BSEIndia: All Stock Market News

Monday, January 12, 2009

DG - FW: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated January 12, 2009

From: The Sharekhan Research Team [mailto:marketwatch@research.sharekhan.com]
Sent: 12 January 2009 16:07
To: The Sharekhan Research Team
Subject: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated January 12, 2009

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January 12, 2009

Index Performance

Index	Sensex	Nifty
Open	9,316.33	2,868.85
High	9,331.13	2,869.20
Low	9,024.45	2,748.55
Today's Cls	9,110.05	2,773.10
Prev Cls	9,406.47	2,873.00
Change	-296.42	-99.90
% Change	-3.15	-3.48

Market Indicators

Top Movers (Group A)
Company	Price (Rs)	% chg
Gainers
GMR Infra	73.45	10.45
Mundra Port	370.20	9.64
Jubilant ORG	134.80	7.03
Bajaj Finserv	188.40	4.99
Godrej Consumer	133.00	3.74
Losers
Sintex Industries	160.25	-17.33
Jindal Steel	822.90	-10.46
Wipro	227.35	-9.30
Indiabulls Real Estate	104.55	9.05
Bharat Forge	81.45	8.84

Market Statistics
-	BSE	NSE
Advances	824	341
Declines	1,613	828
Unchanged	85	48
Volume(Nos)	28.45cr	67.28cr

Market Commentary

Free fall continues

Selling pressure in frontline counters saw indices dip for the third straight session.

Nervousness gripped the market for the third consecutive day, as selling pressure since early trades saw the index remain weak all through the trading

session. Though the Sensex resumed at 9,316, around 90 points below its previous close and moved up to touch an early high of 9,331 on selective buying, the market soon snapped gains due to selling pressure. As correction continued unabated, the index tumbled below the 9,100 mark to touch an intra-day low of 9,024 by the end of day. While the market languished in the negative territory all through the noon trades, Sensex signed off the session 296 points lower at 9,110. Nifty also ended 2,773, about 100 points lower.

Market breadth was weak. Of the 2,522 stocks traded on BSE, 1,613 stocks declined, whereas 824 stocks advanced. Eighty-five stocks ended unchanged. All sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Metal fell 5.62%, BSE Realty dipped 4.87%, BSE IT shed 3.80% and BSE Power was down 3.67%.

Among draggers, Wipro dropped 10.63% at Rs224, Reliance Infrastructure shed 6.94% at Rs480.45, Tata Steel tumbled 6.62% at Rs200.30, Ranbaxy Laboratories declined 5.46% at Rs206.95 and DLF was down 5.45% at Rs205.75. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd at Rs1,344.15, State Bank of India at Rs1156.85, Sterlite Industries at Rs260, Hindalco Industries at Rs50.15 were down around 4-5% each. However only Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and JP Associates managed to close with a gain of 1-2% each.

Metal stocks came under sharp hammering. Jindal Steel slumped 10.46% at Rs822.90, SAIL lost 8.08% at Rs72.80, Tata Steel declined 6.62% at Rs200.30 and Gujarat NRE was down 6.36% at Rs28.70. Sesa Goa, Hindustan Zinc, Sterlite Industries, Hindalco Industries, Jai Corp and JSW Steel dipped 3-5% each.

Over 5.31 crore shares Satyam Computer Services changed hands on the BSE followed by Reliance Natural Resources (1.83 crore shares), Unitech (1.73 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (1.40 crore shares) and DLF (0.78 crore shares).

European Indices at 16:00 IST on 12-01-2009

Index	Level	Change (pts)	Change (%)
FTSE 100 Index	4448.29	-0.25	-0.01
CAC 40 Index	3286.83	-12.67	-0.38
DAX INDEX	4765.05	-19.09	-0.40

Asian Indices at close on 12-01-2009

Index	Level	Change (pts)	Change (%)
Nikkei 225	8836.80	-	-
Hang Seng Index	13971.00	-406.44	-2.83
Kospi Index	1156.75	-24.21	-2.05
Straits Times Index	1776.25	-29.77	-1.65
Jakarta Composite Index	2768.27	10.86	0.39

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Sunday, January 11, 2009

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Saturday, January 10, 2009

Money Times Jan 12-19 2009

Page 1

A Time Communications Publication

Caution: Please note that your copy/access to our website is for your exclusive use only. Any attempt to share your access to our

website or forwarding your copy to a non-subscriber will disqualify your membership and we will be compelled to stop your supply

and forfeit your subscription thereafter without any refund to you.

A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION

VOL. XVIII No. 9

Monday, January 12 - 18, 2009

Pages 19 Rs.12

Satyam destroys sentiments

By Sanjay R. Bhatia

The markets struggled to move above the key resistance levels of

3150 last week. The news of the Satyam scam destroyed the market

sentiment as the markets tanked on the back of huge selling

pressure. Traders and speculators were seen unwinding their long

positions and going short. Incidentally, FIIs who were net buyers

turned net sellers after the Satyam episode. Mutual Funds, too,

remained net sellers. The volumes recorded have been higher than

the previous week, which is a negative sign for a market in falling

conditions.

The global cues have remained mixed. The US economy continued

to emanate negative signals while crude oil price remained

volatile. On the domestic front, inflation fell to 5.91% from 6.38%

during the week ended 27 December 2008, a 10-month low helped

by across-the-board dip in prices. The FIIs have turned net sellers since the Satyam scan and the markets lack confidence.

Further selling pressure will be witnessed if Q3 results turn out to be poorer than expected. In such a case, the markets

could test the October 2008 low and even breach them. Everything now depends on the Q3 results.

In the meanwhile, the markets would continue to take cues from the global markets and crude oil prices. The overall

market sentiment is likely to remain negative. The FII purchases are likely to remain low and it is important that the

mutual funds support the markets at lower levels.

Technically, the markets are on the verge of testing the October lows. On the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the

10000, 10630 and 11500 levels. On the downside, the Sensex seeks support at the 8929 and 7685 levels. On the upside, the

Nifty faces resistance at the 2967, 3077 and 3150-3200 levels, while 2866 and 2632 are its important support levels.

Investors are advised to stay in cash and avoid buying for now.

Lessons from Satyam

By Fakhri H. Sabuwala

What a shame it was that Satyam Computer Services, an IT software leader, has gone bust. An implosion of sorts on the

lives of the Worldcom and Enron meltdown in USA. It is indeed shocking that a company which boasts of a multiple

listing, a world-class auditor, over 50,000 staff members, a long list of global clients, suppliers and shareholders could so

easily report a financial fraud over the last couple of years and create a crater of Rs.7000 cr. in its books. A write-off of

over Rs.1,00,000 cr. in the market cap in a single session and a washout of 78% in the share price of Satyam, not to

mention the 90% crash in its ADRs at the New York Stock Exchange.

Chairman, Rajalingam Raju's 'deep regret and burden of conscience' letter has shocked every corporate chief. It has left

everyone spellbound, shocked and in pain and serves as a warning bell for other managements. This is not a case of

BAZAR DOT COM

Click here to enlarge

Page 2

A Time Communications Publication

failure of corporate governance but deliberate and willful deception. "It's important to remember that one Satyam does

not make an entire Indian software industry. I believe this is an isolated case and want foreign investors to realise that

there are many honest managements and good companies in this country. While what has happened at Satyam is totally

regrettable, I believe that it does not represent India, it just represents one individual and one company" says Mr.

Narayan Murthy. The wishful thinking at the market would want Mr. Narayan Murthy of Infosys to step in as a caretaker

and salvage the fate of Satyam employees

and stakeholders. The government may also think in this direction.

The lessons that the stock market teaches are worth noting down. So far, the markets worlds over micro focus on the

quantity of earnings, margins, EPS and their multiples. Hardly did anyone, be it HNIs or retail investors, pay heed to the

quality of earnings. But the market movements on Wednesday, 7 January 2008, distinctly spell out the relative

performance differential among the scrips. Even on this day when Satyam lost 79% or the Sensex lost 750 points, there

were the scrips that withstood this tsunami and declined only marginally or were a shade ahead of the previous day.

Clearly, the market displayed that companies, wherein the trust and confidence in the management was high,

commanded higher P/E and companies with shades of grey in their earnings or balance sheet lost more and were locked

in lower circuit, whenever such locks were applicable. Such discriminating behaviour by investors in general speaks a lot

about their maturity. The positive trend in HUL, Infosys,

Wipro, Sun, Grasim, Maruti, Dabur, Sintex etc. vis-à-vis the negative trend in Satyam, Suzlon, RCom, DLF, Unitech,

Maruti, RIL, ICICI Bank etc. sums up the mood and highlights the lessons learnt.

Can you believe that of all the many mangers, there is one Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley who till date has not

touched Satyam even with a barge pole? The investigating officers need to learn from him. What did he see in its balance

sheet or in Raju that the whole world did not? Do you know his one and only rule of investment is 'not to lose money'?

How does this saga end? Well it's too early to take a call on this. But what is practically possible is to find a suitor for

Satyam's business, sans the liability and get the business going under new and able promoters. By doing so, the work

force and shareholders may still have faith in a tomorrow, if for nothing but to vindicate Raju's favourite author, Isaac

Asimov, who says 'In life, unlike chess, the game continues after the checkmate!'

Alternate weekly swings possible

By Hitendra Vasudeo

A back to back tug-of-war between the bulls and bears every

alternate week for the last 3 weeks has been the order of trading. For

the week ended on 26/12/2008, the Sensex had formed an Engulfing

Bear candlestick pattern. For the week ended on 02/01/09, the

Sensex had formed a Piercing Line candlestick pattern and last week

ended on 09/01/09, the Sensex formed a Dark Cloud Cover pattern.

A tug-of-war has continued for the last 3 weeks in the band of 10945

to 9162. The pendulum of trading sentiments has shifted every week

over the last 3 weeks.

