Sensex

Friday, November 27, 2009

Re: [Technical-Investor] Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy

Hi all,

Anybody has a proper short call with proper sl......................... and tgt ......... time may be say 5-8 months... for tgt ???????? anything like that...... later we will know is it the gold really bullish or bearish......

Regards,
Ganesh

--- On Sat, 28/11/09, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@gmail.com> wrote:

From: KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, 28 November, 2009, 5:52 AM

Game is on......You do have a habit of picking things apart and dissecting it.  This must be your game to prove your point.  This is a forum to make money, not to be right or wrong.   The means is not the end here.  But, I like people who are awake to challenges.

Gold and Oil are not being compared to equate them.  They are being compared as two commodities that rose up on speculation and Gold is joining the party as if it is equal to Oil around $110-$130......That is all.  Don't take it literally.  So, don't be an analyst about everything.  Macro levels are good enough, and that all the below says. 

If people are going to buy gold at $3000, we shall see the demand coming from people pulling money by selling their flats.  You know the future as much as I do, so I would say that real estate will crash, and gold will go up......How's that for a bogus argument saying consumers will buy at $3000 per ounce!  Keyboard worked well this time#  Market is topping now to give you much more satisfaction, since you wanted it to go down, and you want gold to go up.  With your silver move today, you are talking ONE SIDED.  Market is not about what you want, it is reacting to what it does, and then it does something different.  I'm holding gold coins and silver coins from the time gold was $292, $366, $419 and $450.  I am a bigger believer in Gold than most people, but I will be holding it for longer than most people on this forum.  Bought MS62/MS63 coins in Feb'2008, and if it goes down again, I will buy more of the same 'rare' coins. 

Open mind is someone who listens to the views, does not strectch their hands out and publicly say "Yawn, I'm bored".  You could not handle the Guppy article or Balaji's comments multiple times, and I thought enough is enough.  Keep your mind OPEN to BOTH SIDES, and if there are support articles to why BSE should go to 30K or Gold to $500, so be it.  Read it, or Delete it or just Ignore it.  Don't sent out a message, I'm bored.  Since that does makes you suitable for some other forums where people hit others with arrows and swear. 

So, markets have a bit more to run - Keep the patience.  We are shopping like crazy in the US, and showing that money is still in the pockets of lots of people.  Economy will falter in Jan-Mar or Jan-Jun.  Gold will have a field day, but for now, it has to cool off, if it wants to go higher.  Otherwise, it is rising exponentially, and what Guppy said will happen.  I have too much profits on Gold to lose (Rs10L+ of profits investing in Indian ETFs, which is apart from my physicial holding here), to get carried away with yawns, or arguments. 

Lets make money, and use our energy to not say who is right and who is wrong, but to fill the wallets......That is my purpose here on this forum.  The day it is not satisfied as a primary objective, you will not hear from me on this forum.  Of course, I am always willing to help someone new who is asking questions, and thankful to people posting ideas/thoughts/articles, since we have a wide range of investors on this board, as well as others. 

KKP




Sniper Trader wrote:
 

Ok my sleep is gone now.


Lets pick your argument apart 

All that happened in Oil last year is not enough to teach some folks a lesson...... $200 Oil!!!!!!   There will not be any cars on US Highways.  Same way, who is going to buy gold for any useful purpose at $3000 per ounce.

If you are equating gold with oil.. you are sadly mistaken. Gold is a store of wealth..oil isnt.
Oil is a commodity and thats what it will be. Also, gold has a longer history  than oil when it comes to its use. Hit the history books! Do you want a few.. i can name them.

Same way, who is going to buy gold for any useful purpose at $3000 per ounce.
Central banks for starters.... and not to forget the demand from gold consumers (India/China etc)
The USEFUL PURPOSE is store of wealth. Curious..how would you define USEFUL PURPOSE anyways ?

Things need to be an orderly move, and that is all Guppy and others are trying to prove.  
Oh ya ? Really ? What about the rise in the equity mkts.. are they orderly ? Shouldn't one be calling for a top there? Hey, i am using the same logic.


Bud, this is a forum where someone posts what Mr Guppy thought, and instead of keeping an open mind about the topping pattern, you are telling us you are bored.  

The way i would define open mind is - One has to be open to both sides of the argument. So, i am bored...you seem not be to OPEN to that idea... Am i missing something here?

No one has seen the exactness of the future, but we are all trying hard to paint it (foggily).  
Precisely my point

Sorry, if you don't like the above, but, if you can't say anything valuable, learn to use the 'delete' key.  Hope you still kept that one on the keyboard, and did'nt chew it out in your boredom!!!!! 

You see, i have a open mind unlike some others. I just learnt how to use the delete key thanks. While on learning...i would suggest that typing in 5 exclamation  marks do not emphasize  your point anymore than it would have ...if you used just one. Or maybe its someone  else's keyboard that is faulty?

Are you game yet?



