BSEIndia: All Stock Market News: $$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter

Sunday, July 29, 2007

$$ DreamGains !! $$ Sachin Chavan Total Newsletter - 30th Jul 2007

Sachin Chavan Daily Total Newsletter - Jul 30, 2007
Tel: 022 - 25308355 Email: mail@sachinchavan.com Mobile: 098203-16390 Website: www.sachinchavan.com Please read the disclaimer at the end of this page. Read this newsletter only if you agree with it.
	Learning Center:	"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage" - Anais Nin

Part I: Market Overview & Nifty

	Overview
	The consistent advice given here for the last 3 trading sessions was for the traders to remain thin in a vulnerable overbought market. Those who heeded would have benefitted as market plunged into correction with a 4% fall on Friday.
	Deat-cat bounce off steep fall is not uncommon, but usually acts as a bull-trap. Its better to wait for the corrective forces to play themselves out completely before attempting bottom-fishing.
	With all our positions booked by 25th July, clients did not lose a single Rupee in Friday's fall. This is an important part traders forget - when to remain in cash!

	Nifty
	Current Spot Rate	Supports		Resistances		Trend
	Current Spot Rate	S2	S1	R1	R2	MT	ST
	4445	4310	4380	4650	4770	Bullish	Corr Dn

	MT = Medium Term (3-12 weeks forecast); ST = Short Term (1-14 days forecast)

	Out-performers (for upto next 3 months)						Under-Performers (for upto next 3 months)
	Media, Cap Goods, Banks, Power						Tech Majors, Refining majors, Sugar
	Out-performer' dooes not necessarily mean bullish, but that it can perform better than the overall market. 'Similarly, 'Under-performer' does not necessarily mean bearish, but that it can perform worse than the overall market.

	Market Barometer (for short term only)
	Based on the prevailing market trend, this section mentions to what extent it is preferable to hold long positions, short positions or remain univested for a short-term trader at this time.

	Short term position:		Long (plus)			Short (minus)			Uninvested
	Break-up:		*Low*			*None*			*High*


Media Schedule:		Wed, Jul 18 11:00am-12:00pm: 'Sauda Apka', CNBC Awaaz
		Wed, Jul 18 09:40am-10:30am: Zee Business
		Wed, Jul 18 03:00pm-03:40pm: '2.30 Factor', NDTV Profit

	Click here for Details and Registration for Paid Daily Newsletter


	Salient News (from public domain)
p	Ranbaxy, GSK settle Valtrex US patent case.
p	Govt speeds up the process of certification of foreign cement manufacturers.
p	IVR Prime IPO subscribed over two times.
p	Elder Pharmaceuticals acquires 20% stake in Neutra Health in UK.
p	Tata Indicom slashes ISD rates to Rs 1.99/min.
p	NIIT to train IT manpower in Malaysia.
p	Reliance plans $2.5 b investment in fertilizer plant.
p	Pidilite acquires Nebula Trading in UAE.

Part II: Equity and Derivative Break-outs (for 1-4 weeks)

	c Patel Engg completed target (483) amounting to 6.9% profit in 13 days. c.
	c Blue Star Inds completed target (264) amounting to 6.5% profit in 16 days. c.
	c Pantaloon derivative yielded 23% return on margin capital in 1 day. Equivalent profit per lot = Rs 12000. c.
	c BRFL stopped at 218, equivalent to loss of 12% c.
	The following scrips have provided short-term breakouts at the points mentioned. Likely target/s and stoplosses commensurate with the breakout are also given below. These are based only on technical analysis and are for informational purpose alone.
	A breakout can be either bullish or bearish. Bullish breakouts would have targets above and stoplosses below and vice-versa for bearish breakouts. The mode tells whether the breakout is more suitable for equity (delivery-based) or derivatives trading.

	Scrip	Break-out Point			Likely Targets		Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	Scrip	Type	Date	Price	T1	T2	Stop loss	Current Price	Targets Completed	Mode
	None
	Updated levels are highlighted in yellow. All prices mentioned are NSE equity prices (even for derivative breakouts)

Part III: ASI Analysis of Major 50 Scrips


	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Table

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) is a technical indicator created by the analyst to indicate the bullishness/flatness/bearishness of any scrip. ASI values for 50 major scrips are updated in the table everyday.
	Read below to understand ASI and what purpose it serves.

	Description of ASI ASI, the forward looking proprietary indicator, represents absolute strength of a scrip. There are two ASI's:							Indicative Key to Use ASI = 70-100 -> Bullish ASI = 60-70 -> Mildly Bullish
	- Medium term (3-12 weeks forecast) and - Short term (1-14 days forecast), plotted in the grid above							ASI = 40-60 -> Flat ASI = 30-40 -> Mildly Bearish ASI = 0-30 -> Bearish
	Note1: ASI < 30% does not mean 'oversold' but indicates weakness (fall expected ), and ASI > 70 does not mean 'overbought' but indicates strength (rise expected)

	How to Use
	The probability of success of a new Long (plus) position is better if MT trend is Bullish AND ST trend has just turned Bullish (underlined as Bullish). New long positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is overbought/ correcting down/bearish.
	The probability of success of a new Short (minus) position is better if MT trend is Bearish *AND* ST trend has just turned Bearish (underlined as Bearish ). New short positions are undesirable when market (Nifty) is oversold/correcting up/bullish.
	The rates mentioned below are 'equity' rates and not 'futures' rates.

