Sensex

Sunday, June 22, 2008

DG - Reason of us buying shasun chemical at 50

Ranitidine: Spikes in short span, can hold on for a few months

 

After sustained fall in prices from Rs 740 per kg in May 2006 to Rs 490 in Jan-Feb'08, the Ranitidine Hydrochloride prices have rebounded to Rs 700 in fag end of May 2008

Ranitidine HCl belongs to a class of medications, called H2–Blockers used for treatment of ulcers. Ranitidine HCl blocks the action of histamine (acid) on stomach cells thus reducing stomach acid production. Ranitidine HCl is useful in healing of stomach ulcers and reducing ulcer pain and has been effective in preventing ulcer recurrence when given in low doses for prolonged period of time. In doses higher than that used in ulcer treatment, Ranitidine HCl has been helpful in treating heartburn and in healing ulcer and inflammation of the throat resulting from the acid reflects.

 

The product patent for Ranitidine HCl was held by GlaxoSmithkline (GSK) and was marketed under the brand name 'Zantac'. The product patent for Ranitidine HCl held by GSK expired in 2002.

According to the industry sources, the annual requirement for Ranitidine HCl is around 6000MTPA. India, with around 3600MT of suppy, is the biggest supplier of Ranitidine to the world market. As the production os Ranitidine is very complex, the product is manufactured by few players only. These are; Neuland Laboratories, Shasun Chemicals and Drugs, SMS Pharmaceuticals, Orchev Pharma and Saraca Pharma.

 

The domestic Ranitidine HCl prices crashed from Rs 740 per kg in May 2006 to a low of Rs 490 per kg in January and February 2008. In FY07-08, the Ranitidine HCl prices tumbled down by over 22% to Rs 519.29 per kg. The condition was so bad that the prices, even on m-o-m basis, continued to fall.

 

The earthquake in China and the disruptions in production and exports, and the spike in input costs together lead to sharp spurt in Ranitidine prices from Rs 490 per kg in the week ended 18th March 2008 to Rs 700 per kg in the week ended 27th May 2008. But even these prices are lower than May 2006 levels. In this context, despite the sharp spike in a few weeks, they represent only a strong come back in prices, after two full years.

 

Rising raw-materials prices have forced producers to increase their prices. However, Ranitidine HCl is under Drug Price Control Order, 1995, which has fixed the price for Ranitidine at Rs 615 per Kg. Resultantly, the producers can not sell their produce as a price higher than the fixed price in the domestic market. This has already impacted the performance of players like Saraca Laboratories, which is enjoying a very negligible margin on the sale of this product in the domestic market.

 

Currently, Ranitidine producers derive comfort from two factors; One, there is no direct substitute for Ranitidine HCl and the complex production process for Ranitidine results into high entry barriers. Second, the Companies expect the Ranitidine prices to spurt even more, by another 20-30% in coming months. They expect no cooling-off in prices atleast until Nov-Dec08. In such a scenario, big players like SMS Pharma and Shasun Chemicals are expected to reap more benefits than the minor ones.

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Saturday, June 21, 2008

DG - Smart Investment

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DG - MoneyTimes

 

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DG - FIIs Shifting To Singapore

FIIs shifting to Singapore
BS Reporter / Mumbai June 20, 2008, 0:52 IST

Equities worth Rs 79,526 cr sold in India since October.

Foreign institutional investors have sold equities worth Rs 79,526 crore
in the Indian markets since October as a series of regulations,
including curbs on investments through participatory notes (P-notes) and
turmoil in the domestic financial markets have made investments in India
less attractive.

While the circular on P-notes is just one among several reasons for this
heavy selling, at least some of the entities, which have unwound their
positions in the Indian markets, have taken positions in the Singapore
Exchange CNX Nifty futures, say experts.

Interestingly, the volume of trading in the Nifty futures shifting to
the Singapore Exchange has gone up in the same period. The share of SGX
Nifty, as a percentage of the total Nifty futures OI, rose from 5.6 per
cent to 8 per cent immediately after the P-note curb and stood at a
robust 31.5 per cent till April, a recent report by Edelweiss said.

"P-note holders, who have unwound their positions in the Indian markets,
have taken fresh positions in the SGX CNX Nifty futures till the time
they get registered as FIIs with Sebi. The transaction cost is also high
especially for FIIs who run a long-short P-note book... These FIIs can
roll over their Nifty positions at SGX or Nifty but they prefer SGX
because of lower costs," said Yogesh Radke, research analyst at
Edelweiss Capital. SGX Nifty transaction cost is as low as 2-3 basis
points in the absence of the securities transaction tax.

FIIs trimmed their holding in the BSE 500 companies by nearly two
percentage points to 17.8 per cent, bringing it back to June 2005
levels, according to a recent Citigroup report.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been buyers of equities
worth Rs 56,448 crore in the same period. The data compiled by exchanges
includes buying and selling transactions in the secondary markets as
also block deals.

According to Sebi data, FIIs have sold equities worth Rs 25,054 crore in
the cash market. The Sebi data considers all investments, which include
FCCB conversions, investments in ADR/GDR and secondary market transactions.

In October last year, Sebi had restricted P-notes investments in the
derivatives market, asking the investors to unwind their positions
within 18 months. At the same time, the regulator permitted P-notes
investment in the cash market up to 40 per cent of the FIIs' assets
under custody. Experts said that part of it may be attributed to the
Sebi's clampdown on P-notes.

"/Nearly eight months have gone by since the P-note circular was brought
out by Sebi. The markets are yet to see a lot of unwinding of positions
which will happen in the next 10 months. This will definitely not help
the markets," said the research head of a domestic broking house, who
did not wish to be named.../

However, there are differing views on this with some market participants
feeling that the fundamental picture has changed for the Indian economy,
thanks to soaring crude oil prices and a growing fiscal deficit, which
have bothered FIIs.

