Now first of all, I'd like to thank Prashant for writing. Because the truth is I welcome others' opinions, even though I may not always agree with them. After all, I never said I had a crystal ball.
But, buying Titan in Triple digit at 999 would have also earned handsome profits.... Not necessary to buy at double digits (10 or 99)...There are a plenty of ideas available in the markets, just that one needs some dedicated study & regular tracking to take informed decisions...
I can still name a few stocks which (if not like TITAN), can be good investment candidates....stocks like PNB, IRB Infra, Crompton Greaves, Piramal Healthcare, Mphasis BFL, LIC Housing, Welspun Gujarat, IDFC, Torr Power, REC Ltd, CIPLA, DABUR, Torr Pharma, TTK Prestige, Hawkins, Tata Tea, M&M, Whirlpool... . List goes on... I am sure returns on some of these stocks have beat INDEX by great margins and will continue to do so for sometime...
I am not sure if someone bot EDSERV @ 25-30 rs (4 months back)....today quoting @ 250.... thats like close to 10 bagger? Index is nowhere closer to it......I still feel this stock has long way to go....May be 500-700 (But thats more from news thats attached with the stock)...
These are not tough to find, someone who knows charts - can very well tell how strong these stocks are & how they will fare from hereon....Thats a deadly combo of charts + funda news...
There is difference between Smart Investing, Value Investing & " Me-too " strategy. I know its tough to identify such multibaggers, but as you would appreciate - there's no Free lunch. For someone reading the markets close to heart and tracking stocks with greater interest - Investing pays off very well.
Intraday trading is definitely great model - provided ppl know/abide by the rules of the game. Stoploss, risk & return need to be clearly identified and religiously followed day after day, trade by trade. Else, every intraday trader would be RJ or Warren Buffet by now.... On a lighter note :)
Good investing,
Rgds/BalajiOn Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 3:37 PM, Prashanth K <prash454.ta@gmail.com > wrote:
As I have repeatedly said, and I repeat, you have to devise your own way since there is no uniform way or method that can be applied across.People speak about Buffet ignoring the fact that there is no way any person can replicate the way he builds his portfolio. Method can be used to a extent but is not foolproof by any length of imagination.>> how do we plan positioning / protecting our investments, if we are foreseeing big shiftWhat is a big shift? Is it the Index falling by 5% / 10% or any other barometer?Its important to understand that by the time Index breaks down a important level, individual stocks (mid and small cap) would have done much worse. So, would one be able to exit at those prices (i.e., is on mentally prepared to exit 10 / 20% below the highs reached? )I do not personally believe in long term buy and hold unless one has the capability to identify stocks at the start (like buying Titan for example in double digits). If one cannot identify such individual stocks, the question that has to be asked is whether we can at worse beat the Index returns.Do note that a lot of persons on a longer term are not able to beat the Index returns consistently.One of the key reasons for huge failure by a lot of Investors / Traders is the fact that many believe that making money is easy, its just that they tend to have bad luck. Luck plays a very small part for the well prepared. I myself used to blame lack of lady luck but when I questioned myself, I knew that there was more that can be ascribed to my failures than pure Luck.One of the negatives of reading or listening to too many persons is the fact that very rarely would you come across a guy who not only accepts that the market beat him fair and square.
If making money was easy as speaking, no one would have needed to work else where since one can make all the money he can ever require if he is consistently right in the markets.For a small investor who cannot devote the amount of time and effort required, investing in a group of Mutual Funds are a good alternative.If one is trading a strategy that one is not comfortable, then its just a matter of time before he first under performs other similar risk based benchmarks and then starts to altogether have negative returns from the portfolio.CheersPrashanthOn Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 1:51 PM, Dinkar Mehta <dinkar_mehta@yahoo.com > wrote:Prashanth: Agreed, but from an investor point of view (buy and hold or medium to long term, no F&O)… how do we plan positioning / protecting our investments, if we are foreseeing big shift… If we see a big shift coming our way down the line – how does one plan to position / protect his investment against the shift… The exit / diversification needs to be planned, because it is very difficult to exist / diversify big chunk of investments at one go… it would be great, If you could share some process/system around this..