Last week, the Sensex opened at 10109.67 attained a high at 10469.72

and fell to a low of 9250.82 before it finally closed the week at

9406.47 and thereby showed a net fall of 551 points on a week-to-

week basis. The weekly resistance levels were crossed during the

week but they failed to sustain at the higher range and closed lower.

The low of 9161 registered on 02/01/09 is important as it is the low

of the Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A fall and close below 9161

can take can take the prices down to test the lower range of 8701-

8316. The Dark Cloud Cover pattern suggests that the general

strategy would be to sell on a rise to higher resistance level. Weekly

resistance will be at 9709-10167-10469. Weekly support will be at

8948-8701-8316.

The long-term snap shot RBI Securities Index needs to be looked at

when the BSE Sensex was not available. The data available is till

1999. We continue with the BSE Sensex from 1999 till date. The

Circled marked Wave 1 and Wave 2 is shown in the chart 1. The

Wave 3 circled got terminated in 2008 which is shown in Chart 2.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Click here to enlarge

Page 3

A Time Communications Publication

The fall from the 2008 peak to the recent correction level of 7697 is the Wave 4 circled marked in progress is shown in

Chart 3. The entire period is from 1961 to 2009.

The rise from 2001 to 2008 was part of the 5

Wave marked in the square box, which is part of the entire Wave 3 marked

in circles from 1975 to 2008. The continuity is from Chart 1 to Chart 2 and then to Chart 3 for the latest fall from the peak

of 2008.

Sensex Wave Analysis

Normal Count-

Wave I-2594 to 3758 

Wave II-3758 to 2904 

Wave III-2904 to 12671 

Internals are as follows:

Wave 1- 2904 to 6249 

Wave 2-6249 to 4227 

Wave 3-4227 to 12671 

Wave IV- 12671 to 8799 

Wave V- 8799 to 21206 

Further counts are marked and Shown in Chart 3.

Wave A-21206 to 14677 

Wave B-14677 to 17735 

Wave C- 17735 to 7697  (not yet complete)

Wave 1- 17735 to 12514 

Wave 2-12514 to 15579 

Wave 3-15579 to 7697 

(not yet complete)

Internals of Wave 3

Wave 1-15579 to 14002 

Wave 2-14002 to 15107 

Wave 3-15107 to 7697 

Wave 4-7697 to 10469

Wave a- 7697 to 10945 

Wave b- 10945 to 8316 

Wave c- 8316 to 10469 

(not yet complete)

If the Sensex falls and

closes below 9162, then

wave c completion gets

confirmed. In that case,

the Sensex can slide down

towards 8316-7697 at least

which could stretch down

to 6250-6150. If the Sensex

crosses and closes above

10945, then the wave

structure

count

mentioned above may not

be valid. In that case, we

could have completed the

fall at 8316 with a

possible Wave 5 failure.

In such a situation, the

entire rise from 8316

would be treated as a

new upmove first to look

for a pull-back of the fall

from 21206 to 8316 for a

Wave B. The entire fall

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS

Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy

with what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to

Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value

then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal

of the up Trend.

Last

Center

Relative Weekly

Close

Point

Strength Reversal Trend

Scrips

Level 1 Level 2

Level 3 Level 4

Value

Date

Stop

Loss

Buy

Price

Buy

Price

Book

Profit

Book

Profit

CANARA BANK

206.20

167.0

193.2

206.5

219.5

245.7

67.0

195.7

19/12/08

INDIAN OIL CORP

435.00

387.7

417.0

428.2

446.3

475.6

66.6

425.8

19/12/08

BPCL

380.80

329.5

360.5

371.3

391.5

422.5

65.7

376.0

07/11/08

ORIENTAL BANK

165.70

140.4

158.2

168.6

176.1

193.9

65.3

158.8

05/12/08

BHEL

1417.00 1248.7

1363.7

1425.3

1478.7

1593.7

64.8

1390.8

02/01/09

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS

Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell

with what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to

Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal

Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly

reversal of the Down Trend.

Last

Center

Relative

Weekly

Down

Close

Point

Strength Reversal Trend

Scrips

Level 1 Level 2

Level 3 Level 4

Value

Date

Cover

Short

Cover

Short

Sell

Price

Sell

Price

Stop

Loss

JINDAL STAINLESS 33.95

22.1

30.8

36.2

39.4

48.1

25.40

35.92

09/01/09

ABAN OFFSHORES 682.00

456.0

620.0

722.0

784.0

948.0

29.03

710.75

09/01/09

SUZLON ENERGY

52.75

18.4

42.5

56.3

66.6

90.7

32.88

58.10

09/01/09

NDTV

100.25

51.8

87.3

109.9

122.8

158.3

33.21

114.10

09/01/09

PUNJ LLOYD

115.20

30.9

91.8

129.4

152.7

213.6

33.48

144.89

09/01/09

Click here to enlarge

Page 4

A Time Communications Publication

from 21206 to 8316 would be called Wave A.

Weekly resistance will be at 10188-10298 and 11205. Weekly support will be at 9730, 9390 and 9162.

Yearly Outlook for 2009

As per the Yearly levels,

Yearly Level 2 will be at

4294 and Yearly Centre

Point will be at 12850. The

Yearly level 3 will be at

18000.

Conclusion

The downside doors will

get closed only if the

Sensex crosses 10945.

Strategy for the week

Overall strategy remains to exit long positions and sell on rally from the current level to 10469-10945. Lower range of

8316-7697 can be expected if the weekly close is below 9162.

* L&T may takeover Satyam given its recent 3.84% acquisition in the company.

* Narayan Murthy of Infosys or Azim Premji of Wipro may be roped in to rehabilitate Satyam's business model.

* The Satyam episode teaches investors to view companies with their promoters' political leanings or connections with a

sense of fear and hesitancy.

* Tata stocks and PSU shares may be the safest bets in such horrifying times.

* The government needs to address several sections in the new Indian Companies Act to combat frauds and lapses by the

promoters, directors, auditors, bankers etc.

* If Ramalingam Raju's claim of not having made a single penny is true, can he explain why he went so far in the

manipulative act?

* With the new awareness about company managements and their statements, both the Reliance scrips, Suzlon, ICICI

Bank, DLF, Unitech etc. will no longer find it easy to sway investors.

* With a likely EPS of Rs.34 in FY09, the shares of Tilaknagar Industries are an excellent buy at a P/E of 2.1.

* KNR Construction and Supreme Infrastructure are safe buys in the low priced constructions category says the market

grapevines.

* Greenply is setting up a medium density fibre unit and a lamination unit at a cost of Rs.370 cr. The share is a good long-

term buy.

* Deep Industries has been awarded a 789 sq. km. block at Satpura - Rewa under NELP VII. Buy for long-term.

* Jupiter Bioscience's acquisition of a high-end GMP approved plant of Merck in Switzerland gives it a competitive edge

in the global peptide market. The share is a good long-term buy.

* An analyst strongly recommends Gulf Oil Corp because of its huge land bank valued at Rs.1800 cr. at current

depressed prices, which works out to Rs.252 per share. Its property development activities would boost its revenue &

profitability in coming years.

* Ind Swift Ltd.'s state-of-the-art manufacturing plant at Jawaharpur (Punjab) has won the approval of MHRA (UK),

TGA (Australia), WHO (Geneva) and others. With a major expansion of Rs.100 cr. the share can fetch handsome gains in

the long-term.

* GSFC is recommended as major expansion & diversification is expected to boost its bottomline. Besides, the value of

its investments (Rs.99 cr.) in GNFC and Gujarat Alkali etc. has already has grown to Rs.250 cr.

* Circles close to the management of Harrison Malayalam are active in the counter as it is faring exceedingly well.

* An analyst strongly recommends Zuari Industries as its faring well and its JV Paradip Phosphate is likely to announce

bumper profits.

* Infosys, Wipro, TCS and Oracle are safe investments in the IT sector in view of high quality corporate governance.

* DSP Merrill Lynch was said to be in talks with TCS to buy out Satyam. Later, it withdrew on account of irregularities.

Was it not aware of the irregularities when it was pitching for TCS?

By Saarthi

3i Infotech Ltd. (Code: 532628)

Rs.34.50

PUNTER'S PICKS

Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target which ever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery

based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.

Scrips

BSE

CODE

Last

Close

Buy Price

Buy On

Rise

Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2

Risk

Reward

ALFA/LAVAL (INDIA)

505885

978.00

935.00

983.00

920.00

1021.9

1084.9

0.76

GUJARAT GAS CO.

523477

239.70

231.00

245.00

206.35

268.9

307.5

0.88

JAIN IRRIGATION SYST

500219

361.65

347.05

366.30

325.00

391.8

433.1

0.82

UTTAM GALVA STEELS

513216

29.80

28.80

31.85

25.30

35.9

42.5

1.36

TOWER TALK

BEST BETS

Page 5

A Time Communications Publication

Established in 1993 by ICICI Bank, 3i Infotech Ltd. (3i) has progressed over the years from a back office processing unit of

the ICICI group to a technology company providing IT services and solutions to over 600 clients in over 50 countries

through 24 offices worldwide and 10 development centres in India. In fact, it has emerged as the fourth largest Indian

software products company offering a comprehensive range of software products & solutions primarily for banking,

insurance, capital markets, mutual funds, telecom, manufacturing, retail & distribution industries. In addition, it offers a

broad range of software services such as custom software development, IT consulting, enterprise application integration

(EAI), business process outsourcing (BPO), managed IT Services, and specialised services such as product re-engineering,

compliance consultancy, data warehousing, business intelligence etc. Besides, 3i is recognised among the major national

players in the e-Governance consultancy space in India. Importantly, the company derives 50:50 revenues from products

and services which differentiate it from other IT companies. However, its revenue mix is now skewed more towards

services with BPO being the major growth driver. Premia, Kastle, Amlock, iBoss, Data Scan, Awacs, Mfund, Veda, Xroadz

etc. are a few of its popular software products for core banking, insurance, stock exchange surveillance, treasury, risk &

wealth management, mutual funds etc. It also has an ERP product suite, providing solutions for the retail, manufacturing,

distribution, trading, fashion, and automotive, pharmaceutical and chemical industries. At the same time, the company

provides complete end-to-end outsourcing solutions to various industries mainly in the domestic market and specialises

in non-voice based BPO services. Due to its derisking business strategy, the company is not dependent on any one

segment and has a well-diversified revenue model. Presently, banking products constitutes 12%, insurance products 9%,

capital market products 11%, ERP 3%, technology services 33% and BPO/Transactions processing constitutes the rest

32%. 3i's quality certifications include SEI CMMI Level 5 for software business and ISO 9001:2000 for infrastructure

services and BPO operations.

