[Attachment(s) from Ganesh Iyer included below]
From: arun varghese <arun9995022849@gmail.com>
Sent: Tue, 22 December, 2009 10:10:14 PM
Subject: [sharetrading] A Good Bearish Case for Indian Markets - Lets DISCUSS...... [1 Attachment]
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If I am right this is an extract from ICICI Direct weekly outlook. Yes it looks pretty much convincing.
But what bothers me is the following
The 2003 rally came after the 2000 fall.
Actually it looks like this the move up started somewhere in 1998 peaked in 2000 kept going down till sep 2001 consolidated till may 03 then peaked near jan 04.
And if you check the attached charts (1.gif) the 2003 rally peak (which is actually jan 04) is above 2000 peak and If i am right it means a breakout.
Then came the fall of 60 odd percent then the great bull run to jan 2008 peak.
One more thing that is bothering me is if i try drawing a support line for the 2003 rally and extend it, the strange thing unfolds (check 3.gif).
The peak of 2008 actually is not even penetrating this support line (crazy) (ofcourse just to check i later converted this line to fib retracement.
Now how will this 2.gif look like going into the future. ???
From: arun varghese <arun9995022849@
Sent: Tue, 22 December, 2009 10:10:14 PM
Subject: [sharetrading] A Good Bearish Case for Indian Markets - Lets DISCUSS.....
Hey Guys:
VP has done a great comparison that caught my eye......I think this is a pretty good situation that can occur based on:
1. The weakness in the US markets that we will see in 2010 once the GDP for Q4 is announced it should be downhill from there
2. PSUs that will suck up major investment rupees in 2010 once they announce their offers
3. Overvaluation of the markets today based on PE, PB, PEG, Potential Earnings Potential
4. Increase in Rates planned by RBI to curb inflation
5. Too fast of an upmove, going up too much, and all based on recovery from deep oversold levels (TA based thinking here)
6. Patterns of 2003 could repeat itself in 2010 (VP's analysis - see below since it is pretty convincing)
Of course, item 6 could just be one occurance and it might never happen again, but when you combine it with the previous 5 bullets, it just 'might' happen!
What do you guys think?
-- VP has done a great comparison that caught my eye......I think this is a pretty good situation that can occur based on:
1. The weakness in the US markets that we will see in 2010 once the GDP for Q4 is announced it should be downhill from there
2. PSUs that will suck up major investment rupees in 2010 once they announce their offers
3. Overvaluation of the markets today based on PE, PB, PEG, Potential Earnings Potential
4. Increase in Rates planned by RBI to curb inflation
5. Too fast of an upmove, going up too much, and all based on recovery from deep oversold levels (TA based thinking here)
6. Patterns of 2003 could repeat itself in 2010 (VP's analysis - see below since it is pretty convincing)
Of course, item 6 could just be one occurance and it might never happen again, but when you combine it with the previous 5 bullets, it just 'might' happen!
What do you guys think?
--
Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... ..
--
Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,
Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism,
They Mature on Optimism, and
Die on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton
------------ --------- --------- ------
Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism,
Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s,
Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, and
Die on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP
------------ --------- --------- --------- --------
>BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when
others are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then when
the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and
be patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new
issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold
bars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interested
in stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interested
is when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular and
expect to do well.
ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations.
------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -------
Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice.
ISG is an open forum for expressing views. Members recommending stocks may have positions in the same. Individual members are requested to do their own research and/or consult a certified financial planner before making decisions with respect to buying and selling stocks or derivatives.
ISG, it's owner and moderators do not take any responsibility for the views expressed in the forum and any consequences including financial, legal or otherwise resulting from actions based on such views.
The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! Homepage.
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Attachment(s) from Ganesh Iyer
3 of 3 Photo(s)
Please use your discretion before acting on the ideas expressed in the group.
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
Happy Trading,
United we grow!!!
MARKETPLACE
.
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