 

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Friday, June 20, 2008

DG - FW: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated June 20, 2008

 

 

From: The Sharekhan Research Team [mailto:marketwatch@research.sharekhan.com]
Sent: 20 June 2008 16:49
To: The Sharekhan Research Team
Subject: Sharekhan Post-Market Report dated June 20, 2008

 

 Sharekhan's daily newsletter

Visit us at www.sharekhan.com

 

June 20, 2008

 

Index Performance

Index

Sensex

Nifty

Open

15,168.05

4,504.20

High

15,202.01

4,532.00

Low

14,519.27

4,333.60

Today's Cls

14,571.29

4,347.55

Prev Cls

15,087.99

4,504.25

Change

-516.70

-156.70

% Change

-3.42

-3.48

 

Market Indicators

Top Movers (Group A)

Company

Price 
(Rs)

%
chg

Gainers

United Phosphorus

315.00

2.36

Areva T&D India

1,367.60

2.24

ONGC

866.85

1.56

GSK Pharma

1,115.15

1.41

EIH

130.80

0.93

Losers

United Breweries

439.75

-10.43

Gammon India

285.80

-10.20

Rajesh Exports

73.70

-10.01

HDIL

528.15

-9.17

Indiabulls Financial

303.60

-8.73

Market Statistics

-

BSE

NSE

Advances

450

133

Declines

2,247

1,074

Unchanged

43

15

Volume(Nos)

27.96cr

47.97cr

 Market Commentary 

Market sinks on bear hammering 

The Sensex plummeted 517 points on a sharp hike in inflation and across-the-board selling pressure. 

The market went into a complete tailspin, as the much-awaited correction shaved nearly 700 points off the Sensex during the intra-day trades.  

 

Positive global cues like oil prices cooling off further failed to lift the sentiment, as investors instead tracked the falling Asian indices since early trades. After resuming on a positive note at 15,168, the market turned negative and remained under the bear hug for the rest of the session. The Sensex nearly slipped below 14,600 towards the noon trades as a wave of selling in heavyweights, oil, realty and metal stocks saw it slump to an intra-day low of 14,519. The Sensex finally ended 3.42% or 517 points lower at 14,571, while the Nifty crashed 157 points to close at 4,348. Among the Asian indices, Nikkei tanked 1.33% (down 188 points) at 13,942 and Hang Seng dropped 0.23% (down 52 points) at 22,745. 

The market breadth was extremely negative, Of the 2,740 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,247 stocks declined, 450 stocks advanced and 43 stocks ended unchanged. All the sectoral indices took sharp beatings. BSE Realty index bore the major brunt and crashed 5.03% at 9,420 while BSE Metal index, BSE Teck index, BSE Bankex index and BSE FMCG index dropped over 2-4% each.

Except ONGC, all other 29 stocks in the Sensex pack ended in the red. Among the major losers Reliance Communications tumbled 6.65% at Rs489, Reliance Industries slumped 6.61% at Rs2,079, Hindalco crumbled 6.37% at Rs158.70, Jaiprakash Associates plunged 6.03% at Rs165.15, Reliance Infrastructure dropped 4.92% at Rs943.65, Bharti Airtel declined 4.76% at Rs754, Ambuja Cement dropped 4.71% at Rs84.05, Tata Steel tumbled 4.66% at Rs772, DLF lost 4.57% at Rs452.50 and SBI fell 4.11% at Rs1,241.05. Other stocks also dropped over 2-3% each.

Over 1.32 crore Reliance Natural Resources shares changed hands on the BSE followed by IFCI (1.27 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (1.15 crore shares), Chambal Fertilisers (1.07 crore shares) and Ispat Industries (0.98 crore shares).

European Indices at 16:35 IST on 20-06-2008

Index

Level

Change (pts)

Change (%)

FTSE 100 Index

5686.80

-21.60

-0.38

CAC 40 Index

4553.63

-37.76

-0.82

DAX Index

6692.71

-28.46

-0.42

Asian Indices at close on 20-06-2008

Index

Level

Change (pts)

Change (%)

Nikkei 225

13942.67

-188.09

-1.33

Hang Seng Index

22745.60

-52.01

-0.23

Kospi Index

1731.00

-9.71

-0.56

Straits Times Index

3001.81

9.15

0.31

Jakarta Composite Index

2371.78

-1.28

-0.05

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DG - Infosys Technologies Ltd - Annual Report Analysis

Infosys Technologies Ltd - Annual Report Analysis

 

The Infosys Annual Report 2007-08 contains a human touch with the key theme being various company initiatives towards attracting, training, retaining and empowering talent. FY08 was another watershed year for Infosys with robust business performance (industry-leading dollar growth), judicious expenditure management and strengthened financial position. Infosys, the behemoth, continues to move from strength to strength. Our analysis of the Annual Report revealed following interesting findings.

 

ä       Income Statement – robust growth and unparalleled size and profitability 

ä       Special dividend and increase in payout ratio reflects company’s confidence in growth

ä       Balance Sheet – strong, debt-free and highly liquid

ä       Superior return ratios generate positive EVA

ä       Cash Flows – more than sufficient to cover growth, dividends and contingencies

ä       Corporate Governance – leading across industries

ä       Re-organization to sustain competitiveness

 

However, we maintain SELL on Infosys as current valuations are above fair value. Our target price of Rs1,670 represents 10% downside.  

 

 

Please find attached a detailed note on the same.

 

 

Warm Regards,

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