Sensex

Sunday, November 15, 2009

[Technical-Investor] Market review.

 

Volatility ruled the roost as the key benchmark indices surged on strong industrial output data. The BSE 30-share Sensex was provisionally up 148.17 points or 0.89% up close to 180 points from the day's low and off close to 65 points from the day's high.

The 50 unit S&P CNX Nifty closed below the psychological 5,000 mark after moving above and below that market during the day. IT, banking, metal and auto stocks rose. Index heavyweights Reliance Industries jumped. The market breadth turned was almost even.

Intraday volatility on the bourses was immense. The market rebounded soon after an initial slide triggered by mostly lower Asian stocks. The market pared gains later. It firmed up again in mid-morning trade. The market surged to a fresh intraday high in early afternoon trade. The market pared gains in afternoon trade. The market surged to a fresh intraday high in mid-afternoon trade. It pared gains later

Industrial output rose 9.1% in September 2009 over September 2008, data released by the government during trading hours on Thursday showed. The government revised upwards the industrial production growth for August 2009 to 11% from 10.4%.

Consumer durable goods output surged by an annual 22.2%, manufacturing production rose 9.3%, mining output was up 8.6% and power generation rose 7.9% in September 2009 over September 2008.

The food price index was up 13.68% in 12 months to 31 October 2009, the government said on Thursday. The fuel index was down 1.71%. The government will release monthly data for all commodities for October 2009 on Saturday, 14 November 2009. The data was earlier scheduled to be released on Thursday.

Rangarajan, a former central bank governor, said the economy could grow 7-8% in 2010/11 (April-March), but Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla said on Wednesday the economy cannot return to the 8-9% growth trajectory until exports revive.

Exports declined 11.4 % in October from a year earlier, their 13th drop in a row, and trade secretary Rahul Khullar said exports would start growing only from January.

A central bank deputy governor Shyamala Gopinath said on Tuesday 10 November 2009 that India faces a dilemma of needing to contain rising inflation while trying to support growth and managing foreign capital inflows. But the finance secretary said the surge in capital inflows into the country was not a matter of concern for now, and authorities were not planning to put any curbs on such flows.

European shares were higher on Friday, with news that British Airways and Iberia are set to merge offsetting data showing German and French third-quarter GDP growth came in below expectations. The key benchmark indices in Germnay and UK were up by between 0.01% to 0.11%. But France's CAC 40 fell 0.37%.

France's economy grew 0.3% in the third quarter, Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said during a visit to Singapore on Friday. The growth was the same as in the second quarter, when France's economy expanded for the first time after four quarters of contraction.

Germany's third-quarter gross domestic product rose a smaller-than-expected 0.7% compared with the previous quarter, the German Statistics Office reported on Friday. Analysts expected the data to show German growth accelerated at a quarterly pace of 0.8%. In the second quarter, Germany posted quarterly growth of 0.3%. Compared to the third quarter of last year, Germany's GDP fell 4.8% in the third quarter of 2009, in line with expectations.

The euro zone economy jumped out of recession in the third quarter, data showed on Friday, but with slightly less spring than expected after the area's top three economies fell short of market forecasts. Gross domestic product in the 16 countries using the euro rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after five consecutive quarters of shrinking output, but was 4.1% lower year-on-year.

Asian stocks were trading mixed on Friday as oil prices declined on concern the global economic recovery will falter. The key benchmark indices in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan fell by between 0.05% to 0.35%. But the key benchmark indices in Singapore, China and Hong Kong rose by between 0.04 % to 0.7%.

Fan Jianping, chief economist with the State Information Centre on Friday said China's annual GDP growth rate could reach 10% in the fourth quarter as the economic recovery exceeds expectations, with full-year economic growth expected at about 8.3%. He added that next year's economic growth would certainly exceed 8% but was unlikely to bring inflation risks, with the consumer price index possibly rising about 2.5%.

China's central bank vice governor Zhu Min said China is experiencing a V-shaped economic recovery, but it still faces tough challenges to restructure its economy in the process. He said China will place more emphasis on improving the quality and structure of the economy next year as growth becomes less of a worry. His comments come amid growing signs that the world's third-largest economy has put the worst of the global financial crisis firmly behind it

Trading in US index futures indicated Dow could rise 28 points at the opening bell on Friday, 13 November 2009.

US markets ended in the red on Thursday after a weak holiday outlook from Wal-Mart and drop in energy prices offset fewer jobless claims. The Dow fell 93.79 points, or 0.9%, to 10,197.47, snapping a six-day winning streak. The S&P 500 index was down 11.27 points, or 1%, to 1,087.24. The Nasdaq fell 17.88 points, or 0.8%, to 2,149.02.

In economic data from the US, jobless claims fell for the second straight week. The latest initial jobless claims tally came in at a lower-than-expected 502,000, which is the lowest weekly total since January. Meanwhile, continuing claims came in at 5.63 million, which is the lowest level since March 2009. Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed down to 4.91% and home foreclosures slowed for a third consecutive month.

