.40 cr. against
Rs.0.60 cr. in the last fiscal. Historically, Q4 is the best quarter for the company and it may end FY08 with sales of Rs.35 cr.
with net profit of Rs.5 cr. This works out to an EPS of Rs.10 on its equity of Rs.5.15 cr. At a current Enterprise value of less
than Rs.35 cr. It's a good bet and can give 50% return is a year's time.
Sterlite Technologies Ltd.: A resurgent stock
ANALYSIS
By Devdas Mogili
Sterlite Technologies Ltd. (STL), formerly known as Sterlite Optical Technologies Ltd., an Aurangabad (Maharashtra)
based company belongs to the Vedanta Group earlier known as the Sterlite Group. Sterlite Technologies was formed after
the demerger of the telecom business of Sterlite Industries (India), w.e.f. 1
st
July 2000 and is engaged in manufacturing
and marketing optical networking products including optical fibre and optical fibre cables. Its businesses can be broadly
classified into Optical Fibre, Fibre Optic Cables, Copper Telecom, Structured Cabling, Customer Premise Equipment
(CPE), Power Transmission Cables etc.
The Vedanta Group has interests in Copper, Aluminium, Mining and Telecom across four continents from North America
to Australia. STL has its manufacturing facilities Aurangabad, Silvassa, Dadra & Nagar Haveli. Anil Agarwal, the
chairman of Vedanta Group is the chairman the company.
STL is a leading developer and manufacturer of optical fibre and fibre optical cables worldwide and is India's sole
integrated optical fibre manufacturer with a manufacturing capacity of 4 Million kilometre (Km). The company enjoys a
strong, globally competitive reputation. Last year, it acquired a power transmission business to enable it to participate in
the power growth story in India
In FY07, the company acquired the Power Transmission Line Division from Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., as a going
concern with effect from 1st July 2006 for a consideration of Rs.148.5 cr.
STL is the market leader with a share of 60% in optical fibre and telecom cable products and exports over 35% of its total
sales volume in optical Fibre products. The global optical fibre and cable scenario has changed especially in the USA and
is far more pronounced in the long haul segment of the US market. However, the Chinese market continues to show very
robust volume growth and is emerging as one of the key markets for STL, wherein the company has been increasing its
sales. In both the optical fibre & power cable businesses, the company has nearly achieved 100% capacity utilisation.
Power: STL's power transmission conductor cables were successfully commissioned by PGCIL (Power Grid Corporation
of India) in the first 765 KV EHV (extra high voltage) transmission line to be charged in India.
6
The company was the sole manufacturer and supplier of over 4200 km of ASCR Bersimis conductors that were installed
in circuit-I of the 351 km route of the Sipat-Seonl EHV transmission line that connects the states of Chattisgarh & Madhya
Pradesh. The Sipat-Seoni line would transmit 1500MVA power on a single circuit line. These 765 KV lines will be able to
link generation projects at the mine pitheads with the consuming states across the country and in process, reduce
transmission losses.
The company has a manufacturing capacity of 1,15,000 MT, making it the largest manufacturer in India and among the
top 5 global manufacturers of power conductors. It currently has about 3% global market share for power transmission
conductors and these products are sold in 38 countries across Africa, Middle East, Asia & Europe.
The company currently supplies about 27% of India's total demand for power transmission & distribution (T&D)
conductors. In H1FY08, its exports alone accounted for about 28% of its total sale of power conductors.
STL is a significant contributor to the global power sector through indigenous manufacture of the complete range of
power transmission conductors of extra high voltages (400 KV – 800 KV), High Voltages (66 KV - 220KV) and power
distribution conductors (11 KV - 33 KV). It has a fortified its market share to about 14% in Africa & the Middle East with
its power conductors sold in 32 countries across the region and currently meets about 27% of India's demand for power
T&D conductors.
Expansion & Diversification: As an extension to its Access Business, it commenced manufacturing of ADSL2+ modems
that cater to the single-user and multi-user broadband needs for residential and commercial usage. STL's range of wired
and wireless modems were developed in-house and it has an annual installed capacity of 7,20,000 modems.
After this expansion & diversification, STL serves as a 'one-stop window' for a comprehensive suite of Telecom and
Energy products that includes Optical Fibre, Fibre Optic Cables, Copper Telecom Cables, LAN Cables, Power
Transmission & Distribution Conductors, Energy Cables, ADSL Modems, Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH) and Multi Protocol
Label Switching (MPLS) solutions.
Order Book: On 8
th
January 2008, STL received a contract worth Rs.140 cr. from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam
for manufacture and supply of ACSR moose power transmission conductors. In November 2007, it has bagged an order of
Rs.143 cr. order from BSNL for supply of copper telecom cables.
Recently, it also received a US $17.5 million contract from Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo) for manufacture
and supply of AAAC power transmission conductors and the deliveries are scheduled between April to September 2008.
Performance: In the initial years, the performance of its Telecom Division was adversely affected due to the sluggish
business conditions prevailing in the telecom cable business, particularly in Jelly-Filled Cables. As a result, its past
performance was lacklustre. However, the company made a smart turnaround in FY06 and notched up a good
performance in FY07.
Financial Highlights:
(Rs. in cr.)
Latest Results: Sales rose 59.91% to
Rs.502.03 cr. in Q3FY08 as against
Rs.313.95 cr. during Q3FY07 while net
profit rose 105.13% to Rs.26.40 cr. in
Q3FY08 as against Rs.12.87 cr. during
Q3FY07. It posted a basic EPS of Rs.4.26
and a diluted EPS of Rs.4.05. The
annualized basic EPS works out to
Rs.17.04 and diluted EPS of Rs.16.20
Particulars
QE 31/12/07
QE 31/12/06
YE 31/03/07
Net Sales/Income
502.03
313.95
1198.15
Other Income
0.17
0.01
5.15
Total Expenditure
443.60
280.64
1087.11
a. Inc/Dec in Stock
(2.70)
(41.30)
45.37
b. Raw Materials
372.93
277.77
869.24
c. Staff Cost
11.66
7.23
29.66
d. Other Expenditure
61.71
36.94
142.84
PBIDT
58.60
33.32
116.19
Interest (net)
11.92
10.02
31.54
PBDT
46.68
23.30
84.65
Financials: The company's current equity
is Rs.32.23 cr. with a book value of
Rs.64.13. It has a ROCE of 11.60%, RONW
of 13.78% and a debt equity ratio of 1.12.
