**[investwise]** Ken Fisher: Good To Be A Bull

 

The post-April stock market correction has been the most textbook perfect I've seen since the one in 1998. That one fed on the Asian contagion, the Russian ruble crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund freak-out.   Like that one, this year's minicrash had been pushed along by several scary stories that turned out to be nonsense but were nonetheless impossible to dispel. The biggest was the PIIGS hysteria--the idea that Greece was going to go bust and take down Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain with it.   But all five have effectively completed their 2010 financings without incident. Only Greece took any bailout money at all. The other four raised all they needed and more in normal markets on heavily oversubscribed demand--at rates not far from those on U.S. and German government paper.   Have you ever noticed that the media never, ever confess, "We were wrong to scare you to death"?   We still have lingering fears about a double-dip recession. That's big and scary and hard to disprove. But the fact is that the big global economies are intertwined. So we're going to get another recession only if the whole world does. Now try to name two global double-dip recessions in the past century. You would be hard pressed to cite one. (Many think 1937 qualifies, but they're wrong. GDP grew for three straight years, and the market was up 324% since 1932.) I know you can't find two.   Why do so many fear something that has pretty much never happened? Because we always do that early in a big bull market after a huge bear market. At some later point false fears are seen as that. At that point the rebound will resume.   A double-dip decline in the economy is simply inconsistent with the good news we're getting on the corporate earnings front. As I write, 459 of the S&P 500 firms have reported second-quarter profits, with 75% exceeding expectations, 9% meeting them and only 16% falling short. I expect $82 for earnings this year (after writeoffs) on this index. At a recent 1085 the index is trading at 13 times current-year earnings.   The second quarter of 2010 should be the third quarter in a row when earnings growth exceeds 30%. The last time that happened was 1983. Double-dip is not in the cards.   Investors also fear a jobless recovery. They're forgetting that jobs don't create growth. Growth creates jobs. The demonstrable sales and earnings growth tells you things will be fine. Get ready for this bull market's second leg. Safe Harbor Statement: Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.   Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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