Regards,
Dinkar
From: Prashanth K <prash454.ta@gmail.com >Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2009 12:35:00
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] next week
If I can stub in, I feel that as I repeately say, each has to determine his own comfort level, his own trading time frame and then proceed to build a system that can trade based on those parameters.Each of us trade not only on our beliefs but also our risk acceptance levels.Personally, as a F&O player, why should I worry about what shall or may happen some time in the future. All i have to worry is whether I am ready to accept the change when that happens.Too many traders I know catch the trend quite early but just do not know or rather do not believe that the trend has reversed and keep trading against the trend hoping against hope that the original trend they were part of will return.CheersPrashanth
On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 12:27 PM, Dinkar Mehta <dinkar_mehta@yahoo.com > wrote:
Sniper: Thanks for explaining it very nicely. So now next question is a "million dollar question :)" How do we position our self from an investor perspective?
Plan for reducing exposure towards equity? But then the question is where should the investment be diversified? Any safe heaven for the sort of situation we are foreseeing?
Regards,
Dinkar
Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2009 12:07:14
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] next week
i can only speak for myself.Yes i do see a rising mkt in the near term but this will end up very badly. So, the logical question would be...why bother about the future when we can make all the moolah now ?Well, coz when the eventual fallout happens and if one is not positioned properly, all the gains and then some will be wiped out in no timeCheers!
On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 11:56 AM, Dinkar Mehta <dinkar_mehta@yahoo.com > wrote:
Sniper and Balaji: If I have understood it correctly – looks like the views from both of you are on different time frame.
Sniper: from your emails what I have understood is that for time being we may not make new low but eventually it will and the end will be extremely bad and sad.
Balaji: from your emails what I have understood is that the view is of shorter term and market should remain extremely bullish for next couple of months.
Please correct me if I have misunderstood it.
Please keep the gems coming from you. It helps a lot for beginners like me.
Regards,
Dinkar
Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2009 9:43:00
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] next week
The doom & gloom economists - Roubini, Kenneth Rogoff, Niel Ferguson, et all -share a common refrain - the U.S. is in decline, the dollar is in an endless downward spiral & will be replaced as the world's reserve currency with SDR/Gold standard, foreign governments will stop buying T-bills, GDP growth won't ever top 4% again, the manufacturing sector is in permanent decline, Gold is God & only Asset class for safety and security....
To your point - Anyone who has a little bit of common sense left in their heads is bearish. And yes they look beyond charts to see what is coming. Everything what you mentioned above is correct. I dont know about god but gold and silver & hard assets will be the only saviors when this all pans out. All that is happening is short term gain for LONG TERM PAIN.If you inject enough electricity into a zombie, even that zombie becomes Frankenstein. But, remember…There is someone, who is doing things differently J
Despite legitimate concerns, great challenges in US (as we are assuming now) – Oracle of Omaha is buying Railroad Company Burlington @ 31% premium to Market price – DOES THIS TELL YOU ABOUT THE ECONOMY?? Railroads are dependent on economic activity. And if America's economy is uncertain/faltering– How can this legendary investor go wrong???
If you read between the lines what Buffet is doing you will exit the stock markets at once! I will give you a hint what this tells you about the economy.Inflation is coming due to all the money printing habits of central banks, espc the FED. This will lead to higher fuel prices and the road runners like trucks and other heavy vehicles will be hard pressed for business and the only thing viable will be trains.He is not wrong.. he is right for reasons ppl cant see.We ll see how this all pans out.
On Mon, Nov 9, 2009 at 10:13 PM, Balaji Jayaraman <bctbalaji@gmail.com > wrote:
I am happy to see Bears turning Bullish…. Once again J… Sure this fear factor, will alone lead to short covering and fresh highs in Market J
The doom & gloom economists - Roubini, Kenneth Rogoff, Niel Ferguson, et all -share a common refrain - the U.S. is in decline, the dollar is in an endless downward spiral & will be replaced as the world's reserve currency with SDR/Gold standard, foreign governments will stop buying T-bills, GDP growth won't ever top 4% again, the manufacturing sector is in permanent decline, Gold is God & only Asset class for safety and security....
But, remember…There is someone, who is doing things differently J
Despite legitimate concerns, great challenges in US (as we are assuming now) – Oracle of Omaha is buying Railroad Company Burlington @ 31% premium to Market price – DOES THIS TELL YOU ABOUT THE ECONOMY?? Railroads are dependent on economic activity. And if America's economy is uncertain/faltering– How can this legendary investor go wrong???