Depreciation
9.49
7.08
31.57
Net Profit bef Tax
37.19
16.22
53.08
Current tax
4.21
1.83
6.08
MAT
(4.21)
(1.83)
(6.04)
Deferred tax
10.58
3.32
1.72
Share Profile: The company's shares with
a face value of Rs.5 are listed and traded
both on the BSE and NSE in the A group.
Its share price touched a 52-week high of
Rs.381 and a low of Rs.145. At its current
market price of Rs.211.60, it has a market capitalization of Rs.1364.15 cr. STL has a beta value of 1.
FBT
0.22
0.03
0.46
Net profit after tax
26.40
12.87
50.86
Paid up equity (FV: Rs.5)
32.23
29.40
30.80
Res Exc Rev Reser
-
-
381.15
Basic EPS (Rs)
4.26
2.19
8.59
Diluted EPS (Rs)
4.05
1.99
7.83
Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as shown below:
FY07 - 15%; FY06 - 10%.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoter's shareholding is to the extent of 44% while the balance of 56% is with the non
corporate promoters, institutions and the Indian Public. Mutual funds like HSBC, PRU ICICI, BOB, DSP ML, Birla
Advantage Fund and Tata Mutual Fund have been gradually accumulating the STL share from June 2007 onwards.
7
Prospects: India is experiencing an unprecedented boom in telecommunications. New technologies and services like 3G
rollouts, National Internet Backbone, e-governance, IPTV, FTT, continued upgrades and replacements of existing
infrastructure set-ups will keep the demand for telecom equipment and telecom cables at growth rates higher than
elsewhere globally.
Besides, 'Power for all by 2012' is the vision of the Ministry of Power, Government of India. India's transmission plan
focuses on the creation of a 'National Grid' in a phased manner by adding over 60,000 KM of Transmission Network by
2012.
Conclusion: STL is the Sterlite Group's vehicle for participation in the growing infrastructure sectors of Telecom and
Power. Over the years, the company has transformed itself from an India-centric, manufacturing organization into a truly
global, market-centric organization. Its vision is to grow its business into a $1 billion company by 2010 and achieve a
position within the Top 5 globally, in each of its business segments.
At its current market price of Rs.211.60, the share price quotes at a P/E less than 13 times its FY08 earnings against the
industry average multiple of about 16. Considering the promoters background, its excellent performance and the bright
prospects of the telecom and power sectors, the STL share can be added to one's portfolio at current levels and more so on
declines for decent gains in the medium-to-long-term.
Sensex recovers on global cues
MARKET
By Ashok D. Singh
The Sensex added 650.36 points or 3.72% to 18,115.25 for the week ended Friday, 15 February 2008. The Nifty gained
182.55 points or 3.56% to 5,302.90 for the week. Poor debut by India's biggest ever IPO, Reliance Power, hit the bourses at
the onset of the week on Monday, 11
th
February 2008. However the market recovered later as global markets rallied
following an unexpected rise in US retail sales in January 2008. Markets also witnessed volatility on Friday after US
Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, alluded to the possibility of US nearing a recession, indicating that the Fed may
continue to ease interest rates. Sensex gained on 3 out of 5 trading sessions in the week.
The BSE Mid-Cap index declined 41.19 points or 0.54% to 7,592.08 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index slumped 299.22
points or 3.02% to 9,621.13.
Recovery in industrial production and positive global cues failed to offer solace to Indian investors after the sharp setback
on Monday. Key indices shot up in early trade but were unable to sustain at higher level and finally ended the volatile
session with losses with Sensex falling 22.90 points or 0.14% at 16,608.01 on Tuesday 12 February 2008.
Positive global cues and some hectic buying in large-caps helped the market breach the five-day losing streak. The Sensex
rose 341.13 points or 2.05% at 16,949.14 on Wednesday 13 February 2008 followed by 817.49 points or 4.82% at 17,766.63
on Thursday 14 February 2008. The rally in global markets was triggered by an unexpected rise in US retail sales in
January 2008 that helped ease recession worries in the world's largest economy.
Posting gains for the third successive session, the key benchmark indices settled on a firm note with Sensex gaining 348.62
points or 1.96% to 18,115.25, on Friday, 15
th
February 2008. Major support to the market came in from the metal and oil
sector stocks. Buying was witnessed in mid-caps and small-caps, as reflected in the strong market breadth. After sliding in
early trade tracking weak Asian stocks, the market moved higher in the later half of the trading session as buying
intensified after Asian markets recovered.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh while addressing an industry conference on 15
th
February 2008 in New Delhi, expressed
confidence on sustaining a 9% annual economic growth despite a possible global slowdown. The minister also cautioned
India must be aware that it cannot be completely insulated from chilly global winds that may blow in its direction.
Annual inflation, based on the wholesale price index, moved down 4.07% in the week ended 2 February 2008 compared
with 4.11% in the week ended 26 January 2008. The market estimate stood at 4.16%. Inflation figure for the week ended 8
December 2008 was revised upwards to 3.84% as against 3.65% reported earlier.
MSCI has included Reliance Petroleum, Essar Oil, Centurion Bank of Punjab and Steel Authority of India in a number of
MSCI Inc. indices. The inclusion of these firms in the MSCI gauges will increase demand for these stocks by fund
managers whose funds track the indices.
FIIs were net sellers of shares worth Rs.279.80 cr. in this month till 13 February 2008. They were net sellers of Rs.13,315.40
cr. so far in calendar 2008.