On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 9:02 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@ gmail.com> wrote:
Wow Sniper, you need stimulating debates every hour/day.... ..You should join Moneycontrol. com debates.  You will get plenty of replies from there, some good and some not so good.  But, it will keep you going.  All that happened in Oil last year is not enough to teach some folks a lesson...... $200 Oil!!!!!!   There will not be any cars on US Highways.  Same way, who is going to buy gold for any useful purpose at $3000 per ounce.  Things need to be an orderly move, and that is all Guppy and others are trying to prove. 

Bud, this is a forum where someone posts what Mr Guppy thought, and instead of keeping an open mind about the topping pattern, you are telling us you are bored. 

Well, what do you think I am doing......Getting bored to reply to your no-content and single sided messages about Topping in Dow, S&P, US going down etc.  But, we don't ask for more stimulating messages from you.  We read, understand and appreciate that it is your view and keep going to see who is right and how right is he/she.  No one has seen the exactness of the future, but we are all trying hard to paint it (foggily). 

So, go back to sleep until you see an exciting title, or ignore this title and ask a few loaded questions about "Why did the couple enter the party with the President of India, and join the debate".  You and hundreds of blogs can have a field day 'speculating'. 

Sorry, if you don't like the above, but, if you can't say anything valuable, learn to use the 'delete' key.  Hope you still kept that one on the keyboard, and did'nt chew it out in your boredom!!!!!

Balaji, keep posting articles.... ..I love what Guppy does and have to say, since I follow his 'MA Band' methodology very closely and trade off it. 

KKP

Sniper Trader wrote:
 

No.. i was wide and awake till i read this thread.

I will revisit this thread after x days.. and  i m sure i will be still hearing about bubbles/moon shots and busts in gold.

I will tell you what is overbought - S&P/Dow. Have you taken a close at it lately ?

Yes,,, i m still yawing.. throw me some good stuff we can debate on...which ignites my interest.

PS: Yes.. i did buy some silver at lower levels yday.

On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 7:52 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@ gmail.com> wrote:
Sniper Trader, you must have made too many trades last night on Forex and are still sleepy from you big yawns......Look at the OB condition on any chart in Gold.  That is what we are talking about and doing a bit of anticipatory thoughts.  Anticipatory thoughts by technicians are a bit dangerous, but we can always put in terms of the curling factor coming from W%R, RSI, MFI and Fast-Stoc. 

You might be anticipating Pluto and don't like us talking about the Moon for Gold.  Let us know! 

KKP
Sniper Trader wrote:
 

Yawnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnn...... ......... ......



Is there anything new ppl can contribute.. .besides talking about moon and bubble when it comes to gold ?


On Sat, Nov 28, 2009 at 1:52 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@ gmail.com> wrote:
Thanks Balaji for the 'warning shot'.  I feel that anytime there is movement that is going on with a single sided direction, like in Gold, it is worth considering a 'sell' as opposed to a buy.  Keep the finger on the Sell Trigger, and forget the feeling of left out for now.  We are somewhere in the neighborhood of Jul'07 to Jan'08 timeframe of the Equity market when it comes to the Gold market.  This does not mean I am forecasting a crash, but a definite correction so that we can indeed go to $2000+   So, S.T. it is topping, and LT it is Bullish.  Picture abhi baaki hai, dosto!!!!!!

Now, in my mind it is not a final sell signal since some of the euphoric movement has not technically happened, but it is very close.  I would venture to say that we will see that in my broad time frame of 1 month (by end of this year) to Jun'2010.  I have a large amount of physical and logical gold holding and keeping a very close eye on it since I do not want my Rs10L+ of profits to vanish in a few days, but I truly feel that the complexity of US Economic results + $ Index (relative to many currencies and DXY) + Inflationary pressures in hot economies + Demand/Supply of Gold/Silver + Special events (Dubai, 9/11 etc) + IndoChina Purchases (IMF + Public) + Next move by China on Yuan (or announcement thereof) has/can/will affect the gold.  There is speculation factor already in it, like we had with Oil from $110>$147, but, one final CNBC reported story of Gold going to $3000 will call it final Top and then a good size correction. 

When that correction comes, the people who feel left out (for personal, professional, family based reasons) should get into gold.  Hold a small single digit % of your portfolio in gold ALL the time.  We are Indians (for the most part this has been true on this forum), and therefore, holding an asset like this is critical to our mental satisfaction. 

For those in the US, please checkout BullionVault since they are giving 1 gram free to get the account started (sure it is small, but FREE GOLD is something that attracts value shoppers, and today is Black Friday).  Black Friday for non-US folks is a BIG SALE event for us.  This is where you have to literally stand in lines to get the product, and the early bird gets the worm!   I was out there standing in line this morning at 4:30am US time to buy a 1 TeraByte Hard-Disk for $59 and GOT IT.  Also got 50pack DVD-R for $4.98 and 100pack CD-R for $4.98......There were Laptops for $199 and Desktops for $199.  USB 4GB Flashdrives for $4 etc.  Unreal.....Just once a year it happens and anyone who can go, should go.