For sure, I am with Warren Buffet and would bet on buying stocks and staying Invested.
Globally and in INDIA…..Everyone has gone short (now trapped), now will be afraid to go long at Highs after seeing today…. Last week Break of 4680-4720 & even 4600 was just to create panic and a false breakdown…The entire loss is now recovered in 2 days; the bears are actively selling rallies, and the bulls are eagerly buying dips. Just because an index falls below support doesn't mean it's doomed to more declines. But, it should get investors attention & all those who buy such corrections will be rewarded.
Earnings season has been good, economic data continues to show incremental improvement, mergers and acquisitions continue - and it all seems to be slowly priced into stocks. Portfolio managers are churning their portfolio and allocations are made as per next rally expectations. The Ideal/best case scenario right now is range bound trading or sharp recovery from every decline. Let stocks consolidate for a couple of days and see if we can't get a rally going to hit my forecast as per previous mails.
I still stick to my previous targets as per my mails. I have attached the same for your reference.
Now Elliot waves and Chartist have put target of 14k and 12k on Sensex…..Lets see what happens in next 2-3 Months, every TA I speak to now are in Bear's camp and suggest short on rallies. Now they just have two stop loss 4960 / 5050 closing basis…..May be 1 would have the last high in Nifty J….
Rgds/Balaji
From: Technical-Investor@
yahoogroups. [mailto:Technical-Investor@com yahoogroups. ] On Behalf Of Sniper Tradercom
Sent: Monday, November 09, 2009 9:36 PM
1200 by year end i meant. (2009)On Mon, Nov 9, 2009 at 9:35 PM, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@
gmail.com > wrote:At this rate.. i wouldn't be surprised
if S&P does 1200. But thats a moot point. This is all going to end very very badly.
On Mon, Nov 9, 2009 at 9:26 PM, scot scot <scotland_bobby@
yahoo.com > wrote:
we could have a rally. but i would be surprised if it takes off this early.
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@
gmail.com >
To: Technical-Investor@yahoogroups. com Sent: Mon, November 9, 2009 3:34:36 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor] next week
Scot
Look at the USD index. Its precariously close to 75. If we break that... the S&P and dow will have a huge rally and we should follow suit
On Mon, Nov 9, 2009 at 7:47 PM, scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com> wrote:
seeing todays data it seems the crash to lower lows "may" have been postpone but we are still in the zone where becoming bullish for the short term man is not advisable. crash is not out of the question. so next few days needs caution. before becoming outright bullish.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Fri, November 6, 2009 3:05:54 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
i think we may not see 4925-4949 level since everyone knows it. surprised!. everybody is watching this level. in my opinon nifty has been keen to flop wheneever there is hint of-ve sentiment in world markets. i think recent high was the last high and we could resume the downward journey next week.
From: chockkalingam n <chockkalingamn@ yahoo.co. in>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Fri, November 6, 2009 2:58:48 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
Very important levels like 50DEMA and 20WEMAs have been breached effortlessly. So market sentiment has changed atleast from bullish to neutral. There are no positive triggers ahead from Govts/ central banks as there is nothing left for them to do. If NIFTY reverses from 4925(61.8% FIB) we may very well see 4400
--- On Fri, 6/11/09, scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com> wrote:
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Friday, 6 November, 2009, 5:24 PM
its difficult to call that correction phase is over. fireworks on the down side could resume again next week.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Tue, November 3, 2009 10:21:05 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next weekthings are going well. so far so good. enjoy!
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Thu, October 29, 2009 2:17:22 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next weekbelow 4k. around 3600.
From: Zafar M <pappymacha@gmail. com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Thu, October 29, 2009 11:07:38 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
Hi Girish ,
If that happens what downside levels we can expect?
On Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 4:19 PM, Girish <girish.krishnamurth y@gmail.com> wrote:
Today's close at ~4750 (near the crucial range of 4730-4750) is very ominous. If we gap down tomorrow, then these levels will be taken out and definitely, we are likely to see more downside than a bounce back.
Similarities to Jan-08 ??
