India: Total Wealth Destruction
The on-going Oil shock, the third since 1970 will cripple the poor nations of Asia especially India. The GOI is helpless in the wake of a severe onslaught wrought about by the unprecedented hike in Oil prices by OPEC nations, decline of the Dollar, Weakening Rupee due to Budget and Current Account Deficits combined with the significant withdrawal of FII portfolio money, rise in interest rates and a sizeable jump in the price of Base Minerals and Agricultural.
Against this triumvirate of negative forces-Crude, Minerals and Agricultural prices, not a single nation on earth has any answer forget India, which has a Bankrupt and failed Economy. But the impact unlike the West will be severe and irreversible for the millions of unemployed and poor which can rise up in revolt and crime in the short run.
All those investors who thought that the bust-up period of 2000-2003 was engineered by the likes of KP, are mistaken. They have seen nothing as yet-worst Wealth Destruction will follow which will simply annihilate the middle class and severely impair the poor into further poverty.
Surprisingly Mumbai analysts live in Self Denial, but over the next 3 quarters they will see that not a single Indian corporate will meet earnings projections. This will be one hell off a bloodbath seen perhaps once in a lifetime resulting in Total Wealth Destruction.
Investors would do well to shun Banks and Financial Institutions geared to growth in Asian and Western Economies. Aggressive Private Sector Banks should be the first to be shown the Door. And why just BFSI, there is nothing but a big hole in the $ 450 bn Infrastructural CAPEX announced and parodied by the GOI, FM Chidambaram, Montek, Deepal Parekh, KV Kamath and the two witches of ICICI-Chanda and Kalpana.
If inflation runs at 10-12 per cent per annum for the next 5 years, and believe me it can, the XIth plan CAPEX will have to rise to $ 600 bn or not happen at all. The latter seems more plausible considering, we have a Bankrupt Government running Delhi.
Sell India in toto.
The problems began in the West, But will End in Asia
Earlier this year London based Peloton Partners announced a plan to liquidate its $ 1.8 bn ABS fund, the firm's largest hedge fund, after severe losses on mortgage-backed debt amid demands from Banks to repay loans.
While Amsterdam listed Carlyle Capital, Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund which has received over $ 400 mn worth of margin calls from its lenders said that it has failed to reach an agreement with its lenders who will promptly take possession of all of its remaining assets.
The fund said it has so far defaulted on $ 16.6 bn of its indebtedness and the remaining indebtedness is expected soon to go into default. The reason for the problem was that the fund's portfolio of investments was apparently leveraged at an extraordinary 32 times the amount of its equity, while Peloton was running 5 times leverage.
The exposure of these problems has been a reminder that credit hedge funds have continued to run ridiculously large leveraged positions. It is amazing that, more than 12 months since the credit crisis first erupted, supposedly smart and sophisticated hedge fund players have not realised the name of the game has changed in the sense that the game has become who can deleverage the quickest.
Bankers are no longer prepared to give borrowers the benefit of the doubt.
The conclusion then remains the same. The financial services industry has produced a monstor in its sponsorship of structured finance.
And the unwinding of structured finance is now going to produce the most devastating Wealth Destruction which conventional monetary policy will be powerless to prevent for all Ben "debt relief" Bernanke's supposed study of the Great Depression.
Still there is one unconventional approach the Fed can take, which even Billyboy has not dared to resort to yet. That is for the Fed to buy the garbage debt itself. Such a move would be extremely controversial since it would represent the full socialisation of the mess created by the peddlers of structured finance, which could happen only in the context of a full-scale crisis.
But it is the direction in which events are heading unless Washington suddenly displays a long overdue readiness to admit that pain has to be taken. Clearly, Fed purchasing of garbage assets-backed securities direct would be a fatal compromising of the Fed's balance sheet and another nail in the coffin in terms of the final death throes of the US Dollar paper standard.
Safe Harbour Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
BigGains !!
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