Domestic markets will track global indices as US recession worries continue to haunt global markets. The Union Budget
2008-09 that would be presented by the finance ministry at the fag end of the month will be the next major trigger for the
market.
MARKET
8
Market regains strength
SEBI finally wakes up to the F&O game
The stock markets seem to have completed their disastrous downward journey last week after ruining the fortunes of
millions of investors who braved the near 5000 points fall on the Sensex in just 3 weeks creating a history of sorts.
The BSE Sensex, which had ended week before last on Friday, 8
th
February 2008 at 17,464.89 nosedived by over 1000
points on a single day as it hit an intra-day low of 16,457.74 on Monday, 11
th
February 2008 and closed the day at 16,631
with a loss of 833.98 points. This was the day the Reliance Power stock was listed on the bourses at a discount to its offer
price of Rs.450 per share. Together with the all round weakness seen in the markets, this poor listing
aggravated the fears of marketmen leading to an all round panic especially when investors were hoping
for some kind of recovery beginning from last week. The technical analysts set in the scare by referring to
the next support level as per the practice of referring to the next support and resistance levels every time.
After the worst intra-day bottom of 16,457.74 on Monday, the Sensex attempted to record gains at an
intra-day high of 16,966.72 the next day on Tuesday, 12
th
February 2008 but could not sustain it and in
fact closed with a minor loss of 23 points at 16,608. But this did give an indication that any further fall
from this level is unlikely. It appears that the celebrations by the bears over the last 3 weeks had also
reached its peak just like the untiring celebrations by the bulls over the last 3 months of 2007 resulting in the Sensex
kissing its historic high of 21,206.77 on 10
th
January 2008. Possibly, the bears had realized that the bulls has been
hammered too hard and must be allowed some respite before they took up the cudgels once again.
G.S. Roongta
Interestingly, I watched the CNBC TV channel on Monday and listened to its favourite bear, Shankar Sharma of First
Global who now displayed his true colours speaking of the worse to come quite in the same manner as he confessed to
having changed his opinion about the Indian bourses and adopting a bullish stance projecting a 25,000 mark on the
Sensec in 2008. it barely took this old bear operator to reveal his paws in matter of just a few weeks.
I maintain that this channel must own responsibility of such contradictory forecasts time and again as it tends to mislead
millions of investors and its misuse by market operators cannot be ruled out. This is fairly evident as Mr. Sharma's
comments on Monday were immediately negated the very next day as the Sensex rebounded to a high of 16,966.72 before
losing 23 points at closing for the day. But on Wednesday, 13
th
February 2008 it gathered momentum and closed the day
with a gain of 341.13 points and another handsome rise of 817.49 points on Thursday, 14
th
February 2007. The 1000+
points rise over these two days was a tight slap on his bearish observations. I feel sorry for those who may have been
misled by his gloomy observation and sold out or went short on fears of worse days ahead.
I do hope readers of this column appreciate my observations and pointing out the mischief created by the TV channels
and sometimes by the pink papers as in this case.
It was again interesting to note that brokerages did not allow their clients to take any fresh positions and but against their
sales if they wished to. This clearly indicates about the weakening financial position of the broking community, which is
facing a difficult cash flow situation in meeting their day-to-day commitments. Thus a serious payment situation within
broking counters is very much evident, as hinted last week, even though brokers are somehow managing to tide over the
crisis with the help of their bankers and the stock exchanges.
I am happy to report that the
watchdog body has finally woken up
to the need of a mechanism of circuit
filters in the F&O segment as I had
voiced earlier two weeks back. SEBI is
reported to have realized the
ramifications of the 'F&O scam' as I
have labelled it last week and decided
to instill a checking mechanism as
reported in a leading pink paper on
Wednesday, 13
th
February 2008 under
the headline 'SEBI to tweak F&O rules
to check swings'.
I hope readers appreciate the initiative
taken by us in propagating new
measures needed to make the markets
safer for investors at large and hope
that the authorities also investigate
and take to task brokerages that
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Tel.: 022-22654805 Telefax: 022-22616970
Email: moneytimes@vsnl.com Website: www.moneytimes.in
9
forcefully squared up client positions at throwaway prices, which has proved to be the cause of the panic and resulted in
loss of thousands of crores of rupees. This is easily the worst ever scam in the history of the stock market and investors
need to be assured that the watchdog body is investigating it.
Coming back to the market, investors have seen the worst crisis and immediate rally thereafter last week itself as it
bounced back gaining over 1200 points on the last three trading sessions and thereby neutralised the losses suffered on
the first two days of the week.
Suddenly stocks that were drifting lower and lower staged a sharp recovery. Prominent among them were Grasim, HDIL,
Tata Power, Aban Llyod, BHEL, SAIL and several other highfliers. Oil & Gas stocks, too, recorded good gains following
the rise in price of petrol and diesel. The Reliance stocks, which had been beaten down on account of the Reliance Power
listing, joined the race.
FIIs, who were sole sellers, have stopped selling knowing that stocks are now available at attractive levels and others will
jump into the frame if they push sales any further.
Investors who are sitting on cash may buy selectively stocks like ACC, Arvind Mills, Andhra Sugar, Idea Cellular, Power
Grid, Hindalco, Grasim, M&M and Tata Tea from the fast moving 'A' group.
There are hundreds of other stocks available below their book value in the 'B1' and 'B2' group and readers must choose
based on their wisdom and experience. Elecon Engineering, Eimco Elecom, BILT, Mukand, Graphite, Tube Investments
etc. that were recommended earlier in their column are available below 30-50% of their peak values. Investors should take
advantage of this significant fall as their earnings and growth is intact.
Mid & Small Cap schemes: Risk reward ratios?
MUTUAL FUNDS
By Devangi Bhuta
Of late, many mutual fund houses have launched NFOs to invest in small and mid-cap stocks. Before the sharp
corrections were witnessed in the market, these mid-cap and small-cap counters had risen by almost 40-50% and what
happened thereafter is not surprising.