So, there you have it......More than gold, and much more than you asked for!   Happy Friday to all.

KKP

Balaji Jayaraman wrote:
 

Gold warning signal

 

Yes, we are facing a "parabolic rise"….Gold will not rise to the moon..... It's not the end of the $USD Dollar (wake up people!)

 

A lot of people will GET HURT in Gold by buying @ higher prices, just because everyone else is buying!!!

 

When it will happen, nobody knows…..One thing I know, for sure it's not gonna send me an e-mail before it does gonna Crash for sure!!!

 

As of now there are multiple supports for Gold…

 

Rgds/Balaji

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Krish. Venkatesh
Sent: Friday, November 27, 2009 9:50 PM
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Subject: [Technical-Investor ] Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy

 




Hi All,

Gold Will Collapse Like Oil Did in 2008: By: Daryl Guppy

The gold price has moved quickly and it has developed an important new uptrend characteristic. This so-called 'parabolic' trend is a dangerous type with a high probability of a sudden collapse.

Gold Bars

AP

The original breakout above the psychological resistance level near $1,000 was a breakout from a trading band. Using the trading band the first price target projection was near $1,080. This was achieved quickly.

The same trading and projection method is used to set the next higher target. This target is near $1,160. This target has a high probability it will be achieved.

The breakout above $1,000 started with the characteristics of a rally. The rally has been fulled by a number of reasons: large buying activity of central banks in particular India's Central bank, the decline in the US Dollar, and the anticipation of continued low interest rates in the U.S. among them.

A strong rally breakout typically develops into a sustainable and reliable trend, characterized by retreat and rebound activity within the new up trend development.

However, in the past week, the nature of the rally breakout has changed drammatically. It's no longer a normal uptrend, but best described as a parabolic trend.

The parabolic trend is a curved trend line that captures the acceleration of price. The trend will eventually develop into a vertical line, which is used to define the end of the rising trend.

The characteristic of the parabolic trend is that the trend collapses very rapidly when price moves to the right of the trend line.

The parabolic trend line is divided into three sections:

In the first section the parabolic trend is difficult to recognize. In the second section of the parabolic trend the exit signal is a close below the value of the trend line.

The second section of this parabolic trend is currently developing.

 

The third section of the parabolic trend is more dangerous. Here the exit signal is a move below the value of the parabolic trend  line. Additionally, there is always a time when the price has no choice. Price will automatically move to the right of the trend line and signal the end of the trend.

When this develops, the trend collapses very quickly. The plunge in the oil in 2008 after prices reached $140 was characteristic of this parabolic trend collapse.

 

This is the risk with the gold trend. When the parabolic trend ends the gold price can move quickly towards support at $1,000. Generally the leverage impact with gold producers and explorers is about 3 to 1. This is an advantage when the gold price goes up. When the price falls this leverage works in the opposite direction and causes a substantial and rapid decline in the price of gold producers and explorers.



Thanks and Best Regards,
K.Venkatesh

 




--  Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... ..  KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,  Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism,  They Mature on Optimism, and  Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism,  Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s,  Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and  Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP  ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------  >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when  others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when  the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and  be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new  issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold  bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested  in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested  is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and  expect to do well.   ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -------     Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest.  My ideas are not advice.           


--  Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... ..  KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,  Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism,  They Mature on Optimism, and  Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism,  Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s,  Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and  Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP  ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------  >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when  others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when  the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and  be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new  issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold  bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested  in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested  is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and  expect to do well.   ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -------     Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest.  My ideas are not advice.           


--  Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... ..  KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,  Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism,  They Mature on Optimism, and  Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------ --------- --------- ------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism,  Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s,  Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and  Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP  ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------  >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when  others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when  the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and  be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new  issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold  bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested  in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested  is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and  expect to do well.   ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations. ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -------     Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest.  My ideas are not advice.           


--  Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012.....  KKP Investor ------------ ------------ Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,  Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism,  They Mature on Optimism, and  Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton ------------------------------------ Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism,  Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdowns,  Mature on Eco-Political-Nightmare Talks, and  Die on World-Is-Coming-To-An-End Euphoria - KKP  -----------------------------------------------  >BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when  others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when  the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and  be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new  issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold  bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested  in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested  is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and  expect to do well.   ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justifications. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest.  My ideas are not advice.

The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! Homepage.
Posted by nsivaa at 11:58 PM 0 comments

Re: Fw: [Technical-Investor] oops

 

Dear AP,
 
This is not a OOPS buy according to the literature you had sent out earlier.
For it to qualify as  a buy the last day candle should have opened lower and closed higher than the previous day.
 
Thx-
Kunal.

--- On Sat, 11/28/09, Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com>
Subject: Fw: [Technical-Investor] oops
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, November 28, 2009, 11:06 AM

 
I received this on my personal ID from a member. Since he did not send it to
the group, I will not reveal his identity, however, one request:

Everyone in this world, not just this forum, I repeat everyone in this
WORLD, who does technical analysis, is constantly learning. No one can claim
to be an ultimate expert.

