Nifty/ Sensex: Anticipated High-Lows for the Week
Nifty: High -4,220 .55 – 4,242 .85: Low -3,868 .18 – 3,901 .75
Sensex: High - 14,570 .89 – 14,584 .92: Low - 13,315 .81 – 13,386 .95
PRESENT STATUS OF THE MARKET AND FUTURE ANTICIPATION: In “Second Week of July 2007” we had clearly and specifically emphasized that next “Intermediate Down Wave” would wipe off atleast 12 % from the highest point & we maintained caution to bulls for succeeding 2 weeks specially after Sensex reached our optimistic target of 15,661 .26 which was calculated as per history of ‘Intermediate Up Waves’ within present ‘Major Bull Wave’ which started on 28th April 2003 - following is reproduced in short jist of our weekly writeups since beginning of July 2007 where we started cautioning bulls (it should be noted that on last Friday Sensex has even gone below 2006 closing level of 13,786.91 & we have mentioned in our weekly writeup of 30th July 2007 that if Sensex closes 2007 year below its opening levels of 13,827 .77 then we would change our anticipation of 2008 highs being higher than that of 2007).
EXCERPTS FROM LAST 7 WEEKS WEEKLY WRITEUPS: Week beginning 2nd July 07 :“ After 3 working days ‘present major wave up’ will equal in duration to ‘last major wave up’ after which we will be looking for additional technical indications of starting of a good ‘intermediate down correction’ ; we anticipate levels of 4,091 .58 – 4,100 .80 & 13,915 .62 – 13, 946 .79 before end Aug 2007 based or prevailing negative divergences in daily & weekly charts.(it is to be noted that in this week anticipated weekly highs were reasonably exceeded and lows were not achieved).
Week beginning 9th July 07: “Continuing the discussion started last week as to when ‘Intermediate Down Correction’ can start & upto where down move will bring indices within present long term uptrend. CLEARLY FORECASTED HERE THAT NEXT INTERMEDIATE DOWN MOVE SHOULD START FROM 15,661 .26 & LIKELY TO CORRECT 12 % FROM THE HIGHEST POINT & NEXT INTERMEDIATE DOWN MOVE SHOULD CORRECT 30 % FROM NEXT HIGH”(it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs in this week were slightly exceeded while lows were almost touched).
Week beginning 16th July 07: “Support should emerge on minor down correction from where indices should go to 4,619 .15 & 15,661 .26 by the end of First week of Aug 07 where heavy profit booking should emerge” (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs were slightly exceeded while lows were almost touched).
Week beginning 23rd July 07 (Turnaround week): “Since indices have achieved our initial anticipated up targets, bulls should play on lower volumes & expect jerky upward movement ; we are anticipating starting of ‘Intermediate Down Trend’ from next week” (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs were achieved & slightly exceeded and optimistic lows were perfectly achieved).
Week beginning 30th July 07: “Markets down and on confirmation of ‘Intermediate Sell Mode’
FIRST TARGETS : 4,275 .35 & 14,526 .44
NEXT TARGETS : 4,090 .20 & 13,946 .99
Pessimistic down levels 3,957 .15 – 3,976 .80 & 13,461 .07 – 13,799 .08”. (please note Sensex has entered this range on 17th Aug 07 ; it is to be further noted that anticipated weekly highs & lows both were achieved almost perfectly).
Preceeding week:
“Technical rally possible & after that if Sensex closes the week below 14,850 .27 with black weekly candle then down targets mentioned in last week’s weekly writeup will become valid.” (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs & lows both were achieved and exceeded by approx 1 .00 %).
Last week:“Overall it is to be noted that indices have given weekly indications of further bearishness” – final seal of “Intermediate Sell Mode” likely by Tuesday (it is to be noted that anticipated weekly highs & lows both were achieved & lows were exceeded substantially).
Now let us come to present juncture – indices have fully confirmed ‘Intermediate Sell Mode’ in remaining daily charts also (weekly confirmation had already come last week) – now next down targets are 3,800 .57 – 3,863 .98 & 13,106 .60 – 13,221 .77 which should reach latest within next 3 to 4 weeks & if Sensex closes present month below 13,499 .08 then next down targets would become 3,554 .50 – 3,617 .00 & 12,316 .10 – 12,425 .52 ; in the meantime short term rally can take indices to 4,220 .55 – 4,242 .85 & 14,570 .89 – 14,584 .92 on any good local political or international rally news where super heavy profit booking should emerge.
Every story has the other side – here it is 4,267 .15 – 4,327 .00 & 14,705 .58 – 14,896 .47 which could come only in case of a good compromise between left & right on nuclear treaty – present political dilemma only makes one wonder that after demise of ‘leftist U.S.S.R’ is it ‘Chinese Dragon’ which is having a remote control in our national politics looking at the way headlines have appeared in last week’s daily newpapers of that country.
TODAY'S TREND: Support on declines for a Technical Rally only.
2) MEDIUM TERM TREND (INTERMEDIATE) :
It has turned Down.
Last week 196 scrips have closed lower as compared to 149 scrips in the preceding week (av. fall per scrip at 5 .02% is also higher than the av. fall per scrip of 3. 28% in the preceding week) & only 32 scrips have closed higher as compared to 78 scrips in the preceding week (but av. rise per scrip at 5 .59 % is higher than the av. rise per scrip of 3 .26% in the preceding week) out of 250 scrips we follow regularly;
Last week’s A-D data is indicating that although market continues down but this kind of decline ratios with such high % profits to sellers also leads to a good intra week technical rally in majority cases as per history.
3) LONG TERM TREND (MAJOR) :
It continues up
4) REVIEW OF OUR 'ON - LINE RECOMMENDATIONS' OF LAST WEEK:
Last week on the buy side 26 trades were recommended involving positions equivalent to 61 .25 % of the capital (36 .25 % on delivery basis) and profit booking was recommended in 14 trades (which included 2 trades of earlier weeks) involving positions equivalent to 24 .94 % of the capital (14.45 % on delivery basis)
AVE POSITION PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 2.11 % of the capital (our target is 5. 00%).
AVE PROFIT PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 01.78% (our target is 3. 00 %).
BOOKED PROFIT ON THE CAPITAL = 00.53 % (our target is 2. 50%). |
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