Given that despair seems to have replaced hope barring the upswings witnessed on the penultimate day and the last
trading day of the past week, investors need to understand the risk-reward ratio associated with these schemes.
As most veterans would put it, recovery will be faster in the frontline stocks as compared to the small and mid caps.
Investors who are considering putting their hard earned money in these schemes need to know that they will be
assuming higher risk and consequently the downside could be greater. This is not to say that the mid-cap and small-cap
space does not have fundamentally good stocks and investors can depend on the fund manager's expertise.
Further, it appears that most marketmen are awaiting the Budget to give a direction to the market, which can be either
way. This aggravates the risk here and is too large to be overlooked.
NFOs open
HSBC Small Cap Fund
Issue Open 19-Jan-2008
Issue Close 03-Mar-2008
It is a three year close-ended Equity Scheme. The objective of the scheme is to provide long-term capital appreciation
primarily from a diversified portfolio of equity and equity related instruments of small cap companies.
Lotus India Mid N Small Cap Fund
Issue Open 07-Jan-2008
Issue Close 19-Feb-2008
It is a close-ended equity scheme. The investment objective of the scheme seeks to provide long term capital appreciation
by investing in a portfolio predominantly constituted of equity and equity related instruments of mid and small cap
companies.
Scheme Analysis
Kotak Opportunities Fund
The objective of this scheme is to generate capital appreciation through a diversified portfolio of equity and equity related
instruments. As per the January 2008 Factsheet, the scheme has generated returns to the tune of 56% in the last one year as
compared to 28% by the benchmark S&P CNX 500.
17% of the scheme is concentrated in the construction space while the next highest exposure of 11% is in the financial
segment. Surprisingly, the scheme was heavy in the software segment half a year back but has cut its exposure drastically
thereafter.
10
The stocks which have high exposure includes heavyweights like Reliance Industries, Reliance Energy and Larsen &
Tourbro etc, while its exposure to Reliance Capital appears to have increased dramatically more on account of the
increase in its stock price.
Other interesting stocks from the power and industrial capital goods space are Jindal Steel & Power, IDFC etc. At present
20% of its money is in money market instruments.
On the flip side, the scheme has an extremely high portfolio turnover rate of 238.4% as was the case with schemes that
play more on momentum stocks and are not restricted to long-term fundamental stories.
Clearly, this scheme is only for those with a very high risk appetite and given the backdrop of a volatile market serious
investors may consider an exit and wait on the sidelines till there is some direction to the markets.
11
By Saarthi
STOCK WATCH
Hind Rectifiers Ltd. (Code: 504036) (Rs.144.20) is one of the leading manufacturers of locomotive transformers, rectifiers,
inverters and power electronics like diodes and thyristors (types of semiconductor devices) etc. that are used in
converting the current from AC to DC and vice versa. It derives more than 50% of its revenues from the railways and 20%
from the power industry. For December'07 quarter, sales improved by 15% to Rs.23 cr. and net profit grew by 10% to
Rs.2.80 cr. Of late, the company has set up two new units in the tax-free zone of Uttarakhand but in order to get the
Cenvat paid on raw materials it is still operating from its old plant in Mumbai and Nagpur. The new orders booked will,
however, be manufactured at the Uttarakhand plant only. Recently, the company signed a technical collaboration
agreement with M/s. Infineon Technologies AG, Germany, for manufacturing IGBT based primeSTACK, which will
complement its existing products. It may end FY08 with sales of Rs.95 cr. and PAT of around Rs.11 cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.15 on
its tiny equity of Rs.1.50 cr. with a face value of Rs.2 per share. Importantly, the company may report an EPS of over Rs.20
for FY09 and at a modest discounting by 12 times. Its share price can double in 12-15 months.
*****
Shanthi Gears Ltd. (Code: 522034) (Rs.68.60) manufactures gears, gearboxes, geared motors and gear assemblies both
standard and custom-made. Its product portfolio includes a range of worm gear boxes, helical & bevel gear box, geared
motor, custom built gear box, mill gear box, open gearing, CNC machine tools and products for the textile industry. It
also manufactures high precision gears for the marine and aviation industries. It recorded 25% growth in sales at Rs.176
cr. and 30% rise in net profit of Rs.32 cr. for the nine months ending 31
st
December 2007. Notably, the company makes
gearboxes of 250 KV for windmills and is looking for technical collaboration to manufacture higher capacity gears for
windmills. On the back of strong industrial and economic growth, the company is sitting on a strong order book of more
than Rs.100 cr. For FY08, it can clock a turnover of Rs.250 cr. with net profit of Rs.45 cr., which will lead to an EPS of
Rs.5.25 on its fully diluted equity of Rs.8.60 cr. with a face value of Rs.1 per share. For FY09, it has the potential to register
an EPS of Rs.6.50 which means that the scrip is trading fairly cheap at P/E ratio of just 10. Besides, the company has
around 18 acres of surplus land in prime location of Coimbatore that can fetch a handsome value if sold.
*****
Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (I) Ltd. (Code: 523398) (Rs.131.25), a 68% subsidiary of Hitachi-Japan is among the top
air-conditioning companies in India with an installed capacity of 2,50,000 units per year. It manufactures high
technological home and commercial air
conditioners like window AC, split AC,
concealed splits, ductables, chillers and
specific telecom cooling solutions. Its plant at
Kadi, Gujarat is among the seven Hitachi
room air conditioner facilities worldwide.
Couple of years back, the company also
introduced 3-Door refrigerators and big
capacity washing machines, which are
basically imported from the Hitachi factory in
Thailand. Its topline grew by 45% to Rs.83 cr.
but PAT shot up 240% to Rs.5.40 cr. for the
December'07 quarter. Due to its strong brand
equity, the company has managed to retain
the high quality position as well as price
realisation in spite of stiff competition.