Geographically, 3i derives around 34% revenue from South Asia, 29% from USA, 15% from Western Europe, 14% from

Middle East & Africa and the balance 8% from the Asia Pacific region. Apart from the ICICI group being its largest

customer, 3i boasts of serving international biggies like Prudential Assurance, Finansa, AIG, Emirates Bank, RAK Bank,

HP, GSK, Al Ansari, Solidarity Islamic Insurance, Commercial America Insurance, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank,

Pidilite Industries etc. In order to beat the competition and grow at a rapid pace, the company is betting high on the

inorganic route and has adopted an acquisition-led strategy to acquire new capabilities and foray into new geographies.

In the last 2-3 years, 3i has made dozens of acquisitions globally as well as domestically. It has more than 50 subsidiaries,

step down subsidiaries and associates in total. While acquiring, the challenges are in assimilation, integration and

deriving benefits of synergies, in which 3i has been quite efficient.

On the organic growth side, 3i set up its first International Data Centre (IDC) in Chennai last year, wherein it offers

managed hosting services for applications and disaster recovery solutions. It is also in the midst of opening 255 new

service centres in tier-II and tier-III cities to help banks and financial institutions decrease the processing time for various

back office operations. These centres, which will constitute a 'hub and spoke' model, will be staffed by experts who will

specialise in transactional services outsourcing related to processing credit cards, insurance applications, contact point

verification, soft collections, cheque clearing services, reconciliations, etc. On the other hand, the company has bagged a

huge contract from the Central Government for setting up over 12,000 kiosks, spread across various states in India, for

providing citizen services centers to be used for dispensing G2C(Government to Citizen) and B2C (Business to

Customer) services. The pricing model for this

e-governance project is based on the

frequency of each service transactions taking

place across kiosks. Recently, 3i made a

strategic tie-up with ICICI Lombard, Airtel

and Max New York Life to open 12,500 retail

stores in rural areas to offer a bouquet of retail

services in general insurance, telecom and life

insurance sectors respectively. The company

may invest Rs.200 cr. for the complete project

and would earn commission on a per

transaction basis.

Currently, its order book stands at about

Rs.1300 cr. comprising about 40% from

product business, 38% from IT and the

balance from the transaction business.

Importantly, the 3i business has been affected

to a very limited extent by the turmoil in USA

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Page 6

A Time Communications Publication

and bankruptcy. However if the world economy continues to be in recession, it will slowdown the company's future

growth rate. To summarise, 3i has a well-diversified and a de-risked business model in terms of offerings

(products/services of nearly 1:1 with coverage of entire BFSI spectrum), geography (no country > 30% of revenues) and

customers (ICICI Bank and other Top 10 clients' concentration has been on the decline). To fund its various acquisitions,

the company raised nearly Rs.175 cr. and Rs.400 cr. in April 2007 & July 2007 respectively through the FCCB routes, which

is yet to be converted into equity. After reporting an EPS of Rs.14 for FY08 and encouraging performance for H1FY09 on a

consolidated basis, 3i is all poised to end FY09 with a total revenue of Rs.2100 cr. and bottomline of Rs.200 cr. This

translates into an EPS of Rs.15 on its current equity of Rs.131 cr. Considering the CMP, the bond holder may not opt for

conversion and the whole FCCB may come up for redemption in 2012. From its high of Rs.160 in January 2008, the scrip

has fallen by almost 80% and is now available at an attractive valuation. Despite the company having nearly Rs.2000 cr. as

debt (incl. FCCB) on its book, investors are recommended to buy it at current levels as the scrip can easily appreciate by

50% within 9-12 months.

IMP Powers Ltd. (Code: 517571)

Rs.47.50

Established in 1961, IMP Power Ltd. (IMP) manufactures the entire range of power & distribution transformers, electrical

& digital measuring instruments, testing equipments, test benches etc. It specialises in HV & EHV power, distribution,

special purpose, furnace, thyristor duty transformers & reactors ranging from 10 KVA to 150 MVA upto 220 kV class,

which is a very wide range and meets all the requirements of its customers under one roof. Being among the oldest

players and a pioneer in the power equipment segment, it boasts of a rich experience of almost 5 decades. It is an

approved vendor to almost all State Electricity Boards, major turnkey EPC contractors, big corporate houses and even few

international majors. IMP has been supplying its transformers to PSUs like MSEB, RRVPNL, APTRANSCO, GEB, MPEB,

BEST, NTPC, Power Grid etc and to leading private players including L&T, BHEL, Reliance, Crompton Greaves, IVRCL,

Jyoti Structures, Siemens, ABB, Kalpataru, NTPC, KEC, Nagarjuna, Tata Power and many more. It exports its products to

UK, New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia, Cameroon, Dubai, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Jordan, Nepal, Bangladesh

etc. for quite some time. However due to the robust domestic demand, it derived only 6% revenue through exports in

FY08. In short, it is among the few companies catering to all three sectors i.e. public, private & exports.

IMP has two factories – one at Mumbai and the other at Silvassa. Its 5 acre Silvassa facility had a total installed capacity of

3600 MVA. But a couple of months back, it expanded the production capacity to 7000 MVA. This expansion has propelled

IMP into the top 10 EHV and Power Transformers manufacturing companies in India. Importantly, it is the only

transformer company in the zero sales tax zone enjoying 15 years (till 2012) sales tax holiday for its Silvassa unit.

Secondly, it has backward integrated through manufacturing of OLTC & RTCC in-house emerging as one of the lowest

cost manufacturers of transformers. These are one of the critical components for manufacture of transformers. On the

other hand, the company has also upgraded its Kandivali plant to manufacture the complete range of analog meters such

as ammeter, voltmeter frequency meter, dynamometer type watt meter, power factor meter, phase sequence indicator,

KVA Meter etc. in addition to high end meters like maximum demand indicator, trivector meter, multifunctional and

kWh meters. It has also recently launched 96 sq. mm. size electronic counter & digital display energy meters with pulse

output as well as with communication ports which are in huge demand in the market. Besides, it has also developed a

new family of products viz. Transducers, which will be launched shortly.

As a result of the government's huge plan to generate and distribute power as also substantially reduce T&D losses in the

next decade, the demand for transformers will be buoyant in the next decade. Additional demand for transformers is

estimated at 150,000 MVA per annum. In addition, another 20,000 MVA is expected from the replacement market.

Thirdly, with the growing transformer market in South Africa, Middle East and Europe, the export of energy efficient

transformers with lower losses and low noise levels is also growing at a healthy pace. With the sharp fall in copper prices,

the realization price per transformer has also fallen proportionately. For year ending 30 June 2008, IMP registered 30%

rise in sales to Rs.134 cr. and 25% increase in PAT to Rs.9.40 cr. thereby posting an EPS of Rs.14. To fund its expansion

plan, the company has issued 11.80 lakh compulsorily convertible preference shares to be converted into equity by March

2009 at Rs.161 per share. At the same time, it also issued 7 lakh warrants (at Rs.161 only) out of which 4.50 lakh warrants

are yet to be converted. On the back of excellent performance for Q1FY09, IMP can clock a turnover of Rs.200 cr. with net

profit of Rs.11.50 cr. for FY09. This works out to an EPS of Rs.14 on its diluted equity of Rs.18.20 cr. Investors are

recommended to buy at current levels as the share price can easily appreciate 50% within a year.

Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas: Attractive prospects

By Devdas Mogili

Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas Exploration Services Ltd. (SVOGESL) is a 20 year old New Delhi based company established in 1989.

It is the largest onshore integrated service provider with market leadership in seismic surveys, seismic data interpretation,

ANALYSIS

Page 7

A Time Communications Publication

deep drilling, work over operations, CBM development etc. The company offers turnkey solutions for onshore oil & gas

exploration and developmental work.

SVOGESL offers a wide spectrum of services in the field of oil and natural gas exploration and production. They range

from shot hole drilling and seismic surveying to directional drilling, well development, down hole operations,

engineering and logistics. Mr. Prem Singhee is the chairman and managing director of the company.

The company entered the capital market with an IPO in 1990 and commenced operations in the same year. It specialises in

every area of onshore and offshore operations as well as natural gas compression & allied services.

SVOGESL was into seismic services but in 1999 it diversified into offshore activities by purchasing and operating three

offshore logistic vessels. Natural gas compression operations of the company started in 2000.

In 2004, it forayed into the global market and became an EPC contractor for GGS, and in 2005, the Oman operations of the

company commenced.

In 2006, SVOGESL entered into coal bed methane (CBM) business and purchased another offshore logistic vessel to

increase its offshore fleet. In April 2007, ONGC forged a service contract for the development of onshore marginal fields

with the company. In December 2007, Oil India gave SVOGESL a contract worth Rs.261 cr. for charter hire of 4 rigs of

1500 HP/2000 HP for a period of two years at various locations.

The company has ventured into high-tech integrated services like directional drilling. This large contract with integrated

well services has given a tremendous boost to its new initiatives and will significantly increase its revenues from

integrated services, which is a high margin job.