Trade and foreign ministers of the 21-member Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on Thursday to stick with stimulus plans as long as it takes to achieve a sustained economic recovery, warning that unemployment is still too high and systemic barriers to new growth remain. The ministers also endorsed market-oriented exchange rates, a somewhat surprising stand given that several Asian countries manage their currencies to some degree.

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the emergency measures put in place by APEC member governments - including some $1 trillion in Asia and $787 billion in the United States alone - had prevented a deeper downturn. He said the pace at which exit strategies from those fiscal and monetary stimulus steps are implemented will vary. This is because the group includes China and other Asian economies that avoided a recession, but also the United States and Japan which were plunged into recession after last year's credit crisis.

APEC member economies account for 40% of the world's population across four continents, more than half of global gross domestic product and nearly half of world trade.

The International Monetary Fund's managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Friday the pace of the recovery in the U.S. economy remains sluggish but he does not believe there will be a double-dip recession.

As per provisional figures, the BSE 30-share Sensex was up 148.17 points or 0.89% to 16,844.20. At the day's high of 16,909.74, the Sensex rose 213.71 points in late trade. The Sensex fell 29.33 points at the day's low of 15666.70 in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 44.25 points or 0.89% to 4996.90 as per provisional figures. Nifty hit a high of 5017.90.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5288 crore, lower than Rs 7383.87 crore on Thursday, 12 November 2009.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was almost even. On BSE, 1340 shares advanced as compared with 1357 that declined. A total of 108 shares remained unchanged.

From the 30 share Sensex pack 25 rose and rest fell.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.01% and the BSE Small-cap index rose 0.18%.

Energy major Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 0.85% to Rs 2118. The stock was volatile. It hit a high of Rs 2127.90 and a low of Rs 2085.10. Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries (RIL) and Anil Ambani led Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) are slugging it out in the Supreme Court over the supply of gas from RIL's D6 block in the Krishna-Godavari (KG) basin. While RNRL has sought the apex court's intervention in a special leave petition for immediate supply of 28 mscmd of gas from KG D6 at $2.34 per mmBtu for a period of 17 years, RIL has opposed this saying the price is 44% lower than that mandated by the government. RIL says it cannot supply gas at a price not approved by the government and to a user not listed in its gas utilization policy.

RIL on 10 November 2009 said reports of a meeting between the billionaire Ambani brothers to settle a gas-pricing dispute were baseless. RIL said in a statement the matter would be decided by the Supreme Court, which is currently hearing the case.

RIL on Tuesday 10 November 2009 announced its first oil discovery in its exploration block in the Cambay Basin off Gujarat. Reliance holds 100% participating interest in the block. This block was awarded to Reliance under the fifth round of the New Exploration Licensing Policy.

India's biggest state-run oil exploration firm by revenue Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) rose 2.93% on television reports the oil ministry has proposed a sharp hike in administered gas prices.

Meanwhile, the government has allowed ONGC Videsh - the overseas arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) to invest an additional Rs 322 crore in an oilfield in Brazil. The approval of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) will raise the total investment in the project to Rs 1,762 crore.

India's largest thermal power producer by sales NTPC rose 0.28%. A 5% stake sale in state-run power producer could fetch the government Rs 8100 crore ($1.7 billion), Sunil Mitra, a senior finance ministry official, said on Friday. Last week, the government mandated more sales of shares by state firms and changed the rules on how it can use the proceeds, as it seeks to boost revenues and rein in a widening budget deficit

Last month, the cabinet approved share sales for NTPC, Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam and Rural Electrification Corp.The stake sales will be completed by March next year, Mitra said. Rural Electrification Corporation fell 1.42%.

Rate sensitive realty shares fell after the RBI, last week, raised the provisioning requirements for loans to commercial real estate from 0.4% to 1% in its monetary policy review meet on 27 October 2009. Omaxe, Unitech, Indiabulls real Estate, DLF, Parsvnath Developers fell by between 0.36% to 1.96%.

The latest RBI move will result in increase in borrowing costs for realty firms which depend heavily on borrowing. In view of large increase in credit to the commercial real estate sector over the last one year and the extent of restructured advances in this sector, it would be prudent to build cushion against likely non-performing assets (NPAs), the central bank said in its quarterly policy review.

Banking shares rose on hopes of financial sector reforms. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 1.73% even as its ADR fell 5.24% on Thursday. The bank's net profit rose 2.6% to Rs 1040.13 crore on a 12.7% decline in total income to Rs 8480.73 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The result was announced during trading hours on 30 October 2009.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 0.39% even as its ADR fell 4.45% on Thursday.

But, India's largest bank by net profit State Bank of India (SBI) fell 0.2%. State Bank of India said on 9 November 2009 said it had entered into an agreement with T. Rowe Price to sell a 6.5% holding each in UTI Asset Management Company and UTI Trustee Company. State Bank currently holds 25% in each of the companies and after the sale its holding would be reduced to 18.5%, it said in a statement.