Accordingly, it may report total revenue of
Rs.425 cr. with PAT of around Rs.37 cr. for
FY08. This works out to an EPS of Rs.16 on its
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L. G. Balakrishnan & Bros Ltd. (Code: 500250) (Rs.23.15) is engaged into auto transmission & metal forming business
manufacturing products like chains for both the automotive and industrial segments, sprockets, tensioners and belts on
one hand and fine blanking, forgings (cold, hot and warm), machined components, wire drawing on the other. In order to
cater to its OEM customers, the company has put up a new manufacturing plant in tax free zone of Pantnagar,
Uttarakhand last year. Notably, the company meets 100% of transmission requirements of Bajaj Auto and TVS and nearly
80% of Hero Honda's. For the first nine months ending December'07, it registered 12% growth in sales to Rs.394 cr. but
profit grew marginally to Rs.10.80 cr. Of late, it has also set up a reenfield forging plant near its existing plant at Annur.
Interestingly, it is demerging its forging division into LGB Forge Ltd. and will allot one share for every one share held in
the company. For FY08, it may clock a turnover of Rs.525 with net profit of Rs13.50 cr. i.e. an EPS of Rs.1.70 on its equity
of Rs.7.85 cr. with face value of Rs.1 per share. However, the continuous pressure for price reduction by OEMs and severe
competition in the after market coupled with volatile input cost are causes of concern. But only at sharp declines.
By Kukku
FIFTY FIFTY
Investment Calls
* Revathi Equipments (Rs.975.45) is reported to have good orders for this quarter from Coal India. It achieved sales of
Rs.69 cr. for the first nine months of FY08 but Q4 can post a sharp growth in sales which is projected to Rs.135/140 cr. and
projected net profit with improved margins is likely to be above Rs.15 cr. for FY08 on its small equity base of Rs.3.07 cr. on
a standalone basis. With many private companies have ventured into coal & iron ore mining, the company has started
getting orders from the private sector too.
The company is in the process of selling its windmill division and is expected to earn a good profit given the good
demand for the same. In construction equipment, it makes wider range of concrete equipments comprising of batching
plants (that prepare the concrete mix), transit mixers (that transport the concrete mix) and Concrete pumps similar to
Schwing Stetter, the leader in the field. Greaves Cotton is another manufacturer but the Revathi range is much larger to
suit Indian requirements and the company expects strong growth in sales & profits over the next few years. Current year
sales from this division is likely to be Rs.30 cr. which may go up sharply to Rs.125 cr. by next year as the new plant goes
on stream in March 2008 while the total projected sale for FY09 is likely to be Rs.250 cr.
Investors who booked partial profits above Rs.1500 level can think of adding back at current levels. Fresh investment is
advised only on reactions around Rs.800/850 level. The stock can touch Rs.2000 in the next 12 to 15 months.
* SKF India (Rs.347.80), a 53.58% subsidiary of SKF, Sweden is the market leader in the bearing industry and the main
bearing supplier to all consumer segments viz. the automotive, electrical, industrial and aftermarket. In addition to the
comprehensive range of bearings being manufactured at its Pune and Bangalore plants or imported into India from the
group's overseas plants, SKF also offers a wide range of bearing related products and systems such as Condition
Monitoring Systems for Trouble-free Operations, Linear Motion Products, Machine Tool Spindle maintenance, Reliability
Systems, etc.
For the nine months ended 30
th
September 2007, sales stood at Rs.1148.25 cr., up 19%. OPM improved by 500 bps to 16.9%
and took OP up by 68% to Rs.193.62 cr.
PBT before Extraordinary items stood at Rs.185.64 cr., up by 80% while PAT shot up to Rs.120 cr., up by 72%.
Its equity capital is Rs.52.73 cr. and it has already posted an EPS of Rs.22 for the first nine months. If this trend is any
indication, then full year EPS is likely to be around Rs.28.
After Q3 results, Rakesh Makhija, Managing Director said, "Our business continues to grow sharply driven by a strong
focus on our major customers and segments. Exports continue to ramp up significantly while we drive our costs down in
all areas of operations".
Thus it is attractive at Rs.330 level and has good scope on the upside. The 52-week high/low is Rs.525/Rs.276.
Leading mutual funds have investment in this company. At current levels, there is hardly any downside while it has good
scope for touching its previous high over the next one year. Investors can safely add this stock for good long-term growth.
* Sharyans Resources' (Rs.293.95) consolidated profit for FY08 may be Rs.40 cr. This does not include any profit from
Intime Spectrum, in which the company holds 40% stake. 50% of the consolidated profit will be from finance and the
balance from real estate. Intime spectrum is the second largest share registrar in India.
The company is developing 2.2 million sq. ft. in Chennai together with other developers and has 33% stake. The total cost
of land for this project is Rs.900 cr. and the value of the total project is expected to be around Rs.1500 cr.
In Pune, it has 6% stake in a realty project. Total cost of the land for this project is Rs.600 cr. and it is holds from 2% stake
to 5-6% stake in various other projects.
12
It also provides engineering and design services for infrastructure projects through its associate company, Sai
Engineering, in which it has 30% stake. Sai Engineering has around 350-400 engineers and its outlook is said to be very
encouraging.
At Andheri, Mumbai, it has 45,000 sq. ft. of built-up area + 10,000 sq. ft. of parking. It might lease out this facility at
monthly rental of Rs.125-150/sq. ft.
In Coimbatore it is developing 100 acres along with Kalpataru group. In Kolkata, it has three projects in tie-up with other
developers.
Its fully diluted equity will be around Rs.17 cr. The stock reacted from its high of Rs.580 to the current level of Rs.285,
where it looks attractive for investment. Investors are advised to stay invested in this stock for good long-term growth.
Market Guidance
* Walchandnagar Industries (Rs.6283.50) will issue and allot equity shares/equity linked securities/securities convertible
into equity to QIBs for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs.550 cr. at a share price of Rs.6396 per share as per SEBI
guidelines. The company is raising funds for expansion/ upgradation/ modernisation/ diversification etc. as there are
opportunities to grow inorganically through buyouts and acquisitions in India & abroad. This development indicates big
plans ahead. Long-term investors can continue to hold this stock.