From: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of scot scot
Sent: 29-Oct-2009 16:14
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
sniper i think we are going to crash i.e we will see a sharp decline. the entire downfall that is exepected (W or much lower) could happen in matter of days/weeks. it isnt going to give time. if we dont get a bounce from here we could fall of cliff very rapidly. thats how i see things paning out at the moment.
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Thu, October 29, 2009 3:24:08 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
KKP, the trade deficit argument has flaws. Just look back from 2000-2008 where USD was weakening and then compare it with the trade deficit for that period.
You are bang on with the USD rate hike vs house prices (i ll also add equities).
I will also add that this time around (unlike 2008), we wont have a sharp USD rally up and a rapid fall in equity markets.
Yes, equities will fall/crash but the USD will go along with it.
Also noteworthy point is, when US mkt fall x %, we fall 2x/3x %. I strongly believe we ll retest the 666 lows in S&P. I dont even want to think where NIFTY will be at ....if that happens.
Interesting times y'all!
On Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 8:38 AM, KKP_Investor <kkpatel1924@ gmail.com> wrote:
I agree that this is a very highly desired and anticipated dead cat bounce from a highly oversold condition. I think Fed wants to keep the $ low to pump up
exports and reduce trade deficit. The trade deficit has gone down from minus 70B in 2008 (per month) to minus 30B in Aug'2009! This is the net effect
of recession and also of the $.
I am welcoming this bounce, and hope it does a big enough bounce, and then it will continue on down.
The bounce is helping bring down oil and gold as it usually does. So, that is also good for the moves I want to make.
There is a possibility of this bounce lasting LONGER than anyone anticipated, but I don't think it is this bounce. We might go back down, and then have another bounce later (between Dec and Jun'2010)
KKP
Sniper Trader wrote:
I highly doubt FED will raise the interest rate. I dont want to go into the reasons for the same as it would entail a lot of non-technical discussion. Nevertheless, it just goes to show how interlinked everything is.
The mother of all liquidity driven rally might finally come to an abrupt halt. Cant wait for the spectacle.
On Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 8:15 AM, Abhijit Selukar <abhijit.selukar@ gmail.com> wrote:
Watch future fed rate...
Dollar should be strengthening as the chances of FED increasing fed fund rate increases...
Yest Norway also increased the interest rate... (first in eurozone)
On Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 8:11 AM, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com> wrote:
Its called a dead cat bounce. Nothing goes down in a straight line. The USD will be gasp for air...trying to come up like a drunken sailor but trend remains down.
On Thu, Oct 29, 2009 at 7:05 AM, BALASUBRAMANIAM SRIRAM <bees2365@yahoo. co.in> wrote:
What happened to the Bearish USD scenario? So USD becomes Bullish? What has suddenly changed in the US for good? US strong again?
Sriram
B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir) /28332373( Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail. com --- On Wed, 28/10/09, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com> wrote:
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. comDate: Wednesday, 28 October, 2009, 9:27 PM
I too think an intermediate top is in. The tipping point IMO was the US$ index reversal/bounce.
On Wed, Oct 28, 2009 at 4:41 PM, scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com> wrote:
this scenario is working wonderfull so far.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Fri, October 9, 2009 1:07:58 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next weekits my study of things i cant tell you in one single point sniper. but its likely and very likely. i turned bearish about a month ago not this week and thats how i am positioning myself. I am not asking anybody to joine me but if i was holding long then i would be protecting them very very carefully.
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Fri, October 9, 2009 1:00:37 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
And the reason for the crash would be? It seems a lot of ppl have turned negative this week.
On Fri, Oct 9, 2009 at 5:25 PM, scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com> wrote:
i also think that we could see something like a black monday/friday type day or a day when we have a historic crash ( a major-major fall) in one single day.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Fri, October 9, 2009 12:06:41 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
i am still clinging on to my position which is looking more and more attractive to me. having said that there is a little potential left that trade can still go against me. but on the positive side its more likely it wouldnt go too far and if it did go i will short it aggressively if that happens. it appears market forces are setting things up for a fall.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wed, September 16, 2009 10:21:37 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next weekalso dow futures were above 9700. markets would awards the trades on the short side. upside would be small if there happens any. i think.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2009 10:13:07 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
I have initiated my short today as ftse has reached my 5100 target.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 11:04:09 AM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next weekthis scenario is pretty much alive and has become prominent seeing the market data. its time to go short at close.