SBI announced after market hours on Friday 6 November 2009 it has revised downwards interest rates on deposits by 25-50 basis points for a few maturities effective from 9 November 2009. The bank's consolidated net profit rose 28.29% to Rs 3,133.16 crore on 22% rise in consolidated income to Rs 33,101.65 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The results were announced on 31 October 2009.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Sunday, 8 November 2009, financial reforms, such as building up a domestic bond market and expanding foreign investment in sectors like insurance, would be pushed forward.

As per reports, the government plans to introduce two key bills in parliament by December 2009. It plans to introduce bills proposing the raising of foreign stake limits in insurers to 49% from the present 26% and opening up the pension sector to private and foreign firms.

Rate sensitive auto stocks rose as low interest rates and attractive benefits offered by companies pushed up sales in October 2009.

India's largest small car marker by sales Maruti Suzuki India rose 4.24%. The company's total sales grew 32.4% to 85415 units in October 2009, compared with 64490 units posted in the same month a year ago.

India's largest truck marker by sales Tata Motors rose 0.1%. The company's total sales grew 18% to 20,011 units last month against 17,014 units in the same period last year.

India's second largest bike marker by sales Bajaj Auto rose 0.21%. Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of French car maker Renault and Japan's Nissan Motor Co, said on Tuesday an agreement had been signed with Bajaj Auto for a low-cost car which would come to India in 2012.

India's largest bike marker by sales Hero Honda Motors rose 4.04%. The company reported a marginal increase in October sales at 354,156 units as against 352,449 units in the same month last year

But, India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra fell 0.5%. The company's overall sales climbed 32% in October this year to 18,410 units against 13,935 units in the same month last year. Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) reportedly plans to launch a motorcycle next year. The company is also looking at acquisitions in the electronic scooter space. The auto major had entered the two-wheeler market market by acquiring the assets of Pune-based scooter manufacturer Kinetic Motor in 2008.

Car sales in India rose an annual 34% to 132,615 units in October 2009, boosted by festival demand and easier availability of loans, an industry body said on Wednesday 11 November 2009. Sales of trucks and buses, a gauge of economic activity, rose 52% to 42,562 units in October 2009, the data showed.

IT stocks rose for third straight day after the president of industry body Nasscom recently said the sector will regain double-digit growth from April 2010. India's second largest software company by sales Infosys rose 1.55% even as its ADR fell 0.44% on Thursday. Infosys BPO, the business processing outsourcing subsidiary of Infosys Technologies, on Thursday announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire all of the outstanding interests of McCamish Systems LLC, a premier business process solutions provider, based in Atlanta, Georgia in the United States.

The acquisition is expected to be completed later this year subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions. The upfront consideration for the deal is $38 million with up to an additional $20 million payable to the sellers if McCamish Systems achieves certain financial targets in the future. The announcement was made before market hours on Thursday 12 November 2009.

India's third largest software company by sales Wipro rose 1.22% . Its ADR rose 0.15% on Thursday. Wipro, sees robust deal pipeline on the back of improving IT demand worldwide, Suresh Vaswani, joint chief executive said on Tuesday 10 November 2009. The company said on 5 November 2009 it had agreed to buy some personal care businesses of Yardley for about $45.5 million, adding to its consumer goods business. Wipro said it had signed an agreement with UK-based Lornamead group, which owns the Yardley brand, for the businesses in Asia, the Middle East, Australasia and some African markets.

India's largest software company by sales Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rose 2.45%. The company recently secured a 150 million pounds software implementation contract for 15 years from Cardiff city council, UK.

Metal stocks reversed early losses on strong domestic demand. Hindalco Industries, and Sterlite Industries rose by between 0.08% to 1.36 %. But National Aluminium Company fell 0.67%. The company recently hiked the prices of aluminium products by Rs 1000 a tonne reflecting the recent uptrend in prices on the London Metal Exchange.

Tata Steel, the world's eighth largest steelmaker by output, rose 1.84%. The company said on Thursday 12 November 2009 it approved a new convertible bonds offer in exchange for an existing $875 million securities to reduce costs and ease repayment obligations. The company said on Friday 6 November 2009 steel sales at its Indian operations rose 38% to 462,000 tonnes in October 2009 over October 2008.

Steel Authority of India rose 3.29% after finance official Sunil Mitra said in touch with steel ministry for possible stake sale in the company. As per recent reports the company may cut prices of flat steel products sold in the spot market by Rs 500 a tonne next month in line with international price movement.

Demand for steel remains strong from auto, rural construction and infrastructure sectors. Also demand for construction grade steel has improved post monsoon season, and has resulted into higher sales.

Ramsarup Industries surged 4.22%, after the company signed a power purchase pact with West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company, a West Bengal state government enterprise

Zuari Industries jumped 4.15% after the company inked gas supply pact with Gas Authority of India for supply of re-liquefied natural gas for its fertilizer facility.

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