It is like Kinder garten, all the way to Doctorates, and Post doctorates.

However, those who feel they are still in KG, need not be shy / embarrased
to post on this public forum.

I have seen some silly posts on other forums -like----(in panic)...why is
RIL down 50% !!!!!--cannot get sillier than this :)

Any post as long as it is accompanied with a chart, MUST be sent to the
group and not to personal IDs.

Coming to the query --- I do not believe in spoon feeding, and I request the
sender as well as others, to dig out my few posts on OOPS (Suzlon), and I
had mentioned clear rules in it. Please see if this chart satisfies those
rules, and post your findings HERE over the weekend. Everyone has ample time
over the next 2 days to read your replies (I certainly will respond to the
replies).

AP

sir
is it a oops buy for LT
THANKS
REGARDS


__._,_.___
For Forum Rules of Conduct & Disclaimer, please go through

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Technical-Investor/files/!Forum Rules of Conduct.txt
.

__,_._,___
Posted by nsivaa at 11:22 PM 0 comments

Re: [Technical-Investor] options data 2711

 



Floyd,
 
Apologies, it was not in 2003.
 
Maybe later, or maybe not on this forum at all (what a great help I have been!!!).
 
I will make a sincere effort to dig it out on other desktop later this evening (I always use Outlook Express, and the post might be buried somewhere in the thousands of emails in it).
 
However, FOR ALL THOSE WHO JOINED THIS FORUM RECENTLY -----it is worth a look at ALL messages posted on this forum right from day 1. You have to go to the home page ---Messages--Oldest and start reading them one by one.
 
Lots of things to learn, not only about TA, but also human behaviour and other things - you will find a lot of arguments in the past too :D
 
The whole exercise might take 1 full day, but it is worth the time and effort  I feel.
 
Cheers,
 
AP
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 12:19 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] options data 2711

 

Hi AP (Love you dear - millions of flying kisses - )
 
Thanks for the clue.
 
PS: Hi guys this is just out of respect from a student to the guru - dont think otherwise.
 
RIC: - All Newbies & Dear Prashanth: Would seek your help in locating that post of AP. I too would do the needful at my end.
 
Thanks AP - thanks for taking the time.
 
Have a nice weekend
Best Regards
Floyd
 


--- On Sat, 11/28/09, Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] options data 2711
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, November 28, 2009, 1:40 AM

 

Floyd,
 
I had posted a message a few years back on this forum (maybe in 2003 I guess, not sure :D), about how trading in options can be extremely profitable (the momentum trades - not to be mixed with the Greek alphabet).
 
I had explained in detail how one can take a trade and what are the benefits - I had given a live example -  I think the example given was of a trade in HPCL, and one more stock.
 
If you have the time, and can manage to search that old post, please re post it here.
 
I will see if I have it on my computer too.
 
Cheers,
 
AP
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 12:03 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] options data 2711

 
Dear Abhijit
 
"Aap Ka Hukum Sar Ankho Peh"
 
Will definitely follow your advise where trading options is concerned.
 
But you bet i can't burn my fingers or become naked learning about naked options and also doing paper trading on the same until such time as i no longer call myself the so called "NEWBIE".
 
Dear Abhijit - Good Try - my request is still on - Even the oracle of Omaha can't keep me away from my burning desire to learn - then be it options or futures or anything in the field of technical analysis and trading.
 
"For He is He and I am I " - Have no intentions of following in others footsteps - need to leave my own prints even if it takes more time and efforts - do not mind it.
 
PS: Believe you me - i will always be a newbie as long as i am in this profession because that will always keep me, my ego and my emotions in check.
 
Thanks for your concerns
 
Eagerly awaiting your next post giving more details about options and futures to feed our hunger for knowledge and not our ego's.
 
God Bless
Regards
Floyd
 
 


--- On Sat, 11/28/09, Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo. com> wrote:

From: Abhijit <ap19632000@yahoo. com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] options data 2711
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Saturday, November 28, 2009, 1:15 AM

 

Floyd,
 
You have always been calling yourself a newbie.
 
My sincere advice then is to stay thousands of miles away from derivatives. ...Read this.......

Warren Buffet on Derivatives

Following are edited excerpts from the Berkshire Hathaway annual report for 2002.

I view derivatives as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction
 
However, a half-reply to your query - there are 2 ways of using options - to hedge, or, to trade.
 
1. Hedging is done by those who want to keep their position protected from both sides, but they do have a bias (bullish or bearish) - e.g. buying Nifty futures, and selling a 5200 ce. (their profit as well as loss are capped)
 
2. Then there are traders who go naked long or naked short. 
 
One can go long in say Nifty - by either selling puts, or buying calls.
 
Selling options (calls or puts) requires margin equal to that required for a futures contract.
 
