24 November 2009
Good Morning,
Score Card: 23 November 2009,
Nifty performed exactly as was mentioned in the Chart Construction. This was verified by the movement of the Nifty in accordance of the levels mentioned in the Chart Construction. Nifty made a high of 5113.10 as against the level of 5114 – 5112, which was a zone of a very strong resistance. Through the day it stayed in this region. The call for the day was to be long in the market. The prognosis was that the market would move higher, and this forecast was fulfilled. The traders who followed the Chart construction and the prognosis made on 20 November 2009, would have had a successful day at trading on 23 November 2009. All said and done, the Chart construction for 20 November 2009 was accurate in forecasting the market movement through the day. The following are the synopsis of the trades for 23 November 2009.
Nifty Futures: Target achieved Profitable trade. Central Bank: Stop Loss clicked, Loss making trade India Glycols: Target achieved, Profitable trade Lakshmi Energy & Foods: Target achieved Profitable trade. Oriental Bank: Strategy not activated. SE Asia Marine: Target achieved Profitable trade.
Out of the six trades given one went wrong. The success of the trades given is about83 %. The details of this synopsis with the numbers would be given at the end of every month.
Market Summary:
Nifty closed at 5103.55 for the day dated 23rd November 2009 with a gain of 51.10points over the previous close of 5052.45 on lower volumes. Nifty was in a stable environment for the day. The bell weather stocks were doing their bit by being stable and responsible for the Nifty moving up today. The move towards the upside was fueled by a general lack of interest as is evident from the volumes. There is a Major Cycle change between the 23rd November 2009 and 24th November 2009 and there could be a possibility that this could be a bull trap in making. The Cycle changing date is today. Let us see what Nifty has in store for the market participants. By no means have Cycle studies given a confirmed signal on that day itself. One has to watch how the market behaves before taking a call on the market. But rest assured, as and when the market gives a reversal around the Cycle turning dates, the potency and chances of a good price movement against the trend is bona fide. The Market is always right and we have to go by this maxim and only take positions opposite to the trend, only when the markets tell us to. Therefore we would be looking to the Nifty to guide us in the days to come.
Market Analysis:
Nifty closed at 5103.55 for the day dated 23rd November 2009 with a gain of 51.10points over the previous close of 5052.5 on lesser volumes. The ratio of advancing stocks to declining stock was in favor of advancing stocks although not by much. 732stocks advanced and 508 stocks declined. The market momentum is favoring the bulls at this stage until the time cycle mentioned before takes effect. The following is an analysis for the market on 24 November 2009, in short without mentioning all the details.
Price action: Up. Volumes: contracting. Trend: Neutral – up. Money Flow: Money flowing into the markets is Neutral. Volatility: Neutral. Sentiments: Buyers are in charge. Market Patterns: Up move in Nifty is suggested by the Pattern analysis, Candlesticks analysis, Indicator and Oscillator analysis, Fibonacci analysis, Gann analysis and Elliott Wave analysis. Cycles: There is a reversal shown by the cycle studies between 23 November and 24 November.
S.W.O.T Analysis:
Strength: Based on the evidence that is thrown up by the Market Analysis it is projected that the Market would move up as most of the parameters point in this direction. The evidence of the analysis tells of the strength the Bulls have in pushing the Market up. Albeit on lower volumes and the expectancy, that the markets are poised to move much higher. Weakness: There is very little weakness shown by the studies except for the volumes which are on the lower side. This is a suspect. Only some untoward incident or a bad news could negate the Bull Strategy today. Opportunity: Opportunity the market presents, is to be long in the Market. But since it is a cycle turning day be on your guard for a sudden move against the trend. This may not happen but it is better to be fore warned. Threat: The only threat evident on the Chart is the Cycle Turning Date. As we are entering this phase it is prudent to let the Nifty Guide us. Sometimes the cycles can create havoc in Intraday by moving against the trend. If in Intraday any weakness is evident, please exit the Intra-Day trades.
Market Insight and Prognosis:
Taking into consideration the Market Summary and Market Analysis, It can be said with a certain degree of confidence that the Markets are poised to move higher on 24thNovember 2009. It is a day when the Bulls will be in charge of the Market. There fore the prognosis is that the Market would move up and the projections are that the trader should be a bull rather than a Bear with a very watchful eye, as today is a possible Cycle turnaround. The weekly volume for the ended week was low as compared to the previous week. There by adding credibility to the cycle change that may take place on the given dates. Any way it is for the market to prove this. It is always better to follow the markets than predict the turn around. Use the Daily Chart Construction to guide you through the day. In the markets any thing can happen. If the levels on the Daily Chart Construction are superseded revert to the Weekly Chart Construction. Firstly the close on Nifty below 5085.00 will give the clue to the trend change in Nifty. Incase this happens today, do not take any long positions home. Secondly strictly adhere to the suggested Stop Loss as this will ensure the safety of you capital. Never trade without a Stop loss. Thirdly observe what the Markets are doing near or at the target levels of the stocks given to trade. Relate this to the Chart Construction before you take your decision to exit or enter a trade. If this becomes a discipline with you, then trading would be a cake walk for you.
Wishing you a great trading day.
With Regards, Ranjit. |
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Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
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