Apologies if my post was mis-undestood as a rant against anyone. It was not. What I was trying to say is that (especially to newbie's) was that success is not as easy as me or anyone else writing here. If success in markets was easy, there would be no reason for anyone to work elsewhere. Everyone would just trade and be happy. Unfortunately, that is nothing more than a fairy tale.
One does not have to take my word for it. Ask your broker or any person fully involved in the market about how his trading is and chances are that he will say Great / Good than anything else. If he is really trading great, the next question to be asked is, Why should he be working when he can make all the money he needs by just trading.
I really do not know the reason behind my own posting. I have not participated to the extent others have and could have just kept quiet just like many other members. But I thought of posting since I felt that somewhere among the posts, between the lines, it was beggining to make trading seem as easy as 1-2-3 which I felt conveyed the wrong opinion. This field is actually more tough than any other field of business since multiple things including our own psychology is involved and every mistake can result in huge losses.
Maybe I have seen too many loosers and hence am wary of anything that sounds like easy money. I believe guys who read / particpate here are much better off as they are here to learn compared to the vast majority of traders outside many of whom show no inclination to learn.
With regard to Seniors not posting, I believe its a normal process People either quit something that they are doing or move to better / higher things. I myself do not post as much as earlier since there are many other persons who are sharing more than I can do. I have seen the same happen in the Amibroker group as well as other mainline forums / groups.
Many members mistake my opinion with regard to my also being a moderator of the group. What I say here is my own personal views and nothing to do with my also being the moderator. To avoid any sort of conflict of interest have enabled as many persons as possible (those who write on forum) to non-moderated basis so as to ensure free flow of thoughts.
Cheers
Prashanth
----- Original Message -----From: AbhijitSent: Sunday, November 29, 2009 23:37 PMSubject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Information overload & Random thoughts
Please also go through some of my posts..I have said so many times...there is no person in this world who is a know all !That last line, by the way, was meant for Prashanth and other 'oldies', and not you. (I had asked you guys to go through the posts right from the birth of TI..and you will find so many stalwarts there, but hardly anyone posts...how many of you went through those posts in the last 2 days?You people are refusing to understand my point - learn from practical experiences of others (old posts) and not text book stuff.AP----- Original Message -----From: FLOYD JOHNY LEWISSent: Sunday, November 29, 2009 11:24 PMSubject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Information overload & Random thoughts
--- On Sun, 11/29/09, Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Information overload & Random thoughts
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups. com
Date: Sunday, November 29, 2009, 12:30 PM
The newbies need to think, why in spite of my caution, it was me who has posted 2 trading strateies over the last 10 days - actual trading strategies, and not just text book stuff. (I know someone who made a huge profit in Suzlon futures and he thanked me personally after booking profits - I told him to book at 78...long from 64 I think - in futures).If you wish to let me be just a bystander, knowing fully well what repurcussions it will have, then so be it.....it is like the teenage kids nowadays (those who have teenage kids will appreaciate) - no matter what you advise, they will do what they want.So keep on posting tons of material, and at the end of a few weeks, few months, please do not end up where you are now.When Pankaj and me said we have gone through all this, it has some meaning guys.In the last 10 days, from my memory, following are the strategies that have been posted:MA crossover, OOPs, 200 E to S crossover, MACD, Stochastics, ADX, RSI, 12range bar, and some more.Tell me honestly, when the market opens tomorrow---- which one are you going to use?????? All will give profits some times, all will give losses some times.Finally it is your temparament and money management that will save you, and not ONE strategy.Have you ever wondered why other seniors have not posted anything and why TI has become almost a 'newbies' forum now???AP----- Original Message -----From: PrashanthSent: Sunday, November 29, 2009 9:28 PMSubject: [Technical-Investor ] Information overload & Random thoughtsHello,This month has been a record of sorts in this group. For November (which is still to end), we currently are having the largest amount of mail sent in any month from the start of this group. Thankfully, most if not all messages are worth the read and hence the overload is bearable to a extent.I see a lot of interest in reading books, checking out seminars, etc. That is all the more wonderful since there is a huge amount of knowledge that can be used out there. But as AP rightly said, reading everything without focus just because its available out there (and for free) can actually hinder a person rather than helping him grow.Based on my own perception, to newbie's and even experienced guys, it may seem that one is comparatively not well acquainted and worse taken at face value (both here and elsewhere), everyone seems to be successful while one is not so successful. While there are and will indeed be few successful traders, its important to understand what success means from their own viewpoint rather than assuming success to be able to make lots and lots of money.Success in markets can be very subjective. A person who has a full time job and in addition trades / invests in the market may feel that he is successful if he can make around 20 - 25% a year. For a full time trader / investor, such returns are not even considered since they have a much higher satisfaction level.Being in the markets for over a decade, I can say one thing with Guarantee, not many offer to say the truth. Ask any one in the market and all of them seem successful which is theoretically improbable. A Investor may find success in few stocks, but conveniently forgets the larger number of duds he holds. A trader on the other hand showcases specific instances of success while at the same time not exactly pointing out that using the same strategy he also has had pretty had months.There is no holy grail in the markets that work and catch all trends. On Friday, we had a massive move of around 100 point on downside from open and then a further 150 points on the upside. No such strategy will exist that can potentially catch both the ways. If one focuses on eating everything, the only thing that will be eaten is the trader's capital.Statistics says that around 75 - 85% of options expire worthless. In the series of November 09 for example, on a approximate calc basis, at end of trading on Thursday, 90% of options were worth Rs.5 or less (and hence all the options can be assumed to have expired worthless). This does not have to mean that selling options is a better option. Infact, if you are not having sound knowledge of both TA and option theory, selling options carries more risk than buying options.Persons like AP, Vish among others are very experienced professionals and thus while it may seem that trading options is very easy, please do understand that such performance is because of huge amount of experience that they have had over the years.For anyone starting off in the Investment world, please do note that many members here who contribute liberally are established players. While it will be worth observing them and asking them questions, trying to copy their record is a sure recipe for disaster. Its would be something like a person who just having seen a doctor perform a easy surgery think that surgery is easy and try the same without grasping the details and the experience the doctor possesses before he has ventured into surgery.I have seen too many cases of financial ruin and hence I believe in being conservative when approached by newbie's. The idea is to first survive in the markets, you can always thrive when you are really ready.Cheers & Happy TradingPrashanth
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