Buying options requires a very less amount - e.g. Buying 5100 ce at 90, needs only 50 (lot size) x 90 = Rs. 4500.
 
If Nifty goes to say 5450, this 5100 ce will be trading at, minimum 350 (appreciation from 90 to 350).
 
However, if Nifty does not go up, the trader can either have a stop loss for the premium (say yesterday's low 62, thus losing only 90 - 28, or if he does not follow a SL, the whole amount, i.e. 90.
 
The key here is--the trader knows eaxctly what is the worst possible loss he has to face (Rs. 4500 in the above example).
 
Take a case of a trader who has gone long, by selling a 4700 put at, say 75 (investment - worth 1 lot in futures, far more than buying a ce).
 
If at all, Nifty falls (in spite of Balaji's support:)), and say, goes to 4500, this put will be at least 200, thus giving a loss of 200 -75 (if the trader does not follow a SL). Imagine a scenario where Nifty goes to 4000..the put will be 700!!!! he has to pay up the broker!.
 
The key here is - the trade does not know exactly how much money is at risk.
 
After the election results, when Nifty rose more than 10%, imagine the plight of those who had sold calls (naked) before the results.
 
For those retail traders, who believe in trading in options (naked) - [now don't ask me what is naked!!!!], it is advisable to buy options rather than write (sell).
 
What Vish and I do is ride the momentum based move in any options (I had posted some charts last week), and we do not bother about the Greek alphabets. Any trading system (e.g. Moving avergaes) will work on Options charts as long as there is liquidity.
 
This subject is very vast and what I have mentioned above may not be even 1%.
 
Hence......I repeat--as long as you are a newbie---- STAY AWAY FROM DERIVATIVES.
 
Cheers,
 
AP
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, November 27, 2009 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] options data 2711

 
Hi Vish
 
Thanks for you immediate attention and reply.
 
Couple of Queries:-
 
Though buying calls and shorting puts have the same impact do the FII's indulge in 2 different instruments just as a strategy to deceive the retail investors and achieving their targets without drawing too much attention.
 
I always get confused about - what is the advantage shorting puts when you can achieve the same by buying calls - any particular reason to do so other than what i have stated above.
 
Also, would appreciate if you could explain at your convenience one to one inputs as mentioned in your daily email - for instance how do we interpret figures in brackets and without and so on and so forth. May be simple things but need to understand alphabets before trying to read sentences.
 
I guess by FII's you are referring to the smart money guys - a concept that is adopted for analysis in VSA/VPA form of TA but based on prices here.
 
Fortunately, me too having sharekhans trade tiger thus would hence forth keep an eye on what you have just stated below regarding realtime charts of puts and calls.
 
Also, how do we decide which puts or call range to refer to - is it that if nifty spot is at lets say 4950 we refer to puts and calls for the ranges 5000 as well as 4900 i.e. closest upper and lower ranges.
 
My questions may sound very kidish but would be happy to understand the complete mechanisms of puts and calls and its relationship with the underlying asset etc without off course ending up with Black Sholes model.
 
RIC: Dear Abhijit would sincerely appreciate if you could guide us too until such time as Vish is back in town. With your help and guidance we may be able to spring a surprise on Vish by the 2nd of December by posing intelligent questions based on Vish's OI statistics.
 
Also, any clues for interpreting buy and sell signals on put and call charts in the eg: shared by Vish - "5 mins charts of dec 5000 puts was in buy mode since 25Nov 2009 @93 (1.59pm) gv a sell only today @232 (1.59pm)"
 
RIC: Vish - Bon voyage - have a safe trip. Will definitely miss your statistics during your absence- truly appreciate you sincere efforts.
 
God Bless You Guys for handholding us newbies.
 
Thanks & Best Regards
Floyd
 


--- On Fri, 11/27/09, vish <vichooo_1999@ yahoo.com> wrote:

From: vish <vichooo_1999@ yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] options data 2711
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Friday, November 27, 2009, 10:51 AM

 
Hi Floyd
I am travelling tonight  and will be away till 02 Dec 09. There wont be any updates till 2nd Dec.
Regarding OI interpretation I would like to state the following:
Shorting of Puts and calls require margins like futures. Naturally the big players would engage in such activity as they have money power. Imagine a Fii wants to buy shares for say 500 crores in a day. The guys who are in knowledge of this FII action wud go and buy calls and /or short puts.Even the concerned FII wud buy calls and short puts.
Changes in OI wud tell us what the big guys are doing. This cannot be a leading or sole indicator for our trades. Just an additional information. One shd track intraday movements in OI which we get in trade tiger. The open interest changes at support and resistances will give useful insight. At times, this may give confusing signals too.  Iam also trying to understand the movements in OI with changes in price.
 
I use option charts which I got the idea from Abhijit(ap)  and trading in options is really worth it if you get live data. For eg:
5 mins charts of dec 5000 puts was in buy mode since 25Nov 2009 @93 (1.59pm) gv a sell only today @232 (1.59pm)
cheers
vish

From: FLOYD JOHNY LEWIS <fjl24@yahoo. com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Fri, November 27, 2009 8:14:41 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] options data 2711

 
Hi Vish
 
I know i am burdening you with this request.
 