	Scrip	CMP	Medium Term (MT)				Short Term (ST)
	Scrip	CMP	ASI	Trend	Target		ASI	Trend	Target
	Nifty	4445	98	Bullish	4900		39	Corr Dn	-
	ACC	1000	64	Bullish	1180		34	Corr Dn	-
	Bajaj Auto	2315	31	Flat	2100-2675		49	Flat	2200-2440
	BPCL	311	21	Bearish	280		19	Bearish	295
	Bharti Airtel	893	95	Bullish	960		34	Corr Dn	-
	BHEL	1661	88	Bullish	1950		41	Corr Dn	-
	Century Text	666	81	Bullish	825		24	Corr Dn	-
	Cipla	188	26	Bearish	175		11	Ovrsold	-
	Dabur	101	64	Bullish	115		31	Flat	100-106
	Dr Reddy's	640	45	Flat	550-810		7	Bearish	625
	GAIL	326	90	Bullish	360		44	Flat	310-340
	Grasim	2862	71	Bullish	3220		44	Flat	2800-3070
	Guj Ambuja	125	67	Bullish	148		31	Corr Dn	-
	HCL Tech	311	57	Flat	285-360		10	Bearish	305
	HDFC Bank	1169	83	Bullish	1280		36	Corr Dn	-
	HDFC	1908	83	Bullish	2250		36	Corr Dn	-
	Hero Honda	684	33	Bearish	615		49	Flat	660-720
	Hind Lever	196	33	Flat	175-240		44	Flat	190-210
	Hind Petro	257	21	Bearish	235		36	Flat	250-275
	Hindalco	173	64	Bullish	210		57	Flat	160-190
	I - Flex	2228	67	Flat	1925-2525		17	Ovrsold	-
	ICICI Bank	914	76	Bullish	1015		13	Corr Dn	-
	IDBI	109	81	Bullish	130		40	Flat	105-122
	Indian Hotels	138	57	Flat	130-160		10	Bearish	130
	IPCL	369	95	Bullish	420		57	Ovrbot	-
	Infosys	2008	60	Flat	1820-2280		64	Bullish	2100
	ITC	172	50	Flat	145-195		89	Ovrbot	-
	Jet Airways	719	37	Flat	700-950		14	Bearish	700
	L&T	2420	88	Bullish	2800		39	Ovrbot	-
	M&M	780	50	Flat	590-860		41	Flat	735-840
	Maruti	830	48	Flat	720-860		53	Flat	810-855
	Nalco	284	86	Bullish	330		39	Flat	280-300
	ONGC	904	67	Bullish	1040		30	Corr Dn	-
	PNB	500	55	Flat	440-570		13	Ovrsold	-
	Ranbaxy	375	33	Bearish	330		74	Corr Up	-
	Rel. Capital	1194	98	Bullish	1340		43	Flat	1130-1275
	Rel. Energy	763	81	Bullish	860		64	Ovrbot	-
	Reliance Ind	1868	98	Bullish	1980		63	Ovrbot	-
	Satyam	473	81	Bullish	530		20	Corr Dn	-
	SCI	209	95	Bullish	230		33	Corr Dn	-
	SBI	1499	88	Bullish	1650		31	Corr Dn	-
	Steel Authority	148	95	Bullish	170		30	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Chem	250	79	Bullish	280		36	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Steel	652	86	Bullish	740		30	Corr Dn	-
	Tata Motors	699	31	Flat	660-920		27	Bearish	670
	Tata Power	702	93	Bullish	840		73	Bullish	745
	TCS	1153	50	Flat	1050-1250		24	Flat	1120-1200
	VSNL	455	76	Bullish	525		19	Corr Dn	-
	Wipro	493	40	Flat	435-630		7	Bearish	480
	Zee Telefilms	331	100	Bullish	410		40	Flat	305-350
\

	Absolute Strength Index (ASI) Plot
	Click here to learn the stock codes used in the plot below.
	Note: Scrip name in Red Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has reduced substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Green Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has increased substantially from yesterday. Scrip name in Black Font (eg. ACC) means ST ASI has remained same



Disclosure:
The analyst holds long term investments in various Reliance group companies (including Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Reliance Energy, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Communications).
The analyst has business relations with Reliance Money, a Reliance Capital company. The analyst and his dependents have no positions in other stocks/futures.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter and the opinions/break-outs mentioned therein are for informational purpose only and not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation of an offer to any person with respect to the purchase or sale of the stocks/futures discussed in this report. I, Sachin Chavan (author), do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient & reader of this material should rely on their own investigations and take professional advice. Subscribers, recipients and readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and shall not hold the Author liable for any investment decisions/ actions or any other action (including abstaining from action) based on the Content provided. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information provided is based on the theory of Technical Analysis. All levels mentioned, including break-out, target, stoploss are only informative. Trading and investment in stock market is risky and volatile. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the author. - Sachin Chavan