* PG Foils (Rs.62.40) has earned an EPS of Rs.7.5 for the first nine months of FY08. Full year EPS is expected to go up to
Rs.11/12. The stock has reacted from high of Rs.127 to Rs.66 level where it looks attractive for investment as the book
value of the company is around Rs.70. Stay invested as the company is expected to do well over the next few years.
* Net profit of Mather & Platt Pumps (Rs.168.85) rose 94.40% to Rs.5.21 cr. in QE31/12/07 as against Rs.2.68 cr. during
QE31/12/06. Sales rose 59.78% to Rs.67.09 cr. in QE31/12/07 as against Rs.41.99 cr. during QE31/12/06. The company is
mainly into water pumps while KSB Pumps is into industrial pumps.
The company has a very strong order position of around Rs.200 cr. and we may see a good trend over the next few years.
At reaction around Rs.1450/150, it is good long-term buy for investment.
* If the first nine months profits of Pratibha Industry (Rs.329.15) working is any indication, the company may report full
year EPS of Rs.20 in FY08. Its SAW pipes unit is also expected to contribute good profits from next year onwards. The
stock has reacted from a high of Rs.480. Reliance Mutual Fund has good exposure in this stock. Add at current levels for
good long-term growth.
* Khoday India (Rs.229.70) has called for a meeting for acquisition of the entire paid-up share capital of M/s. Khoday
Properties Pvt. Ltd. belonging to the Khoday Group. This seems to be good development. Its December'07 quarter results
are also encouraging. Stay invested.
* Prime Textiles (Rs.60.35) - Investors who booked profits above Rs.90 level can think of accumulating this stock in this
fall around Rs.55 level with long-term view as the company has good development plans.
* Because of recession fears in the USA, there is lot of scare in the Indian market. But investors should know that
recessions in USA market have never lasted long.
* Alumeco's (Rs.23.30) December'07 quarterly results are not encouraging as the company has reduced its credit.
Accordingly, production & sales were reduced. This will reflect in the March'08 quarter too but the long-term outlook is
encouraging. If the stock reacts to Rs.18/20 level, it can be bought with a long-term view.
* Grauer & Weil (Rs.116.20) reacted from a high of Rs.220 to the current levels of Rs.116. Investors are advised to take
advantage of this reaction by buying at current levels for good long-term growth.
* Hind Dorr Oliver (Rs.145.35), Gammon India (Rs.490.10) and Indian Hume Pipe (Rs.762.95) are other good stocks
where investors can invest at current levels.
By V. H. Dave
EXPERT EYE
Panama Petrochem Ltd. (PPL) (Code: 524820) (Rs.175.30) is a leader in the speciality oil industry, which is likely to grow
along with the economy. The rising demand from user industries like mining, telecom, power, textiles, pharmaceuticals
and cosmetic, is likely to drive the demand for PPL's products in the long term. PPL is foraying into high growth and
high margins products like mining oil, transformer oil and cable jelly oil, which is likely to drive the top line and bottom
line growth for FY08E-FY10E.
PPL supplies its specialty oil products to wide range of industries including pharmaceuticals, ink, cosmetics, textiles,
power and will very soon foray into telecom and mining which are high growth industries.
PPL is currently manufactures ink & rubber oil, coning oil, lubricating oil, petroleum jelly, paraffin wax and transformer
oil. Currently transformer oil contributes a small part (2% of total revenue) of the revenue. Ink and rubber oil segments
contribute 48% of the total revenue. It already supplies its products to leading global players like Micro Inks (global
leader in inks), Sakata Inks, Bayer Cropscience, E Merck etc and has proved the capabilities and strengths of its product
portfolio.
13
PPL's product portfolio is also supported by a strong R&D back-up through which it plans to introduce new products in
specialty oils like mining oil, cable jelly and transformer oil segments. It expects to earn higher margins on these products
as most of them are import substitutes, high growth and monopoly/oligopolistic products.
During FY07, sales advanced by 80% to Rs.197 cr., net profit by 60% to Rs.10.5 cr. During Q3FY08, sales grew by 29% to
Rs.73 cr. but net profit was up by 45% to Rs.5 cr. During the first three quarters of FY08, although sales surged by 29% to
Rs.177 cr., net profit shot up by 59% to Rs.8.5 cr.
PPL's equity capital is Rs.4.3 cr. and with the reserves of Rs.26.2 cr. the book value of its share is Rs.71. The promoters
hold 42.5% in the equity, NRIs hold 3.3%, PCBs hold 6%, leaving 46.2% with the investing public.
PPL plans to set up a new facility in Uttarakhand with an installed capacity of 90,000 MT by March 2009. With the
Uttarakhand plant, its total installed capacity would go up by 178% to 159,000 MTPA compared to 57,000 MTPA in FY07.
Currently, PPL operates at approximately 80-85% capacity and plans to manufacture new products once the new capacity
comes into place.
Since the economy is growing by 8-9%, a PPL would be beneficiary of the rising demand from these industries.
PPL's traditional products like ink oil and coning oil may grow at a CAGR of 20% and 50% respectively over the next two
fiscals and its new products like mining oil, transformer oil and cable jelly oil would contribute approximately 6-12% each
to FY10E net revenue. Given the heavy investments in industries like mining, power and telecom industries we believe
PPL would be an indirect beneficiary of these investments.
During FY08, sales are expected to touch Rs.250 cr. with a net profit going up to Rs.16 cr., which would give an EPS of
Rs.37. The PPL share currently trades at Rs.175.30 at a P/E of 4.6 on FY08E and is recommended for medium-to-long-term
with a target price of Rs.225, which would give about 33% return. The 52-week high and the low of the share has been
Rs.270/116.