But would be highly obliged if you could write in details how  one should interpret the info that you so sincerely forward to this group.
 
At the moment we newbies are not able to take full benefit of all your hardwork purely due to lack of knowledge at our end.
 
This request is by me on behalf of all newbies.
 
I personally am not ashamed in admitting that i have no much clues on options and futures as never focused on it till date.
 
But based on intermarket analysis concepts it makes sense for us as future Technical Anaysts and Traders to be aware of what is happening in the immediate surroundings.
 
God Bless you for all your hardwork and efforts for enlightening this group.
 
Thanks in advance
Best Regards
Floyd

--- On Fri, 11/27/09, vish <vichooo_1999@ yahoo.com> wrote:

From: vish <vichooo_1999@ yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] options data 2711
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Friday, November 27, 2009, 9:32 AM

 
Options with increase in OI
Ticker Date/Time close ch in Pr volume Open Int ch in vol ch in OI ch in OI %
PE4800NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 101.25 16.65 11,282,350 4,095,950 8,337,250 1,029,100 33.56
PE4700NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 73.55 14.20 8,623,600 3,125,650 7,281,950 964,300 44.62
CE5000NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 131.80 (13.75) 12,443,600 3,368,350 10,288,500 809,850 31.65
CE4900NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 183.30 (19.45) 6,641,850 2,429,000 6,189,600 616,150 33.99
PE4500NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 40.05 9.10 7,063,500 3,669,900 6,191,100 553,450 17.76
PE4600NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 53.45 11.50 6,464,700 2,382,650 5,498,550 490,650 25.93
CE4800NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 245.00 (22.30) 1,606,950 1,371,150 1,389,500 459,700 50.44
PE4900NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 138.30 23.65 6,209,900 2,881,900 2,262,250 425,550 17.32
PE4200NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 15.85 3.85 1,430,700 1,151,150 1,299,700 350,050 43.70
PE4000NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 8.70 1.30 1,511,150 2,649,950 1,130,000 299,600 12.75
CE5300NIFTY0310 11/27/2009 159.50 (0.50) 263,150 250,050 263,050 249,950 249,950.00
PE4300NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 22.05 5.60 1,867,900 2,319,350 1,401,300 248,100 11.98
PE4100NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 12.05 2.90 1,081,150 800,150 931,550 185,300 30.14
CE5400NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 21.85 (1.45) 1,429,400 2,314,800 (190,200) 184,800 8.68
PE4000NIFTY0110 11/27/2009 24.90 5.15 245,050 550,250 144,000 171,050 45.11
PE4500NIFTY0110 11/27/2009 80.25 16.95 580,250 852,700 95,500 132,200 18.35
PE4400NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 29.60 7.55 2,197,800 1,350,350 1,643,050 108,200 8.71
PE4000NIFTY0310 11/27/2009 65.00 3.30 108,000 232,600 104,750 101,050 76.81
 
wow!  good shorting of puts have taken place at the lows. Its good news for the bulls.
Options with decrease in OI
Ticker Date/Time close ch in Pr volume Open Int ch in vol ch in OI ch in OI % MF 
CE5100NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 90.65 (8.70) 11,271,550 2,941,500 5,969,250 (710,350) (19.45) (64,393,228)
PE5000NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 185.65 28.15 2,877,850 2,883,950 (3,363,750) (522,800) (15.35) (97,057,816)
PE5100NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 243.90 35.05 953,900 1,361,250 (1,395,250) (136,500) (9.11) (33,292,350)
PE5200NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 311.85 42.15 227,850 932,900 (670,550) (46,950) (4.79) (14,641,358)
CE3500NIFTY0611 11/27/2009 1,674.00 (34.30) 25,050 145,200 0 (25,050) (14.71) (41,933,700)
CE4000NIFTY0611 11/27/2009 1,354.10 0.00 25,050 469,950 0 (25,000) (5.05) (33,852,500)
CE5300NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 36.00 (2.75) 2,702,450 1,658,250 823,850 (24,900) (1.48) (896,400)
CE5200NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 59.05 (4.60) 6,304,400 3,015,150 2,254,550 (17,600) (0.58) (1,039,280)
CE5500NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 12.85 0.05 805,650 1,766,400 120,550 (13,200) (0.74) (169,620)
PE4500NIFTY0310 11/27/2009 160.00 15.00 50,650 271,450 45,300 (9,400) (3.35) (1,504,000)
 
Significantly Dec 5100 ce has lost good amount of OI. This indicates profit booking in shorts.
 
