Meaningful day..
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
End of the day…
Finally market entered into the rollover mode of the last settlement of 2009. Cni had predicted in last Dec at 2700 Nifty targets of 3800 4300 and 5000 and we at Cni having the highest success in India in market prediction.
The rollover countdown began with 2 holidays in coming days before the settlement leaving with us only 5 days which is really not sufficient to rollover of over Rs 1 lac crs OI in Dec future.
Market was in bear grip for almost last one week and hence there are more short positions than long ones though market maker has gone long in Nifty yesterday evening as well as through out the day. The volume of Nifty did not give any conviction to bears to cut their short. Even the closing below 5000 was another reason for bears to smile and keep shorts in tact.
Tomorrow is the count down day and most likely Nifty will open at 5040 and will zoom like a bullet in new orbit. You have seen how SAIL and Tisco performed (both were CNI calls). This is simply because the time was good for bulls to take bears to task in these counters to begin with. Tomorrow is the run of Bharati, Idea, IFCI and IDBI along with all realty stocks and RIL the KING.
We know from our sources there is huge buying lined up in Bharati and Idea. Bharati is index mover also. IDBI and IFCI are flexible stocks and will rise very fast. In fact, IFC I is to prove this time that this stock can make wonders in ban period. ISPAT story is finally out and it is just matter of time where I can see Ispat flying.
Market recovered today after US market closed firm on senate passing Health Bill. Though this health bill is beneficial to Indian generic companies, the stocks prices have run up in anticipation and the sector is absolutely overbought. I see profit booking in this sector. There are lots of sell blocs are in the market in these counters. So please be careful. So also be careful in FMCG and IT sector. FMCG could get hurt if the CRR rate hike comes in and I T is because the US is still not recovering and they will have to depend on Indian demand.
On the contrary, cement, steel paper, textiles and off course realty offers decent opportunity to make money. Even though rising rates could impact demand in realty, the demand is rising for sure. Housing loan interest will remain stable whereas land deals have started seeing light of the day. The costlier the land deals the costlier the selling prices. This will benefit stocks like Century and Bombay Dyeing where there is no inventory cost.
Some times back there was a question whether B Dyeing will be able to sell their projects at Rs 28000 in Dadar but now with rising demand I am sure they can do even at Rs 30000 plus. They have started borrowing more for completing project which is a good sign. Century has still better realisation as it is having project at WORLI which is much better part than DADAR and is at the center of Mumbai. Century has also advantage of pulp, textiles and cement (9 mn tons).
I am looking at Nifty 5250 plus in this settlement on 31st Dec as this happens to be A NAV day also. Bulls had done their homework in a most professional and systematic manner to reverse the market from 5180 on five occasions which was visible. It was a controlled move whether one agrees or not.
Having said that they have brought down market from 5180 to 4950 which was a decent correction trapping the bears. As of date most of my friends believe that 5200 is most stubborn resistance and it is difficult to break due to CRR issue and other issues.
This is market and it will never stop whether CRR rate hike comes or not. The destination is Nifty 7000 and therefore the movements of ups and downs should be used only fro buying at every dip.
A thankful heart is not only the greatest virtue, but the parent of all the other virtues
BigGains !!
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