Completed Projects: During FY08, the company successfully completed various projects like Workover, Deep Drilling,

Seismic Acquisitions, Gas Compressors, Crew Boats etc. Further, it also commenced integrated services like Directional

Drilling.

New Projects: The company also started a prestigious CBM project for ONGC at Bokaro in Jharkhand, which is the first of

its kind turnkey integrated project. A US $200 million project is being implemented in consortium with Express Drilling,

USA, and MECL, Nagpur.

Orders: In August 2008, the company secured a contract worth Rs.1610 cr. from ONGC to deploy 8 onshore deep drilling

rigs on an integrated well completion basis for its Tripura, Sivasagar and Rajahmundry assets for a period of three years.

With this contract, the company's order backlog stands at over Rs.4500 cr. executable over a period of three years except

the PDO Oman order of Rs.800 cr. which is executable in 11 years.

Performance: SVOGESL posted highly encouraging results for FY08. Its revenue increased to Rs.574.55 cr. registering an

increase of about 96.12% with a net profit of Rs.92.26 cr. over FY07 notching up a basic/diluted EPS of Rs.25.17.

Financial Highlights:

(Rs. in lakh)

Latest Results: The company daclared very impressive

Q2FY09 results. On net sales income of Rs.187.25 cr., it

registered a net profit of Rs.47.58 cr. netting a

basic/diluted EPS of Rs.10.84, Going forward, the

annualised EPS works out to Rs.43.36.

Financials: The company has an equity base of Rs.43.91

cr. with a book value of Rs.140.14, debt equity ratio of

1.45, RoCE of 11.46% and RoNW of 10.51% as on 31

March 2008.

Share Profile: The company's shares with a face value of

Rs.10 are listed and traded on the BSE and NSE under the

B group. Its share price touched a 52-week high/low of

Rs.740/Rs.116. At its current market price of Rs.119, the

share has a market capitalisation of Rs.617 cr.

Dividends: With a view to conserve resources for future

operations, the company skipped payment of dividends

as a measure of abundant caution

Shareholding Pattern: The promoter stake in the company is 53.97% while the balance 46.03% is held by non-corporate

promoters, institutions, mutual funds and the Indian public. Among mutual funds, Sundaram BNP Paribas, Tata Mutual

Fund, Taurus, Reliance, JP Morgan, DSP BR etc have been adding the company's shares to their various schemes during

the last few months.

Prospects: According to the World Economic Outlook April 2008, the Global GDP rate, at constant prices, has grown by

an average 4.59% annually over the last five years. The growth is led by developing economies like India with an average

annual growth of 7.28% in the last 5 years. China and India lead with a 5-year average annual growth rate of 10.6% and

Particular

Q2FY09

Q2FY08

FY08

Net Sales/Income

18724.78

9734.55

57454.59

Raw Material

1921.62

932.04

5803.12

Employee Cost

1880.74

1498.12

4133.48

Depreciation

1072.76

629.48

4286.71

Contract Expenses

4351.42

1998.28

15588.37

Oil & Lubricants con

1039.69

622.02

2932.48

Admn Expenses

1170.20

530.78

3937.09

Other Expenditure

996.02

492.32

2950.28

Other Income

30.31

138.96

897.75

Interest

1751.47

765.24

6739.44

Exceptional items

0.00

0.43

Profit before tax

6287.20

2406.24

11981.80

Tax Expenses

Current

859.41

395.45

1859.97

Deferred

651.18

25.15

839.86

FBT

18.49

7.50

56.08

Net Profit after tax

4758.12

1978.14

9225.89

Paid up equity (FV:Rs.10)

439077

380616

439077

Reserves Ex Rev Res

62674.40

Basic/diluted EPS (Rs)

10.84

5.20

25.17

Page 8

A Time Communications Publication

8.57% respectively. Demand for petroleum has been growing globally, whereas supply of this finite resource remained

under pressure.

This growth has translated into growing demand for oil. On the contrary, the supply had lagged behind this rising

demand. Global oil production, too, has declined marginally by 0.2% and every other producer, namely the European

Union (EU), OECD, OPEC and non-OPEC, except Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries, have registered a decline.

Conclusion: SVOGESL is the largest seismic data operator in India and also the largest operator of land breaks. Moreover,

it has rapidly emerged as a key player in the upstream sector of the hydrocarbon industry.

At its current market price of Rs.119, the share is traded less than 6 times its FY08 earnings and around 3.5 times its

projected FY09 earnings. The share of Aban Loyd is discounted more than 25 times its earnings whereas SVOGESL is

discounted by less than 4 times. Considering its excellent performance and bright prospects, the shares of SVOGESL may

be considered for investment with a medium-to-long-term perspective. Moreover, the share is currently available around

its book value of Rs.140, which makes it quite an attractive pick at present levels.

Biggest accounting scandal takes its toll

By Ashok D. Singh

Satyam Computer's promoter/chairman, Ramalinga Raju's confession of India's biggest accounting scandal which came

to light on Wednesday, 7 January 2009 spoilt a truncated week as investors confidence was shaken by this IT major.

Volatility was high throughout the week. The BSE Sensex lost 551.75 points or 5.54% to 9,406.47 for the week ended

Friday, 9 January 2009. The NSE Nifty slipped 173.75 points or 5.70% to 2873 for the week.

The BSE Mid-Cap fell 270.39 points or 7.97% to 3,120.79 and the BSE Small-Cap index slipped 314.85 points or 8.13% to in

the week. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The barometer BSE Sensex is down 11800.30 points or 55.64% from its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

Inflation has been on a sustained fall since peaking at a 16-year high of 12.91% in the week to 2 August 2008 raising hopes

of further softening of interest rates from the RBI. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation rate fell to a 10-month low

of 5.91% for the week ended 27 December 2008 from 6.38% in the previous week, government data released on Friday, 9

January 2009 showed.

The RBI after trading hours on Friday, 2 January 2009, cut the repo rate and the reverse repo rate by 100 bps each with

immediate effect. Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks and reverse repo rate is the rate at which

RBI accepts deposits from banks. After the latest cuts, the repo rate is now at 5.5% and the reverse repo is now at 4%, the

lowest ever.

The RBI has also announced a cut in cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of deposits banks must keep with the central

bank by 50 bps to 5% w.e.f. 17 January 2009. Lower interest rates may revive the domestic economy, which has been

slowing due to high interest rates and the global financial crisis.

Complementing the monetary easing by RBI, the government enhanced the spending power of states with specific

measures to boost credit availability in the

second fiscal stimulus package. It offered

additional sops to exporters and the small-

scale sector besides raising the level of

protection for cement and steel sectors a tad.

It has also incentivised purchase of

commercial vehicles.

Credit availability has been hiked in a variety

of ways, the interest ceiling on external

commercial borrowings has been removed;

the cap on foreign institutional investments in the domestic corporate debt market has been jacked up two-and-a-half

times from $6 billion to $15 billion; a special purpose vehicle is being created to lend to non-banking finance companies to

the tune of Rs.25,000 cr.; Indian Infrastructure Finance Company is being permitted to raise another Rs.30,000 cr. by

means of tax-free bonds, and states are allowed to borrow an additional Rs.30,000 cr. from the market.

In addition, public sector banks would be given additional capital to the extent of Rs.20,000 cr. over the next two years so

that they can lend roughly 10 times as much additionally.

The Bank of England (BOE) cut rates to the lowest level in its 315-year history taking it into uncharted territory as it

attempts to ward off a prolonged recession. The BOE cut borrowing costs by 50 bps to a record low of 1.5% on Thursday,

8 January 2009, amid signs that Britain is heading for a deep recession.

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A Time Communications Publication

The move follows aggressive cuts by other central banks in mid-December 2008. The US Federal Reserve has already

slashed its key interest rate to a record low in the range of zero to 0.25%, while the Bank of Japan has dropped its rate to

almost nothing at 0.1%.

Trading for the week started on an upbeat note on Monday, 5 January 2009 as coordinated fiscal and monetary measures

by policymakers over the weekend to boost growth and global markets. The BSE Sensex rose 317.38 points, or 3.19%, to

10,275.60 and the NSE Nifty rose 74.70 points, or 2.45%, to 3,121.45 on that day.

Key benchmark indices showed a divergent trend on Tuesday, 6 January 2009 with the Sensex rising and the broader-

based NSE Nifty declining. The trading session was choppy with the market caught between concerns about Q3 results

and the coordinated fiscal and monetary measures by policymakers to booster growth. The BSE Sensex was up 60.33

points, or 0.59%, to 10,335.93. The NSE Nifty fell 8.65 points, or 0.28%, to 3,112.80, on that day.

Satyam Computer's shocking accounting scam estimated at over Rs.7,000 cr. sent the market tumbling on Wednesday, 7

January 2009. The BSE Sensex plunged 749.05 points, or 7.25%, to 9,586.88 and the NSE Nifty fell 192.40 points, or 6.18%,

to 2,920.40, on that day.

The financial markets were closed on Thursday, 8 January 2009 on account of Moharum.

Caution ahead of US non-farm payroll data for December 2008 and fragile sentiment post IT major Satyam Computer's

massive accounting scandal weighed on the market on Friday, 9 January 2009. The BSE Sensex lost 180.41 points, or

1.88%, to 9,406.47 and the NSE Nifty fell 47.40 points, or 1.62%, to 2,873, on that day.

Larsen & Toubro slumped 12.46% to Rs.720.10 as the company will incur huge losses on shares of Satyam it bought before

the scandal. L&T had bought shares in Satyam earlier this month and holds 3.95% stake in the company, L&T chairman A

M Naik said in a television interview on Friday, 9 January 2009.