Max OI  in nifty options
Nifty Range is now 4800 to 5000  (  changed fr 4900-5100 on Thursday)
 
Ticker Date/Time close ch in Pr volume Open Int ch in vol ch in OI ch in OI %
PE4800NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 101.25 16.65 11,282,350 4,095,950 8,337,250 1,029,100 33.56
PE4500NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 40.05 9.10 7,063,500 3,669,900 6,191,100 553,450 17.76
CE5000NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 131.80 (13.75) 12,443,600 3,368,350 10,288,500 809,850 31.65
PE4700NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 73.55 14.20 8,623,600 3,125,650 7,281,950 964,300 44.62
CE5200NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 59.05 (4.60) 6,304,400 3,015,150 2,254,550 (17,600) (0.58)
CE5100NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 90.65 (8.70) 11,271,550 2,941,500 5,969,250 (710,350) (19.45)
PE5000NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 185.65 28.15 2,877,850 2,883,950 (3,363,750) (522,800) (15.35)
PE4900NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 138.30 23.65 6,209,900 2,881,900 2,262,250 425,550 17.32
PE4000NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 8.70 1.30 1,511,150 2,649,950 1,130,000 299,600 12.75
CE4900NIFTY1209 11/27/2009 183.30 (19.45) 6,641,850 2,429,000 6,189,600 616,150 33.99
 
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 27-Nov-2009.
 
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs.. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 27-Nov-2009 1449.17 2506.35 -1057.18

 
  Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance and MFs on 27-Nov-2009.
 
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 27-Nov-2009 2394.92 1696.25 698.67 
 
DIIs swung into action @lows!

Nifty data since 3/11/2009
 
Ticker Date/Time  high   low   Range   close 
^NSEI 11/3/2009  4,729.85  4,538.50     191.35  4,563.90
^NSEI 11/4/2009  4,717.80  4,565.00     152.80  4,710.80
^NSEI 11/5/2009  4,776.35  4,610.60     165.75  4,765.55
^NSEI 11/6/2009  4,836.20  4,764.85       71.35  4,796.15
^NSEI 11/9/2009  4,905.25  4,789.90     115.35  4,898.40
^NSEI 11/10/2009  4,947.70  4,860.10       87.60  4,881.70
^NSEI 11/11/2009  5,016.70  4,870.05     146.65  5,003.95
^NSEI 11/12/2009  5,014.40  4,924.75       89.65  4,952.65
^NSEI 11/13/2009  5,017.90  4,942.65       75.25  4,998.95
^NSEI 11/16/2009  5,073.20  4,994.00       79.20  5,058.05
^NSEI 11/17/2009  5,074.00  5,010.15       63.85  5,062.25
^NSEI 11/18/2009  5,079.30  5,041.65       37.65  5,054.70
^NSEI 11/19/2009  5,053.45  4,963.70       89.75  4,989.00
^NSEI 11/20/2009  5,063.30  4,932.80     130.50  5,052.45
^NSEI 11/23/2009  5,113.10  5,052.10       61.00  5,103.55
^NSEI 11/24/2009  5,112.85  5,053.50       59.35  5,090.55
^NSEI 11/25/2009  5,138.00  5,078.35       59.65  5,108.15
^NSEI 11/26/2009  5,116.45  4,986.05     130.40  5,005.55
^NSEI 11/27/2009  5,005.05  4,806.70     198.35  4,941..75
 
 
 
Bulls repeated their act of 20/11 but from 4800 levels. If this level is not broken we are on course to a new 52 week high.
 
cheers
vish
From: vish <vichooo_1999@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Thu, November 26, 2009 6:40:26 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] options data 2611

 
Options with increase in OI
 
Ticker Date/Time close ch in Pr volume Open Int ch in vol ch in OI ch in OI % 
CE5100NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 99.35 (54.75) 5,302,300 3,651,850 4,152,550 2,152,650 143..59
CE5200NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 63.65 (41.45) 4,049,850 3,032,750 2,438,950 1,148,150 60.92
CE5000NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 145.55 (68.80) 2,155,100 2,558,500 1,818,650 875,200 51.99
PE5200NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 269.70 85.35 898,400 979,850 707,050 606,250 162.27
PE4800NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 84.60 37.10 2,945,100 3,066,850 1,935,150 601,650 24.41
CE5400NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 23.30 (17.45) 1,619,600 2,130,000 1,122,400 516,600 32.02
CE5300NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 38.75 (28.85) 1,878,600 1,683,150 1,227,200 369,100 28.09
PE4900NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 114.65 47.50 3,947,650 2,456,350 2,763,900 343,350 16.25
PE4500NIFTY0110 11/26/2009 63.30 20.80 484,750 720,500 452,500 320,300 80.03
PE4700NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 59.35 26.00 1,341,650 2,161,350 781,650 270,250 14.29
CE4900NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 202.75 (81..30) 452,250 1,812,850 377,800 264,100 17.05
PE5100NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 208..85 75.70 2,349,150 1,497,750 774,500 260,600 21.06
PE4400NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 22.05 9.15 554,750 1,242,150 428,300 182,750 17.25
PE4600NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 41.95 19.00 966,150 1,892,000 596,650 151,850 8.73
CE5500NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 12.80 (11.00) 685,100 1,779,600 359,700 127,550 7.72
PE5000NIFTY0110 11/26/2009 212.55 63.00 132,000 176,350 97,300 107,800 157.26
 
Good shorting of calls of Dec series. Will 4900 be broken?