*****
Numeric Power Systems Ltd. (NPSL) (Code: ) (Rs.695.50) has posted excellent results for Q3FY08, which went unnoticed
by the market. An analyst tracking the
company expects an EPS of Rs.85 in FY08
and Rs.100 in FY10. Applying a reasonable
P/E of 12, the share price is likely to cross
the Rs.1020 mark in the medium-term and
Rs.1200 in the long-term. Incidentally, the
share had touched 52-week high of Rs.1199
on 7
th
January 2008.
14
Incorporated in 1994, NPSL has emerged as
an Indian multi-national with seven
manufacturing
facilities
in
India
(Pondicherry, Chennai and Parwanoo) &
Sri Lanka supported by its subsidiaries in
Singapore, Mauritius and partner offices in
USA and UK. A corporate house with
established nationwide presence, NPSL is
the single largest source for a wide range of
uninterrupted
power
supply
(UPS)
systems. Numeric Lanka Technologies Pvt.
Ltd., Sri Lanka, Numeric Power Systems
Pte. Ltd., Singapore and Numeric Power
Systems (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd., Mauritius are
its subsidiaries of NPSL.
The company manufactures UPS systems,
Constant Voltage Constant Frequency
Systems, AC-DC Converters, C-DC
Converters,
AC
Drives,
Inverters,
Stabilisers,
Custom
Built
Power
Conditioners and Isolation Transformers.
April – June 2007
EBG Quarterly Performance:
100% once again
During April – June 2007, which is the third quarter of the fourth year of
'Early Bird Gains' (EBG) – the investment newsletter that spots multi-
baggers, it has scored 100% success with all 15 recommendations
recording an appreciation.
EBG has, therefore, consistently, maintained quality while the bonus
issues in excess of 30% highlight the confidence of its recommendations.
Scrip
Buy
Price
Highest
price since
recom.
Issue
Dated
Growth
%
04/04/07
Panama Petrochem
129.00
270
109
11/04/07
Rolta India
335.90
780
132
18/04/07
NPSL has a tie-up with the world
renowned Merlin Gerin Electronics (MGE)
UPS systems of France. With over 35 years
of experience in the electrical power
Metalman Industries
18.19
47
158
25/04/07
Indag Rubber
31.00
113
264
02/05/07
Paradyne Infotech
116.45
440
279
09/05/07
Pochiraju Inds. Ltd.
22.60
64
183
16/05/07
Asian Oilfield Services
73.95
446
503
23/05/07
Hanung Toys & Textiles
165.50
300
81
23/05/07
XL Telecom & Energy
119.30
595
400
30/05/07
Bharat Gears
73.00
89
22
06/06/07
Kanpur Plastipack
22.75
34
49
13/06/07
Deepak Fertilisers
89.30
178
99
13/06/07
MSP Steel & Power Ltd.
19.15
89
365
20/06/07
Bihar Tubes Ltd.
103.65
222
114
27/06/07
Astral Poly Technik Ltd.
105.00
235
123
EBG for sure profits
industry and active presence in more than 100 countries and over 3000 employees around the world, MGE has 5
manufacturing facilities (two in France, one in USA and two in Asia) and 2 R&D centres (one in Europe and one in USA).
Its products find application in various segments including information technology, telecom, software, healthcare, banks
& financial institutions, government projects and small-scale industries.
NPSL is a national distributor for SLA batteries manufactured by Panasonic Industrial Asia Pte. Ltd. (a member of
Panasonic - Japan). This distribution arrangement between NPSL and Panasonic offer the complete range of Panasonic
high performance SLA batteries to the Indian market through their appointed channel partners.
Its joint venture company, Socomec-Numeric UPS Pvt. Ltd., (50:50) will undertake marketing, distribution and retailing of
Socomec brand of UPS systems (more than 10 KVA) with three phase input and three phase output and related
accessories across India. Socomec has sought approval from the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) for investing
$1.5 million over the next two years into the JV and pick up 50% equity stake.
During FY07, consolidated sales surged by 20% to Rs.290 cr. and net profit by 21% to Rs.21 cr. yielding an EPS of Rs.42.
During Q3FY08, on a standalone basis, sales have gone up by 69% to Rs.10.6 cr. on 43% higher sales of Rs.100 cr. During
the first 9 months of FY08, while sales have gone up by 47% to Rs.278 cr., net profit has shot up by 86% to Rs.30 cr. The
consolidated results for the 9 months are not available as NPSL declares them at the end of the year.
With its focus on quality and cost control, NPSL lays emphasis on process improvements, on raw materials, improvised
manufacturing techniques, technical support activities managed through computer networks and gradually make NPSL
debt-free.
NPSL's tiny equity capital of Rs.5 cr. is supported by huge reserves of Rs.102 cr., which gives the share a book value of
Rs.214, making it a bonus candidate. Its debt-equity ratio is 0.17:1 and the value of its gross block stood at Rs.34 cr. as on
31
st
March 2007. The promoters hold 63% in its equity capital, mutual funds hold 7%, PCBs 5.5% leaving 24.5% with the
investing public.
NPSL has a dominant position in the UPS segment and has clients such as Intel, Infosys and Veritas. Given India's
significant power deficits and the ubiquitous outages and voltage fluctuations offer significant market potential for NPSL
products in the country.
NPSL has already implemented an auxiliary power systems as a turnkey effort involving design, supply and installation
of total power conditioning systems project for Power Grid Corporation in the north-eastern States. With this, NPSL has
elevated itself to an integrated player in power protection systems. This may well act as a referral for more such projects
in future. NPSL plans to expand its overseas operations by setting up an UPS assembling facility in Mauritius.
Given its sustained topline growth, effective cost-rationalisation measures, its capability for executing total turnkey power
conditioning systems and its profitable subsidiaries provide NPSL's potential earning visibility in coming years.
During FY08, its consolidated sales are expected to go up to Rs.400 cr. with net profit to Rs.42.5 cr., which would yield an
EPS of Rs.85. During FY09, sales are expected to touch Rs.500 cr. with net profit of Rs.50 cr. and the EPS would touch
Rs.100. NPSL's tiny equity, sound financials, sustained strong performance and hefty book value are the well-built
pointers towards a liberal bonus this year.