Ranbaxy Laboratories fell 12.53% to Rs.218.90 after Japan's third-largest drugmaker, Daiichi Sankyo Co, said on 5 January

2009 it would book an appraisal loss of 359.5 billion yen ($3.9 billion) on a parent-company basis on its stake in Ranbaxy

Laboratories. Daiichi Sankyo paid nearly 500 billion yen for a 63.9% stake it acquired in the major generic drug maker last

year. Hindustan Unilever rose 6.49% to Rs.263.50 on defensive buying.

The Sensex lost 551.75 points to close at 9,406.47 last week. The Q3FY09 results will dictate the near term trend of the

market. Market expects poor Q3FY09 earnings from Indian corporates due to high input costs, the credit crunch and high

interest rates coupled with the burden of piled-up inventories. Infosys Technologies will unveil its Q3FY09 earnings on

Tuesday, 13 January 2009. Infosys could well miss its Q3 earnings forecast in dollar terms, hurt by lower volumes and

cross currency movements. HDFC Bank, Bajaj Auto and Power Finance Corporation will unveil their December 2008

quarterly results in the week. The sentiment may also remain edgy with investor confidence shattered by the massive

over Rs.7000 cr. accounting scam at IT major Satyam Computer Services.

Undercurrent still strong

By G. S. Roongta

The stock market is certainly facing one of the worst times on account of the series of negative and damaging news that

have surfaced in quick succession. The fate of the stock market thus gets eclipsed with bad omens that hit no sooner that

it settles down to breathe a sigh of relief. In its attempt to pierce the Sensex 10,000 level or the Nifty 3000

level, it gets hit by some adverse news time and again. These important levels have been hit not once,

twice or thrice but several times ever since the stock market developed a severe stroke first time in

January 2008 when the FIIs hurriedly unloaded stocks worth Rs.17,000 – 18,000 cr. in just 10-12 days on

the back of the sub-prime crisis that surfaced in USA.

Last week, Satyam Computer Services, the biggest corporate fraud of Rs.7000 cr. dominated the market

and the media after its chairman, B. Ramalingam Raju, confessed to the fraud in his letter to the Board of

Directors copied to SEBI on Wednesday, 7 January 2009. Coming as it did after his abortive bid to get

Satyam to buy over two family companies, Maytas Infrastructure and Maytas Properties, sent the stock crashing like a

pack of cards, which took the entire market along with it as it closed with a loss of 749.05 points on the Sensex. This

changed the entire mood of the market, which had been building up for the past few weeks after the sops announced by

the RBI and the government.

This questionable takeover of family concerns objected to by large stakeholders alerted independent directors of the

company to question the sagacity of the move and led to a few resignations thereafter. Raju's attempt to salvage his

company and his own image became all the more difficult as all stakeholders concerned started scrutinizing Satyam,

which finally unnerved Raju leading to the confession and his arrest on Friday night after the government superceded the

company's Board. In Raju's own words, he had dared to ride a tiger and was always worried about being devoured by it

MARKET

G.S. Roongta

Page 10

A Time Communications Publication

as it really happened! What shocked the market and the corporate world was that Raju had been cooking his books for the

past several years and the fourth largest Indian IT software company was indeed built like a pack of cards.

The company, which had been censured for poor corporate governance when it proposed the takeover of the Maytas'

twins, was now in the docks as a common fraudster that had taken all stakeholders for a ride and left them high and dry

in these challenging times when there is a global economic downturn. Ironically, Satyam had won an award for corporate

governance just last year! But Raju's public confession through an email to the SEBI chairman, C. B. Bhave, on

Wednesday, 7 January 2008, had its own dramatic impact as it was made public after 45 minutes during which it was

shared with the stock exchanges and referred to the company headquarters in Hyderabad for verification. It's a matter of

open conjecture whether knowledgeable persons took advantage of this sensitive information as the Sensex had opened

strong at 10,424.96 and the CNX Nifty at 3112.80 and moved higher to 10469.72 and 3147.20 respectively in the next 45

minutes before the news hit the market. Surprisingly, the Satyam share opened at the previous day's close of Rs.179.10

but rose to a high of Rs.188.70 before it hit the dirt trail to end the day at Rs.30.70. Is there any plausible explanation how

the Satyam share rose when the authorities and the company management were seized with the chairman's confession of

the fraud that he had been perpetrating for the past several years?

This leads me to wonder whether Rajalangim Raju is alone responsible for this scam or there are other persons in league

with him in creating this major scam. It is not easy for any chairman or managing director of a globally reputed company

to cook the books so easily and for several years without a doubt of suspicion. Investigations hereafter will see many

more skeletons falling out of the cupboards and the entire IT sector will have to get together to salvage the image of the

Indian IT industry and rebuild the confidence of its overseas customers to maintain its chart of growth.

Every fraud or scam when it surfaces has an immediate impact but tends to be forgotten over a period of time. We have

seen this happen with big bull Harshad Mehta in 1992 followed by the Ketan Parekh scam of 2000 and more recently by

the F&O scam of 2008. This was followed by the financial crisis triggered by the sub-prime crisis in USA and Europe from

which the world has yet to recover. But all scams were followed by higher levels and there is no reason to believe that it

will not be so again. Going by the market movements on Friday, 9 January 2008, the first trading day after the Satyam

episode hit the market, I am inclined to believe that the undercurrent is still strong and the market will undertake a firm

upward journey sooner than later.

By Saarthi

Vivimed Labs Ltd. (Code: 532660) (Rs.40.45)

is a speciality chemicals manufacturer used in oral care, sun care, skin

care, hair care, natural extracts, preservatives, anti-microbial, anti-oxidants, anti-aging molecules etc. In fact, it is the

world's second largest manufacturer of Triclosan - an anti-bacterial used for oral care and one of the top three companies

for Avis – a chemical that improves ultra violet (UV) absorbing ability of sunscreens. Last year, it acquired 100% stake in

M/s. James Robinson, UK, which is a global manufacturer and supplier of speciality chemicals used in hair dyes,

pharmaceuticals and photographic films/prints to ophthalmic sunglasses. Recently, the company decided to acquire Har-

met International Inc., USA, a small importer of pharmaceutical & cosmetic products. Organically as well, the company

has been expanding capacity and has chalked out a greenfield expansion plan in Uttarakhand and Hyderabad. Presently,

it boasts of five manufacturing facilities spread across Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Considering its

Q1FY09 results and the acquisition of an UK company, Vivimed is expected to report consolidated sales of over Rs.225 cr.

with net profit of Rs.17 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.18 on its current equity of Rs.9.40 cr. Earlier, it had raised about Rs.60

cr. through the FCCB route, which may not get converted into equity considering the CMP. Accumulate between Rs.30-40

levels for handsome gains over the long-term.

******

Being the Asia's largest manufacturer of air compressors,

Elgi Equipments Ltd. (Code: 522074) (Rs.30.70)

is involved

in the design, development and production of exhaustive range of electric and diesel powered, centrifugal, reciprocating,

borewell, railway air compressors that have a wide range of applications catering to almost all sectors of industry. It also

derives 20% revenue by providing total service station solutions through the supply of a range of equipment and tools for

two, three & four wheelers. Importantly, the company deals in or manufactures over 128 equipments generally required

by full-fledged garages. However, to concentrate on each business segment, the company is hiving off its automotive

equipment business into a separate, wholly-owned subsidiary called ATS-Elgi Ltd. Lately, to cash on its rich experience,

the company has also started offering end-to-end mechanical engineering solutions and contract manufacturing services

of precision engineered part to clients who seek cost-effective, subcontracting solutions. It also plans to enhance its global

presence for which it has formed a subsidiary in China and has also entered into a joint venture with M/s. J P Sauer &

Sohn, Germany, for manufacturing air compressors. For FY09, it is expected to report a topline of Rs.450 cr. and

bottomline of Rs.35 cr. i.e. an EPS of Rs.6 on its equity of Rs.6.30 cr. having a face value of Rs.1 per share. A screaming buy

at current levels.

STOCK WATCH

Page 11

A Time Communications Publication

******

A part of the B. M. Thapar Group,

Greaves Cotton Ltd. (Code: 501455) (Rs.76.50)

is engaged in production of

diesel/petrol/LPG engines for power generation, agro equipments and automotives apart from manufacturing gensets,

agro equipment and construction equipments. It is also engaged in marketing high technology systems for marine,

aviation and electronic applications. In 2007, to enhance its presence in the global market, it acquired Bukh Farymann

Diesel GmbH (renamed as Greaves Farymann Diesel GmbH), which is engaged in the manufacture and marketing of

single cylinder diesel engines. However, it is reporting a loss due to the weak economic conditions in USA and Europe.

On the other hand, Greaves Cotton is also facing lower demand for its automotive engine in India due to a slowdown in

the 3-wheeler segment. But its infrastructure equipments business is doing exceedingly well. To keep the momentum

going, the company has been expanding its product portfolio by introducing new products, tapping new markets and

creating new manufacturing facilities and has set up new units at Aurangabad, Pune and Gummidipoondi. Also, the

recent fall in all commodity prices will ease some pressure on its input costs. Although it may again report a sharp decline

in net profit for FY09, it is still estimated to clock a turnover of Rs.1350 cr. with PAT of Rs.75 cr., which will lead to an EPS

of Rs.15 on its equity of Rs.48.80 cr. At its current EV of Rs.400 cr., it is worth a buy.