Options with decrease in OI
 
Ticker Date/Time close ch in Pr volume Open Int ch in vol ch in OI ch in OI %  MF 
PE5000NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 157.50 62.95 6,241,600 3,406,750 3,968,250 (257,050) (7.02) (40,485,376)
PE3900NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 5.70 0.80 44,350 533,700 30,000 (7,650) (1.41) (43,605)
PE3500NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 3.25 0.55 50,700 1,637,350 (4,200) (3,300) (0.20) (10,725)
PE3800NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 4.60 0.65 18,050 234,000 (500) (3,000) (1.27) (13,800)
CE3000NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 1,984.20 (90..80) 3,450 250,450 2,850 (1,650) (0.65) (3,273,930)
PE3700NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 4...30 0.50 9,650 679,250 2,600 (1,300) (0.19) (5,590)
PE4500NIFTY0611 11/26/2009 415.00 10.00 850 610,150 800 (350) (0.06) (145,250)
PE2100NIFTY0611 11/26/2009 48.50 (5.90) 150 175,750 (100) (100) (0.06) (4,850)
CE2500NIFTY0611 11/26/2009 2,522.60 (113.80) 50 242,700 0 (50) (0.02) (126,130)
CE2800NIFTY1210 11/26/2009 2,229.10 (115.50) 50 350,050 0 (50) (0.01) (111,455)
 
 
Max OI  in nifty options
Nifty Range is now 4900 to 5100  (  changed fr 5000-5200 on Wednesday)
 
 
Ticker Date/Time close ch in Pr volume Open Int ch in vol ch in OI ch in OI % 
CE5100NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 99.35 (54.75) 5,302,300 3,651,850 4,152,550 2,152,650 143.59
PE5000NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 157.50 62.95 6,241,600 3,406,750 3,968,250 (257,050) (7.02)
PE4500NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 30.95 14.05 872,400 3,116,450 536,500 45,850 1.49
PE4800NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 84.60 37.10 2,945,100 3,066,850 1,935,150 601,650 24.41
CE5200NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 63.65 (41.45) 4,049,850 3,032,750 2,438,950 1,148,150 60.92
CE5000NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 145.55 (68.80) 2,155,100 2,558,500 1,818,650 875,200 51.99
PE4900NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 114.65 47.50 3,947,650 2,456,350 2,763,900 343,350 16.25
PE4000NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 7.40 2.05 381,150 2,350,350 200,400 50,800 2.21
PE4700NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 59.35 26.00 1,341,650 2,161,350 781,650 270,250 14.29
CE5400NIFTY1209 11/26/2009 23.30 (17.45) 1,619,600 2,130,000 1,122,400 516,600 32.02
 
 
 
Nifty data since 3/11/2009
 
Ticker Date/Time high low Range close
^NSEI 11/3/2009  4,729.85  4,538.50     191.35  4,563.90
^NSEI 11/4/2009  4,717.80  4,565.00     152.80  4,710.80
^NSEI 11/5/2009  4,776.35  4,610.60     165.75  4,765..55
^NSEI 11/6/2009  4,836.20  4,764.85       71..35  4,796.15
^NSEI 11/9/2009  4,905.25  4,789.90     115.35  4,898.40
^NSEI 11/10/2009  4,947.70  4,860.10       87.60  4,881.70
^NSEI 11/11/2009  5,016..70  4,870.05     146.65  5,003.95
^NSEI 11/12/2009  5,014.40  4,924.75       89.65  4,952.65
^NSEI 11/13/2009  5,017.90  4,942.65       75.25  4,998.95
^NSEI 11/16/2009  5,073.20  4,994.00       79..20  5,058.05
^NSEI 11/17/2009  5,074.00  5,010.15       63.85  5,062.25
^NSEI 11/18/2009  5,079..30  5,041.65       37.65  5,054.70
^NSEI 11/19/2009  5,053.45  4,963.70       89.75  4,989.00
^NSEI 11/20/2009  5,063.30  4,932.80     130.50  5,052.45
^NSEI 11/23/2009  5,113.10  5,052.10       61.00  5,103.55
^NSEI 11/24/2009  5,112.85  5,053.50       59.35  5,090.55
^NSEI 11/25/2009  5,138.00  5,078.35       59.65  5,108.15
^NSEI 11/26/2009  5,116.45  4,986.05     130.40  5,005.55
 
Previous day low has been breached by a big margin! It remains to be seen whether there will be a bounce from 4920-4930 support region.
Can the bulls repeat what they did on 20/11/2009?  As of now  it looks really tough.
 
 
cheers
vish






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