From: scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 1:24:09 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
i think this is how it could pan out. we hit large numbers on nifty and ftse (performing well), and dow doesnt rise above 9650.
one observation i saw was dow went down from 9640 and had a 5 wave decline on hourly chart. while going down nift was close i..e dow was in wave 1, 3 and 5 and when nifty open dow futures were moving up in 2 and 4 and a-b-c correction. a-b-c correction is still underway and max probability would be that it "might" make a new revoery high. a slightly higher number. although it wouldnt happen 9550 could be max. overall i would call the correction over when ftse reaches in the range 5000-5105 which would be 50% retratacement and near 100 week moving average. at this point nifty would also be making highs (near/over 5k) and at that point in my opinon world indexes would be aligned to each other to start the move in the downward direction. it would be good entry point to engage a short position. using "law of large numbers" markets will have tendency to fall back easily to lowers 4000s than to hit mid 5000s. and negative divergences are making sure that people are taking that scenario seriously and are betting that way as well... atleast they are not closing their positions still.
From: BALASUBRAMANIAM SRIRAM <bees2365@yahoo. co.in>
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. . com
Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 12:39:23 PM
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
I don't dispute the theory of liquidity, but, I do question this printing of currency which I very well doubt.Printing and circulating the currency is only one way of increasing the liquidity and it is a primitive one. In modern days one conducts a repo or reverse repo to achieve the objectives of increasing/decreasi ng the M3.
Thanks. It was just to put records straight.
Sriram
B.Sriram
4B, Skylark Apts,
6,Rutlandgate Fifth St.,
Chennai-600006
Ph:+91 44 28334849(Dir) /28332373( Board)
Mobile:+91 98400 63145
Email:bhsppt@gmail. com
--- On Tue, 8/9/09, Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com> wrote:
From: Sniper Trader <snipertrader@ gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Technical-Investor ] next week
To: Technical-Investor@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Tuesday, 8 September, 2009, 4:53 PM
This is my view and others are welcome on comment on the same.
This whole rally (all world mkts) is primarily due to liquidity being pumped in as if there is no tomorrow.
Helicopter Ben and Timmy G wont stop till the amazon has been run down for the want of paper to print ccy notes and food stamps.
Yes there are pocket of growth due to domestic consumption and real stories....but a rally from the march lows to the current highs cant be attributed to it.
The key questions is not IF but WHEN that markets will start reacting. The liquidity orgy cant go on forever.
This purely a macro- economic take on things. No fancy charts or waves.
PS: Gold is hitting new highs and all we hear are greenshoots and roses in the park. When was the last time this happened?
On Tue, Sep 8, 2009 at 4:43 PM, scot scot <scotland_bobby@ yahoo.com> wrote:
hi guys
with so many indicatores throwing negative divergences and stocks/indexes hitting large round numbers, and months of large volume to begin i think we could start going lower beginning next week as that would be an option expiry week. these rally are appearing dangerous to me. and if it breaks then it could act as a decisive break marking end of the rally which has been running since march lows...
would any like to join in with their comments.
thanks
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--Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan to Get Ahead in 2009-2012... ..KKP Investor------------------------Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,Bull Markets Grow on Skepticism,They Mature on Optimism, andDie on Euphoria - Sir John Templeton------------ --------- --------- ------Bear Markets are Born on Recessionism,Snowball on Momentum & Technical-Breakdown s,Mature on Eco-Political- Nightmare Talks, andDie on World-Is-Coming- To-An-End Euphoria - KKP------------ --------- --------- --------- -------->BUFFET: My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy whenothers are fearful. All day you wait for the pitch you like, then whenthe fielders are asleep, you stepup
and hit it. Stay dispassionate andbe patient. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every newissue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying goldbars and predicting another Great Depression. Most people get interestedin stocks when everyone else is jumping in. The time to get interestedis when no one else is interested. You can't buy what is popular andexpect to do well.ABOVE ALL: Whatever God Does, Accept that as Good; Leave Behind ALL Other Judgements/Justific ations.------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -------Disclaimer> Do you homework for your ownself and then invest. My ideas are not advice.
--
an investor's worst enemy is not the stock market, but his own emotions driven by greed and fear
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