******

Being a 67% subsidiary of Honda Motor Co., Japan,

Honda Siel Power Products Ltd. (Code: 522064) (Rs.153.80)

the undisputed leader in portable generators with its 'Honda' brand commanding over 70% market share. In fact, the

company boasts of launching India's first LPG run gensets, which are doing extremely well along with its super silent

series. For the first time, its domestic sales volume has crossed 100,000 at 112,517 units in FY08. At the same time to

reduce input costs, the company has indigenised some of the critical engine parts, which it used to import earlier. Thus it

has successfully reduced the import content to 19% from 22% and is further slated to bring it down to 15% in FY09. To

consolidate its manufacturing operations, the company is shifting its Rudrapur plant in Uttarakhand to its factory in

Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh. Although this may disrupt production in the short-term, it will surely benefit in the long-

term. Considering its encouraging performance for H1FY09, it may register sales of Rs.275 cr. with PAT of Rs.24 cr. i.e. an

EPS of Rs.24 on its equity of Rs.10 cr. Financially, it is not only a debt-free but also a cash rich company holding over

Rs.100 cr. in liquid cash. This at the current market cap of Rs.150 cr. investors are effectively getting this MNC company

for Rs.50 cr. i.e. at Rs.50 per share. Due to the current weak market sentiment, its share price has fallen by 50%, which may

motivate its foreign promoters to buy-back and delist the company from the Indian bourses. In case they do not opt for

delisting, it may give handsome bonus in FY10 being its silver jubilee year. A solid buy.

By Kukku

From time to time, this column had warned readers to remain cautious (1) of companies where sales & profits are likely to

be manipulated, (2) high priced IPOs like Motilal Oswal and other broking firms, Reliance Power and some unknown

companies with no track record but seeking highly unjustified premiums in the IPO, and (3) stocks with lower or falling

promoter stakes.

In one of the columns a point was raised: How authentic is the information or data provided by managements to analysts,

investors or fund managers? Whether analysts cross check the same on project cost? Whether it is realistic or inflated and

whether the order position, which the company declares, is authentic or manipulated?

It is possible that after the Satyam scam, we may come across some direct or indirect connection, which may affect the

sentiments.

The

fundamental

situation

still

deteriorating as there is sharp reduction in

sales of commercial vehicles and lower

advance tax numbers.

There are reports of cancellation of orders in

many capital goods industries as most

expansion programmes are either on hold or

there is a slowdown in the implementation.

We have seen good recovery in the market,

which was either due to inflow of fresh FII

capital or that the FIIs who were in trouble

and selling have stopped selling. The revival

package has helped a lot in this recovery.

The big question is: How can analysts rely on

the profit numbers of any company? So to get

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Page 12

A Time Communications Publication

the best out of the existing system, it is always better to look out for strong asset based companies having a good dividend

track record.

This is the reason why we give thrust on strong fundamental stocks having good track record. Over the last few months,

such stocks are as under:

1. Cummins India

2. Supreme Industries

3. GSFC

4. GNFC

5. First Leasing Company

6. Mico Industries

7. DIC India

8. Indian Overseas Bank

9. South Indian Bank

10. Karnataka Bank

11. Andhra Sugar

* For H1FY09, Karnataka Bank (Rs.75.10) recorded 8% growth in NII at Rs.253.51 cr. With 12% rise in other income at

Rs.110.47 cr., the net total income posted a growth of 9% to Rs.363.98 cr. The operating profit inched up by 4% to Rs.202.40

cr. with 16% increase in operating cost at Rs.161.58 cr. Further with a whopping 635% rise in provisions and contingencies

at Rs.117.61 cr., the net profit for the period declined by 16% to Rs.94.30 cr.

Net NPAs are at 0.98%t at the end of 31 March 2008. Its net NPA was below the private sector average. Its return on assets

(RoA) at 1.37% was higher than the private sector average. The bank hopes to end the year with a business of Rs.35,000 cr.

All the 435 branches of the bank are under the Core Banking Solution to facilitate 'Anytime/Anywhere' banking.

The bank has recently opened two branches at Thane and Ville Parle (East) in Mumbai and has received authorisation

from RBI to open 30 more branches at select places across India. It has 150 ATMs and is planning to increase the same to

180 by end FY09.

The book value stands at Rs.121.3 per share as on 30 September 2008 and the scrip currently trading at Rs.76 looks

attractive against its 52-week high of Rs.286. Long-term investors can accumulate this stock for good long-term growth.

* Andhra Sugars (Rs.75.15) is engaged in the manufacture and sale of sugar, organic and inorganic chemicals. Its plants

are located at Tanuku, Kovvur, Taduvai, Saggonda and Bhimadole, all in Andhra Pradesh. Non-conventional Wind

Power is generated at Ramagiri in Andhra Pradesh and at Veeranam in Tirunulvelli District of Tamil Nadu.

Sugar is manufactured at its 5000 TCD capacity plant at Sugar Unit-I at Tanuku, a 2500 TCD capacity plant at Sugar Unit-

II at Taduvai and a 1600 TCD capacity plant at Sugar Unit-III at Bhimadole. Molasses, which is a byproduct of sugar, is

the raw material for its continuous process distillery at Tanuku that produces Industrial Alcohol and Ethanol. This

distillery has the capacity to produce 30 KL per day. Industrial Alcohol is the raw material for Ethanol and other organic

chemicals manufactured at chemical plants at Tanuku. Bagasse, which is a residue at the sugar plants after extraction of

juice, is being used to fuel the cogeneration

operation. Carbon dioxide, which is a

byproduct of fermentation at the Distillery is

purified and used as one of the raw materials

to produce Salicylic Acid, which goes into the

manufacture of Aspirin and Potassium

Carbonate.

With a recovery of 11.45%, Sugar Unit II stood

first while Sugar Unit III with a recovery of

10.89% stood second in Andhra Pradesh.

Co-generation of power is another value

added product for the sugar industry. At

Sugar Unit-II, the company has a co-gen plant

with a capacity to produce 7 MW power and

with the commissioning of the 70 tonnes

Boiler and 8.9 MW Turbine at Tanuku, it

would have around 3 MW surplus to sell to

the grid.

The company has Integrated Inorganic

Chemical Complexes at Kovvur and

Investment Advisory Service

by G.S. Roongta

Money Times is pleased to introduce Investment Advisory

Service (IAS) w.e.f. 1

January 2009, by our renowned columnist

Mr. G. S. Roongta, who has over 25 years of experience and is

well-know for his accurate forecasts since 1986.

Interested investors can visit Money Times office between 4 p.m.

to 6 p.m. on Tuesday or Thursday every week after prior

appointment with our office. Outstation readers can consult him

by e-mail or phone.

A minimum one time charge of Rs.1000 has to be paid in advance

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reviewed up to a period of three months.

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charged extra depending on the size of the portfolio & service.

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Telefax: 022-22616970 or email us at moneytimes@vsnl.com.

Page 13

A Time Communications Publication

Saggonda manufacturing a wide range of Chlor-alkali products and other inorganic chemicals. Hydrogen and Chlorine

are the byproducts of Caustic Soda manufacture that are used to produce Hydrochloric Acid while byproducts from the

Sulphuric Acid and Hydrochloric Acid plants are used for the production of Chlorosulphonic Acid.

The company has two subsidiaries, JOCIL Ltd. and Andhra Farm Chemicals Corporation Ltd. (AFCCL). JOCIL is a profit

making company and earned a profit of Rs.12.25 cr. for FY08 and declared a dividend of 70% against 60% in FY07.

Andhra Sugars has a strong book value of Rs.111 and has paid a dividend of 60%, 75%, 60% & 50% respectively over the

last four years.

There are indications that sugar prices likely to firm up in the near future, which is likely to improve its margins further

in H1FY09. Since the plants of the company are well integrated, it will get good benefit from upside in the sugar prices.

Against an EPS of Rs.8.8 in FY08, the FY09 EPS is likely to be between Rs.25/30.

Its stock price around Rs.80 looks attractive for investment. Investors can accumulate this stock with target price of Rs.125

to 150 over next 6 to 8 months.

* Stocks to watch for medium-term investment are Rajshree Sugar (Rs.45.40) and Kothari Sugar & Chemicals (Rs.16.35)

(listed only on NSE).

By V. H. Dave

Visaka Industries Ltd. (VIL) (Code: 509055) (Rs.39.90)

is a large player in cement products and synthetic yarn and

is poised for a jump in profitability on the back of further expansion.

VIL was originally incorporated as Visaka Asbestos Cement Products in June 1981 and acquired its present name in

August 1990. The other group companies are Visaka Cement Industry, Venus Tobacco Company and VST Natural

Products. In 1997-98, its asbestos unit at Paramathi Velur in Tamil Nadu commenced commercial production. Its present

capacity of asbestos cement products is 5,44,000 TPA.

Employing state-of-the-art Twin Air-jet technology from Murata, Japan, VIL's spinning mill strategically utilises German

and Indian technology. VIL was promoted by Dr. G Vivekanand.

By adhering to stringent quality control and adhering to quality systems, VIL won the ISO 9002 certificate in 1995 and

Export House status in 2001.

Its Asbestos Cement Division contributes 80% of the total revenue and reported an operating profit of Rs.41 cr. during

H1FY09 as against Rs.13.5 cr. in H1FY08 and Rs.29 cr. for FY08.

Its Synthetic Yarn Division contributes nearly 20% of sales. Despite the sustained stress in the industry, this division

continues to do well. It reported an operating profit of Rs.7.2 cr. during H1FY09 as against Rs.8.1 cr. in H1FY08 and

Rs.10.4 cr. in FY08.

VIL has already disposed off its loss making Garment Division and wrote off Rs.7.3 cr. in FY08.

During FY08, Shakti Roofings Pvt. Ltd. was merged with VIL w.e.f. 1 April 2006. Accordingly, VIL allotted 20,07,995

shares to the shareholders of Shakti Roofings, as per the agreed swap ratio of 2.29:1 on 19 June 2007.

During FY08, VIL's sales moved up by 3% to Rs.433 cr. but net profit declined by 67% to Rs.7.7 cr. over FY07. During

Q2FY09, sales advanced by 27% to Rs.121 cr. while net profit jumped to Rs.7 cr. from net loss of Rs.2.7 cr. over Q2FY08.

During H1FY09, VIL's sales rose by 31% to Rs.294 cr. and net profit by 558% to Rs.21.7 cr.

