| Fiscal Consolidation on track.... |
| Friday, June 25, 2010 |
| End of the day… Irrespective of oil decontrol market closed in negative territory. All oil stocks were up by 10 to 15%. As per media story this week I B had referred big bulls positions in OIL stocks to PMO and yet the oil decontrol has come this week. It means Govt has decided to do acts as fast as possible without even waiting who is doing what. What is heartening is to see that they have touched Kerosene without bothering what white saree and red fatva could think of poor people as kerosene is the much essential commodity for the poor. This will add definite pressure on inflation next week and hence market reacted today negatively. To combat inflation RBI may act as early today evening or tomorrow to raise interest rates. I had clearly signaled that we will wait till Monday or 5140 before reentering Nifty. Meanwhile we are long in stocks and we are not bothered about this correction. On the other hand lot of good has come and I am really comfortable with the fiscal deficit. I am sure now we are heading for 3% fiscal deficit in next 12 months. First GOI raised Rs 110000 crs. Another 40000 crs will come from PSU stake sells. Fertiliser and oil control will make Budgets free of subsidies which generally eat major portion of Budget raising the fiscal deficit. I just read yesterday that road plan was required to cut from 20 kms a day to 10 kms a day due to huge capex of over Rs 8 lac crores. This kind of measure only will lead India to real and meaningful development of infrastructure. Roads, Ports, Rail and Airlines are the major infra stream. As far Airlines and ports are concerned we have seen privatisation but rail and road will remain with GOI and they will have to step up their speed. What foreign investors see is fiscal deficit. India satisfies the condition of reducing fiscal deficit and rising growth and hence the inflow is unstoppable. This is what made me think clear on 6000 roadmap. I am very clear now that the fall if at all could be the last fall before we see market rebound to 5400 plus and thereafter seeing 5000 in only a dream. I am also sure we have to see 7000 Nifty but for that I need to show you first 6000. In 2012 you will not have any paper to sell. Take it from me. Those who are selling in haste will regret forever. There may not be your beloved to save from the grave and dire consequences coming after 2014 due to the austerity measures. I am bullish only till 2015 and therefore you can always call me bull. After 2015 you will find me bearish forever. I was bearish from 2000 to 2003. I cannot seem to feel alive unless I am alert and I cannot feel alert unless I push past the point where I have control |
BigGains !!
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