Nifty closed at 22.75 on 23rd Jul'10. Nifty's PER(Price/Earnings Ratio) chart from the year 1999 is attached alongwith the Mail.
PER exceeded 24 only on two occasions ie. in 2000 and 2008, after a gap of eight years. On both occasions heavy market crash followed and PER came down to 12. As financial cycles are generally of eight years duration PER exceeding 24 may not happen now and then. Therefore, ordinary retail investors are advised to ignore the profit beyond 23 (2+3=5, all fib numbers) and stay away from the market till PER reduces to a reasonable level after a correction. Who are extremely confident and able to take risk can ignore this and try their luck.
Nifty @ 23 PE Ratio -> 5509
Nifty @ 24 PE Ratio -> 5748
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The finest steel has to go through the hottest fire...!!!
Samir Kumar Shah.
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