In textiles, VIL has been a focused synthetic blended yarn player, supplying to customers in the UK, France, Germany,

Spain, Italy and Turkey. Its exports in FY08 amounted to Rs.48 cr.

VIL started the commercial production of reinforced building boards from its newly commissioned unit in Miryalaguda

having a capacity of 48,000 TPA from May 2008.This unit was set up at a cost of Rs.36 cr. and for which the funds were

partly raised through a QIP placement in January 2007.

It is also setting up another 48,000 TPA a month Reinforced Building Board Sandwiched Panel Unit in Miryalguda,

Andhra Pradesh.

VIL had allotted 3 lakh equity shares and 9 lakh convertible equity share warrants in 2007 at Rs.135 per share to Sandadi

Homes Pvt. Ltd., which were subscribed into an equivalent number of equity shares of Rs.10 each, for cash at Rs.136 per

share. This was for funding its asbestos cement expansion.

VIL's equity capital is Rs.15.9 cr. and with reserves of Rs.143 cr., the book value of its share works out to Rs.100. Its

debt:equity ratio is 1.2 and the value of its gross block is Rs.307 cr.

Promoters hold 36.7% in the equity capital, foreign holding is 3.7%, Andhra Pradesh government holds 4.1%, PCBs hold

25.4%, institutions hold 1.3% leaving 28.8% with the investing public.

Sandwiched panels are in demand for use as partition material. The Reinforced Building Board Sandwiched Panels are

made of two fibre-reinforced cement sheets enclosing a lightweight core. These panels are cheaper than masonary/wood

partitions, easier to fix and take lesser time for installation.

EXPERT EYE

Page 14

A Time Communications Publication

VIL has entered into an agreement with an Australian company for technology transfer for, Reinforced Building Board

Sandwiched Panels.

The government's thrust on rural development is likely to heighten activity in the rural housing sector, which will lead to

higher demand for asbestos-based roofing sheets. Its demand has been growing considerably and grew by 16.5% in FY08.

Asbestos sheets are a cheaper alternative to galvanized steel sheets, which are also used in housing.

Based on the current going and with user industries doing well, VIL is all set to post 33% higher sales of Rs.575 cr. in

FY09. Net profit, too, will rise to Rs.35 cr., which would give an EPS of Rs.22.

With major expansion in cement sheets and the commencement of its sandwiched panel unit, VIL is expected to post a

turnover of Rs.750 cr. by 2010 with net profit of Rs.45 cr., which would give an EPS of Rs.28.

The shares of VIL are currently traded at Rs.40 discounting the estimated EPS of Rs.22 for FY09 by 1.9 times and projected

FY10 EPS of Rs.28 by only 1.5 times.

Applying a conservative P/E of 3 on its estimated FY09 EPS of Rs.22, the share is likely to cross the Rs.66 in the short-term

and Rs.84 in the medium-to-long-term. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.118/40.

******

Incorporated in 1983,

Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd. (SIIL) (Code: 532904) (Rs.30.95)

is engaged in the

construction of roads, highways, widening of highways, operating a wet-mix plant for captive consumption of wet-mix

macadam (WMM), operating a ready-mix concrete (RMC) plant for captive consumption as well as for sale to other

parties, operating an asphalt plant for meeting its requirements of asphalt and operating a crushing plant for crushing

stones/boulders into aggregates of various types for use in construction activities.

SIIL tapped the capital market with an IPO of 34,75,000 shares at a premium of Rs.98 per share aggregating Rs.37.5 cr. for

purchase of plant and machinery for its construction activity including specified machinery for real-estate construction

and for long-term working capital requirements.

The wet-mix plant and the asphalt plant are located at Powai. The quarrying and crushing unit is in Bhiwandi. The

current capacity is 80 tonnes an hour of

WMM and 85 tonnes per hour of asphalt.

After meeting the in-house requirements,

RMC, wet-mix and asphalt are sold to other

users. Its other two asphalt plants are

located at Thane and Bangalore and have a

total capacity is 330 MT per hour. The

capacity of its quarrying and crushing unit

is 470 tonnes per hour.

SIIL is setting another RMC plant with a

capacity of 60 cubic metres per hour at

Powai and a RMC plant of 30 cubic metres

per hour to cater to the needs of the

National Highway (NH) 4 Western

Transport Corridor project in Karnataka.

The company is in the process of

constructing another new crushing plant.

During FY08, SIIL posted 72% increased

sales of Rs.158 cr. and earned 50% higher

net profit of Rs.19.2 cr. over FY07 yielding

an EPS of Rs.13.6 on its expanded equity

after the IPO. It paid a dividend of 15%.

During Q2FY09, its net profit has shot up

by 307% to Rs.6.1 cr. on 259% higher sales

of Rs.66.5 cr. over Q2FY08.

During H1FY09, net profit was Rs.15.6 cr.

higher by 111% on 150% increased sales of

Rs.145 cr. over H1FY08 and the EPS was

Rs.11.2.

SIIL's equity capital is Rs.13.9 cr. and with

reserves of Rs.76.7 cr. the book value of its

January – March 2008

EBG Quarterly Performance:

100% once again

During January – March 2007, this is the second quarter of the fifth year of

'Early Bird Gains' (EBG) – the investment newsletter that spots multi-baggers, it

has scored 100% success with all 18 recommendations recording an

appreciation.

EBG has, therefore, consistently, maintained quality while the bonus issues in

excess of 30% highlight the confidence of its recommendations.

Issue

Dated

Scrip

Buy

Price

Highest

price since

recom.

Growth

02/01/2008

Shilp Gravure Ltd.

77.00

107

09/01/2008

Varun Shipping Co. Ltd.

99.85

110

09/01/2008

Celestial Labs Ltd.

66.70

16/01/2008

Repro India Ltd.

146.30

152

16/01/2008

Prithvi Information Solutions

297.00

345

23/01/2008

LT Overseas Ltd.

70.20

30/01/2008

Nelcast Ltd.

135.00

140

30/01/2008

Facor Alloys Ltd.

12.85

15.9

05/02/2008

Ador Fontech Ltd.

120.00

140

13/02/2008

Tulsyan NEC Ltd.

96.00

143

20/02/2008

Lloyd Electric & Engineering

137.30

137

20/02/2008

Ajanta Pharma Ltd.

87.80

118

27/02/2008

Vivimed Labs Ltd.

113.00

114

05/03/2008

Hydro S&S Inds. Ltd.

58.50

74.9

12/03/2008

Surya Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

95.85

130

12/03/2008

Kamanwala Housing

90.20

164

19/03/2008

Bihar Caustic & Chemicals

62.00

93.9

26/03/2008

Savera Industries Ltd.

66.95

EBG for sure profits

Page 15

A Time Communications Publication

share is Rs.65. The promoters hold 60% in the equity capital, foreign holding is 1.5%, institutions hold 4%, PCBs hold 14%

leaving 20.5% with the investing public.

SIIL's order book position has touched Rs.500 cr. It has secured a Rs.113-cr. order for nallah (drain) improvement work

from Thane Municipal Corporation on which work has already begun. It is part of the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal

Mission and is scheduled to be completed within 36 months.

It is also executing a Rs.104 cr. order for National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for the Chitradurga section in

Karnataka as part of NSDP-phase II and was recently awarded two new work orders of Rs.30 cr. from Mundra Port and

SEZ. It is also expanding its RMC business by adding two more units.

A Rs.90-cr. order for construction of an IT park from Supreme Housing & Hospitality Ltd. (SHHL), a company set up by

its promoters, marks SIIL's foray into construction of office blocks.

RMC is made on demand and can be transported to worksites by concrete mixer trucks. It eliminates need for storage

space for basic materials at the site and the consequent wastage. As compared to the global construction market, RMC

accounts for 3% of the total concrete offtake in India.

The RMC business of SIIL accounts for about 20% of revenue. The margins are substantially higher in the RMC business

compared to contract construction. The demand for RMC has been soaring over the past few years. The company supplies

RMC to companies like Hiranandani, Nirmal Lifestyle, China Petroleum, BL Kashyap and many more. SIIL enjoys higher

margins compared to its peers.

It has been historically earning a net profit margin of 10%-12% in road projects.

The integration into quarrying, crushing, WMM and RMC allows for better margins in road projects compared to others.

SIIL's order book touched Rs.469.58 cr. as of 31 March, 2008. Several large orders received recently have bolstered the

order book position to Rs.760 cr. as of now. This works out to 4.9 times of FY08 sales.

The company is exploring the possibility of new orders in the range of Rs.500-800 cr. from the Indian Railways and also

for building construction contracts from private sector players.

During FY09, SIIL is likely to achieve sales o Rs.290 cr. with net profit of Rs.30.5 cr., which would fetch an EPS of Rs.22.

At the CMP of Rs.31, the share is trading at a P/E of 1.6 on FY09 earnings. The share is recommended with a target price

of Rs.60 in the medium-to-short-term. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.196/33.

******

Diamond Power Infrastructure Ltd. (DPIL) (Code: 522163) (Rs.113.35)

is recommended for investment because of

its strong fundamentals.

Incorporated in 1970 as Diamond Cables, DPIL is the foremost power equipment and services facility for manufacturing

traditional ACSR conductors. In 1999, it undertook backward integration and put up facilities for the manufacture of

aluminum rods with a capacity of 32,000 TPA to convert aluminum ingots into rods. It is the leading EPC contractor in the

power transmission and distribution (T&D) space having seven manufacturing facilities in Gujarat where it manufactures

transmission distribution conductors, power and distribution

transformers and power and control cables. DPIL, which is

managed by the Bhatnagar Group, has Clearwater Capital

Partners, USA, Alchemy Capital and Morgan as strategic

investors.