The NPSL share is currently traded at Rs.695.50 discounting its consolidated earning of Rs.85 for FY08 and Rs.100 for
FY09 at a P/E of just 8.2 and 7 times respectively. The industry average P/E of the electronics industry in which NPSL
operates currently rules firm at 30 leaving good scope for the share to rise. With a reasonable P/E of 12, the share has all
the potential to touch Rs.1020 in the medium-term and Rs.1200 in the long-term. The 52-week high/low of the share has
been Rs.1199/297.
15
By Nayan Patel
TECHNO FUNDA
Sensex has again closed above 18000 and may go up to 18900 before the
Budget. Till the Budget, one can take small exposure in buying & selling
and bigger exposure after the Budget.
Prime Property Development Corporation
BSE Code: 530695
Last Close: Rs.116.45
This stock will give good returns in coming days. Prime Property
Development is a Mumbai based construction and real estate development company and is the cheapest stock in its
segment. It has an equity base of just Rs.10 cr. with a face value of Rs.5 per share and declared 50% dividend last year. The
company has shown fantastic results this year. Net profit jumped 82.27% to Rs.17.48 cr. in the first nine months. In
December 2007 quarter, net sales jumped 330.74% while net profit jumped 1826.67% to Rs.5.78 cr. Company has shown
EPS of Rs.8.75 for the first nine months and may post an EPS of Rs.12 for FY08 against which the stock is available at a
P/E ratio of just 10.
Review
Last week, we had recommended Hydro S&S
at Rs.59. But when most small cap stocks
slipped heavily last week, Hydro S&S closed
Rs.57.85 ex-dividend (5% dividend). It is a
good bet for investment. Stay invested.
Weekly chart indicates that the stock is ready for a big run. Buy with a short-term stop loss of Rs.110 and long-term stop
loss of Rs.102. On the upper side, it can go up to Rs.126 and crossover will take it to Rs.143. Stock can cross its all time
high of Rs.187 level in the next 6-9 months.
KEW Industries
BSE Code: 532758
Last Close: Rs.33.70
Last time, we recommended this stock around Rs.35. Thereafter, it shot up to Rs.66. But again in the panic, it is available
at dirt cheap. This Jalandhar based auto ancillaries company supplies cables to auto companies, railways and defence. It
has an equity base of Rs.13.53 cr. and has recorded 24.99% growth in sales in the first nine months. For FY07, it posted
Rs.3.71 cr. profit in 12 months but this it achieved Rs.4.33 cr. profit in the first nine months only. It is in talks with M&M
and JCB for supply of various products for their vehicles.
Technically, the stock is looking good. Buy with stop loss of Rs.28. On the upper side, it can go up to Rs.37.50 and
crossover will take it to Rs.41. Stock can go up to Rs.51 in next 3-4 months and Rs.66 in the next 7-9 months.
V-Guard Industries IPO pens on 18
th
February
V-Guard Industries Ltd., a Kerala based company manufacturing and marketing electrical and electronic products, is
entering the capital market with an IPO of 80,00,000 equity shares of Rs.10 each through the book building route in the
price band of Rs.80 to Rs.85 per share.
The company outsources products from SSI units/small manufacturers across South India contracts third parties for the
manufacture of Voltage Stabilizers, Pumps, UPS, Electric Water Heaters and Electric Fans, which are manufactured to the
company's specifications. Most of these units are attached to Charitable Institutions/Social welfare organizations. By this
arrangement, it is able to attain a social objective of generating maximum employment to women and rural unemployed.
The capital raised from the issue will be deployed to set up Cable manufacturing facilities in Coimbatore and Uttaranchal,
an Enameling Plant at Coimbatore, Development and Pilot Productions Plants for water Heaters, Fans and Pumps at
Himachal Pradesh and Coimbatore, Service and Distribution Centres at Bangalore, Hubli and Vijaywada.
For FY07, V-Guard's total turnover was
Rs.222.27 cr. with PAT of Rs.13.5 cr.
CRISIL has assigned a CRISIL IPO Grade 3/5
to the proposed IPO indicating its average
fundamentals and the issue will be listed on
the BSE and NSE.
Speciality Papers improves
Speciality Papers Ltd. has posted total income
of Rs.14.53 cr. for Q3FY08 against Rs.142.22 cr.
in Q3FY07 and net profit rose to Rs.55.43 lakh
from Rs.52.91 lakh for the same quarter last
year.
For the nine months period ended on 31
st
December'07, the total income was up by 41%
at Rs.39.55 cr. as compared to Rs.28.13 cr. for
the same period last year. Profit before tax was up by 20% at Rs.141.79 lakh from Rs.118.06 lakh for the same period last
year. Net profit was up by 22% at Rs.131.24 lakh from Rs.107.22 lakh for the same period last year.
Shiva Cement net up
Shiva Cement registered a growth of 25% in the total income from Rs.20.74 cr. in Q3FY07 to Rs.26.02 cr. in Q3FY08. The
EBIDTA for the 9 months increased 270% from Rs.2.79 cr. to Rs.7.55 cr. and PAT increased to 670% from Rs.77.6 lakh to
Rs.5.15 cr.
The company's expansion programme at a cost of Rs.225 cr. is likely to go up due to enhancement of project size as
suggested by ACC's technical wing.
Satra Properties improves
Satra Properties (India) Ltd., a leading developer of real estate and malls, has recorded encouraging Q3FY08 with
consolidated income of Rs.72.60 cr. and net income of Rs.17.89 cr. The EPS for the quarter was Rs.1.15.
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16
For the nine months period ended 31
st
December 2007, income from real estate activities was 350% higher at Rs.146.74 cr.
compared to Rs.32.60 cr. in the previous corresponding period. PAT was up 820% at Rs.34.03 cr. as compared to Rs.3.70
cr. for the same period last year. Consolidated EPS for the same period was Rs.2.26.
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources
that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does
not accept any liability for the use of this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell
securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his
acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
17
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