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Monday, October 08, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Why Indian stocks will crash in October?

Monday, October 8, 2007

Why Indian stocks will crash in October?

 

Most of the investors and analysts are unable to cope with this

unbelievable rise in Indian stocks especially capital goods and power

stocks. Foreign investors and big financial institutions invested

heavily in these stocks when markets were crashed in August but many

retail investors missed to capitalize this rally. FIIs discounted all

the negative news and poured money into Indian stocks after Fed rate

cut in September. But will this euphoria last forever?

 

Why Indian stock markets will crash in October?

1. Political Instability: This is the single most major reason for

stock market crash. Investors especially FIIs never like political

instability and they will book profits and go to another country. Even

though political turmoil will have no significant impact on the growth

of companies, stock markets always negatively respond to political

instability.

 

2. RBI decision: Don't expect positive news from RBI. Don't be fooled

by inflation data which is released on every Friday. You will know

real inflation in the routine life. No government will allow raising

inflation by cutting interest rate cut just before elections. RBI will

definitely raise CRR and is major negative news for markets.

 

3. Negative news: When markets rose too high within a short span,

single negative news will create havoc in stock markets. Markets

discounted negative news like Crude rise, rupee appreciation,

inflation concerns in U.S after fed rate cut and slow down in economic

growth etc. How long investors will discount all these negative news?

 

4. Government policies: If mid-term polls are inevitable, Government

prefers people over companies. Popular policies will slow down

momentum which will negatively impact investors sentiment towards

India.

 

5. Foreign Investors (FIIs): FIIs were major culprits for August crash

and are going to be responsible for October crash. Just see and learn

how they are cashing money from every rise?

 

6. Economic growth: There is a slow down in economic growth if you see

the data but markets already discounted 2008-09 earnings especially

for high growth sectors like power and capital goods.

 

7. Profit booking: Shrewd investor always book profits just before

every crash whether it is in 2000 or 2006. Greedy investors always

lose money in every crash. Decide yourself whether you are greedy or

not?

 

8. US markets: US fed rate cut created euphoria among investors but

this will actually show negative impact on the long term on credit

crisis. It treated chronic disease in acute manner. Instead of curing

root causes of credit concerns, it went in superficial manner which

will cause inflation pressure in America and severely impact economy.

 

Stock markets will continue to surprise us as they no longer represent

a country's economy. Markets are in the grip of few investors who can

manipulate stock prices according to their will. Why Reliance rose

above 2,400, can anyone explain me? Can anyone explain me the changes

in Indian economy from August to September?

 

Closely watch Q2 results and movements of political parties and take a

quick decision. This exceptional rise is no way responsible to economy

and next crash will not be due to economy. It is better for retail

investors to book profits and watch the unfolding scenes to enter the

next rally. But I still believe in long term Indian story but not

Foreign investors.

 


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Regards

BigGains !!
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