During the last couple of years, DPIL has acquired 2 transformer

companies with combined capacity of 15,000 MVA. It has also

ventured into EPC contracts under Government of India (GoI)

sponsored RGGVY to reach free electricity to the people below the poverty line. Thus from just a conductor and power

cable manufacturer, DPIL has transformed itself into a vertically integrated strong player in the Power sector.

In July 2008, DPIL commissioned a Rs.30 cr. high tension power cable plant up to 132 KVAs with equipment and

technology from world leaders in Germany and China. On a full year basis, it shall generate revenues of over Rs.200 cr.

Its transmission tower project with a capacity of 48,000 TPA and low tension (LT) power cables project with a capacity of

25,000 kms are under construction and are expected to commence production in FY09.

It is also putting up a plant to manufacture extra high voltage plant of 132 KVA to 400 KVA with an installed capacity of

2000 kms per annum. Post expansion, by March 2009, DPIL would emerge among the top five manufacturers of power

cables in India and the only company manufacturing extra high voltage cables of over 132 KVA.

DPIL is setting up a large Power Equipment Park at village Vadadala in District Vadodara at an estimated cost of over

Rs.200 cr. It will comprise a large HT Cables facility, a transmission tower facility and an EHV Cables facility along with

the expansion of its LT Cable facility.

During FY08, sales surged by 270% to Rs.530 cr. and net profit by 58% to Rs.46 cr. over FY07 and its EPS was Rs.22.

During Q2FY09, whereas sales advanced by 93% to Rs.175 cr., net profit surged by 100% to Rs.20.8 cr. over Q2FY08.

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A Time Communications Publication

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During H1FY09, sales went up by 103% to Rs.353 cr. and net profit climbed 103% to Rs.40 cr. over H1FY08. OP & NP

margin during H1FY09 stood at 14.3% and 11.3% respectively against 15.9% and 11.3% in H1FY08.

Its equity capital has gone up to Rs.19.8 cr. due to conversion of warrants into equity at a price of Rs.151 per share (Rs.141

premium). With reserves of Rs.127 cr., the book value of the share works out to Rs.75. The promoters hold 45% in the

equity capital, foreign holding is 22%, institutions/MFs hold 7%, PCBs hold 8% leaving 18% with the investing public.

DPIL is moving up the value chain by focusing on high margin/value products. It now proposes to set up a greenfield

product for manufacture of Transmission Towers and expand the present capacity of LT cables. It will enrich its product-

mix as Aerial Bunched Cables, Fire resistant, control and instrumentation cables, 132-220 KV power transformers and dry

and resin cast transformers. This product-mix will improve its profitability.

With three critical businesses in its fold viz. cables & conductors, transformers and EPC projects and proposed

transmission towers project, DPIL will be the only fully integrated player in the power segment, having facilities to

manufacture 80% of the T&D project requirements in-house. This will gives it an advantage over other EPC players, who

outsource 60% to 75% of their project work.

DPIL has the rare distinction of having over 40% sales from private companies. This ratio is likely to further improve to

about 70% in the next couple of years as large orders come from private clients, which include L&T, ABB, Tata Power,

Siemens and Suzlon to name a few. The company is a consortium partner for L&T and ABB for their turnkey solutions.

The T&D business mainly comprises erection and commissioning of substations. A typical T&D contract involves

conductors (40-45%), cables (5%), transformers (20%), and transmission towers (10-15%) and the rest is in insulators,

fasteners and labour (20%). DPIL already manufactures around 50-60% of the requirement in the T&D space whereas

most large EPC players outsource 60% to 75% of their requirement in these projects.

DPIL's further expansion in cables (5,000 kms), transmission power (48,000 TPA), LT cables (7,100 ms) and extra high

voltage cables 400 KVA would entail an investment of Rs.229 cr.

To achieve the 'Power for all by 2012' mission and also increase the per capita consumption to 1000 Kwh, the GOI has an

ambitious plan of increasing the installed generation capacity to 2,00,000 MW by 2012 from the present 1,14,000 MW at an

investment of Rs.11,00,000 cr.

The Indian Railways has also decided to aggressively expand and modernize its network. It is planning to lay new

railway lines costing Rs.85,000 cr. In addition, the government has plans to set up a special freight corridor that will

require Rs.25,000 cr. Another Rs.20, 000 cr. has been allocated for the Special Railway Safety Fund (SRSF) for upgradation

of rolling stock, signalling and fault locating cables, amongst others. All this augurs well for the prospects of DPIL.

The Indian Real Estate Sector has witnessed a good growth in the past few years. Going forward, it is expected that real

sector will continue to grow on account of increasing urbanisation, rising disposal incomes and the changing

demographic profile of the population. This would also enhance the demand of power cables.

During FY09, DPIL's sales are expected to go up by 38% to Rs.730 cr. and net profit by 40% to Rs.64 cr. over FY08. This

would give an EPS of Rs.32. During FY10, sales would further go up by 50% to Rs.1100 cr. and net profit by 44% to Rs.92

cr. while the EPS would move up to Rs.46.

At the CMP of Rs.113, the share is trading at a P/E of 3.7 on FY09 earning and 2.6 on FY10 earning. The share is

recommended with a medium-to-long-term target of Rs.150. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.500/81.

By Hitendra Vasudeo

Neyveli Lignite

Last Close (09/01/2008) – Rs.73.15

Support will be at Rs.74 - Rs.63 - Rs.60. Resistance will be at Rs.76 -

Rs.77. Traders can buy on breakout and close above Rs.77 with low of

the day as stop loss or Rs.74. If the stop loss is not violated, then expect a

rise towards Rs.88 at least and to an outer extent to Rs.115 depending on

the market movements.

Follow-up on earlier Chart Views

IDFC - Exit long positions at Rs.64 - Rs.75 as the opportunity arises. Re-

enter long on close above Rs.75.20.

Infosys - Traders who are short can cover short positions at Rs.1136 -

Rs.1040 as the opportunity arises and maintain a stop loss at Rs.1265.

Reliance Capital - Exit long positions on rise to Rs.522 - Rs.625 range as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long only if

Friday close is above Rs.625.

Moser Baer - Exit long positions on rise to Rs.69 - Rs.85 range as the opportunity arises.

PNB - Exit long positions on rise to Rs.499 - Rs.544 range as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long on close above Rs.544.

CHART VIEWS

Page 17

A Time Communications Publication

Power Finance Corpn. - Hold long positions with a stop loss of Rs.120. Book profit on rise to Rs.143 - Rs.157 as the

opportunity arises.

Bharti Airtel - Exit long positions at Rs.653 - Rs.699 - Rs.715 as the opportunity arises.

Hero Honda - Hold long positions with a stop loss of Rs.747. Book profit at Rs.823 - Rs.880 range as the opportunity

arises.

Andhra Bank - Exit long positions on rise to Rs.57 - Rs.64 as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long on close above Rs.64 on

Friday.

Dr. Reddy's - Exit long positions at Rs.474 - Rs.507 as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long on close above Rs.507.

Nestle - Exit long positions at Rs.1521 or above as the opportunity arises.

By Nayan Patel

Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.

BSE Code: 500219

Last Close: Rs.361

Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. (JISL) is one of the largest irrigation companies in India. It has four divisions viz. Agriculture

& Irrigation, Pipe, Plastic Sheet and Food Processing. The company is a pioneer in micro irrigation systems and is also the

only manufacturer of complete drip irrigation systems in the world. It is also the largest manufacturer of plastic pipes,

PVC & PC sheets in India. It is the largest manufacturer of mango pulp and globally the second largest manufacturer of

dehydrated onions. The company has a large client list like Aditya Birla, APMIP, Bharti, BSNL, Coca Cola, GGRC, Gujarat

Gas, Hindustan Unilever, HFCL, Hutch, IGL, IVRCL, Larsen & Toubro, Mahanagar Gas, Nestle, Power Grid, Ramky,

Reliance, Tata Telecom, etc. in India and Alcatel, Amari Plastics Plc., Cargill, Coca Cola, Friesland Foods, GE, General

Mills, Heinz, Innocent, Kerry, Langers Juices Company Inc., Larsen & Toubro, Mars Inc., McCormik, Mitsui & Co. Ltd.,

Nestle, Polytrim, Saarioinen, Schumacher, Sleaford, SVZ Industrial Fruit & Vegetable, Taiyo, Unidelta, Vink, Worlee etc.

overseas.

JISL's equity capital is Rs.72.38 cr. and it has huge reserves of around Rs.800 cr. The promoters hold 32.4% stake in the

company, foreign investors hold 45.82%, government financial institutions hold 7.43%, corporate bodies hold 10.03%

while the Indian public holds only 4.33%.

For H1FY09, JISL has reported good results as net sales zoomed 108.02% to Rs.950.20 cr. while net profit advanced by

28.81% to Rs.54.06 cr. and the EPS was Rs.7.49.

At current level, the stock is available at a P/E multiple of 18 and is looking good for investment. Buy at every decline

with a stop loss of Rs.325. On the upper side, the stock may go up to Rs.400 and to Rs.450 thereafter in the medium-term.

ICICI Prudential Life launches Health Saver

To provide effective health insurance products that enable consumers meet their healthcare expenses, ICICI Prudential

Life has launched Health Saver, a comprehensive health insurance product suite that meets various health insurance

needs ranging from disease specific products to hospitalization products, and offers tax benefits under section 80D on the

entire premium paid.

It is one of the most comprehensive product portfolios offering the widest possible coverage integrating health and

savings. It is the first of its kind reimbursement-based hospitalization cover with the benefit of a health savings fund. The

product is designed to enable consumers cope with the ever rising cost of healthcare. It allows claims against out-patient

treatment, diagnostics and dental care amongst others after 3 years. It also ensures that the consumers receive guaranteed

coverage up to 75 years against actual medical expenses incurred due to hospitalization.

TECHNO FUNDA

MONEY FOLIO

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